Re-Tool or Rebuild: Titans Free Agency Moves Will Foreshadow Future
NASHVILLE — The Tennessee Titans are faced with a serious question as they head into 2023 NFL Free Agency; to tank or not to tank? While some may see it as sacrilegious, the Titans are in a tough situation and need to take drastic measures to correct. The Titans are in the middle. They aren’t bad enough to get a top ten pick, but they aren’t truly good enough to be a Super Bowl contender.
This reality leaves the Titans with three possible paths forward. They can take some big swings in free agency in combination with a trade for some veterans and push all their chips into the pile for a chance at a Super Bowl run. One year remains on Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry’s contracts so the timing would make sense. The issue is, that path is entirely unrealistic.
The second path in a full tank. Now, coaches and players don’t try to lose. That isn’t what tanking is. Tanking is putting a low quality roster together that ensures the team can’t win consistently. Tanking is done by executives. The dynamic with the Titans that matters is general manager Ran Carthon and head coach Mike Vrabel. Carthon’s public comments indicate he is simply putting together a roster at Vrabel’s request. So, Vrabel would have to be on board for this route. That seems unlikely based on everything we know about Mike Vrabel as a football coach.
There are several facts in play as well. Tennessee lost its last seven games a year ago to finish 7-10. There is also very little optimism going forward at the moment, with the oddsmakers at Fanduel listing the Titans' odds of winning the AFC at plus-5000, worst in the conference outside of bottom feeders Indianapolis (plus-6000) and Houston (plus-10000).
The only thing that makes tanking a realistic path is the reality of the 2024 quarterback class that is set to be a part of next year’s NFL Draft. Names like USC's Caleb Williams and North Carolina's Drake Maye are expected to be highly-valued. To be able to select either of them or be in a range where a trade up is affordable, the Titans would most likely need to have a higher pick than they do this year with the eleventh selection.
Purposefully setting yourself up to be in a better draft position could be exactly what the Titans need to do to get out of the middle. Sometimes, you take a step back so you can take five forward. This could be the year where that is worth it. Yes, the Titans haven’t gotten lucky in recent memory with top ten quarterback picks, but at this point you have to take some swings. The thing that disrupts that idea, again, is Vrabel’s willingness.
The third path is the most likely. The Titans try to “re-tool” and get one more squeeze out of the Tannehill-Henry led Titans. They sign some decently-priced veterans and add some players at positions of need. They take one more swing at competing for a title with their current core by supplementing the stars in place. Maybe, if they hit right on their signings and draft picks, they can accomplish the goal. The issue with this path is likelihood as well. The roster has so many holes and so many things would need to go right that is just doesn’t feel like a likely outcome.
That brings us to what we can learn from free agency. The Titans moves will inform us on the direction the team wants to go, no matter how realistic we think the outcome is.
If the Titans decide to drop a few bombs and make some bold signings, we will know they are serious about contending for a championship. I think names like Orlando Brown and Odell Beckham getting signed by the Titans would be an indication they want to go for it. If you see a veteran trade to go along with signings like that, say for DeAndre Hopkins or Brandin Cooks, well, it is on.
If the Titans completely sit out free agency the first week and watch names on the offensive line like Brown, Mike McGlinchey, Kaleb McGary, Jawaan Taylor or Isaac Seamulo get signed by other teams, then we will know they are not interested in seriously competing in 2023. We see some low-level veterans added in the second or third week of free agency. It’ll be known they are ok with not having a winning record and are looking to secure their future at quarterback with a top pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. This may also include a Tannehill or Henry trade in the coming weeks. It would be a shock, but the tank would officially be rolling.
Of course, their moves could indicate they are going with the third path. We could see them sign one of the offensive line names discussed earlier and add in some bargain depth pieces and try to be as competitive as possible without the risk of path #1. Maybe they aren’t signing the most expensive names and exchanging draft picks for stars, but they are trying to fix some issues on the roster and add some support for the players in place. This does seem like a feasible path forward, but it comes with it’s own risk and that is being an average team, stuck in the middle. Titans’ fans have seen this movie before.
The point here is, what the Titans do in the next two to three weeks will tell us a ton about what Carthon and Vrabel want out of this season. It’ll tell us just how far they think the team is from competing and whether or not a new core will be driving the Titans to their next playoff appearance. We sit on the precipice of some serious fireworks and fact-finding. Get the popcorn ready.
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- TITANS IMPACT BY DRAFT TRADE: The Carolina Panthers made headlines with their trade up to the first pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and even though the Tennessee Titans weren’t involved in the trade, they were impacted both positively and negatively. CLICK HERE
- TITANS EXTEND PRO BOWLER: The Tennessee Titans have agreed to their first extension of the 2023 offseason by bringing back talented long snapper Morgan Cox on a one-year deal. CLICK HERE
