Tyler Rowland's 2023 First Round NFL Mock Draft

NASHVILLE — Another year, another mock draft. No matter how many of these I do I still get excited for each one. Every year is a bit different, but one thing always remains the same, expect the unexpected. No matter how much research or scouting you do, you can never know exactly what might happen. But hey, that won’t stop me from trying to guess!

As always, grading the mock draft based on the Huddle Report’s system. It awards two points for an exact player to team match and one point for getting a player in the first round. This means the max points you can score per pick is three. If you were to get every pick right, you’d get a score of 93. I say all that to say this, here comes a 93!

1. Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama

There was some buzz that this pick could be Will Levis. It would feel similar to the Sam Darnold switch-a-roo in 2018 when the Browns went with Baker Mayfield by surprise with the first pick, but nope, I am not buying it. Young may be the smallest starting quarterback in the NFL from day one, but he has the playmaking skills and intangibles that will make the Panthers trust him to be the pick.

2. Houston Texans: Tyree Wilson, Edge, Texas Tech

Our first real surprise here. The Texans should be taking a quarterback, but all the buzz indicates they prefer a defensive player if they can’t draft Young. I can’t think of a valid reason to smokescreen that feeling, so I am going to believe it. Wilson is prototypical edge size and with some refinement could get the most out of his tools in Demeco Ryan’s defense.

3. Arizona Cardinals: Will Anderson, Edge, Alabama

The Cardinals would love to move out of this pick in this scenario to let someone come up for a quarterback. While someone could make the leap, I think Arizona ultimately doesn’t get a good enough deal to pass on Anderson who would instantly become their best pass rusher. Go look at the Cardinals' rushers right now. It is bleak.

4. Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida

Again, I do not buy the Will Levis hype. Richardson and Levis are both projects that have mechanical issues to work on, but Richardson comes with all-time athleticism and much better pocket mobility. I think Richardson is better right now and has more upside than Levis. The Colts new coach Shane Steichen came from Philadelphia with a running quarterback so fitting Richardson into the scheme will be hand in glove.

5. Seattle Seahawks: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia

Carter is probably the best overall player in this class, the issue is he has some off-field concerns that have NFL teams worried. Carter isn’t known as a hard worker and he had the pre-draft incident where he allegedly lied to police and fled the scene of a car accident in which a teammate was killed. Carter allegedly wasn’t at fault, but it was a lapse in judgement that some teams are scared off by. Pete Carrol is not. Carrol is a master of reigning in difficult personalities. The Seahawks will happily take the most talented player on the board and add him to their defensive line.

6. *TRADE* Houston Texans: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky

The Texans have a little “Draft Day” scenario play out here. They take the defensive player they covet at the second pick and then trade up and still get their quarterback of the future. Levis may have some lower body mechanical issues, but his quick release, strong arm and experience in a pro-style system will resonate with decision makers around the NFL. Houston gives up picks 12, 33 and 104 to come up five spots for their quarterback.

7. Las Vegas Raiders: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois

The Raiders are in desperate need of cornerbacks and yes, they could take CJ Stroud here, but some think Stroud has the upside of a Jimmy Garappolo who the Raiders just brought in. The Raiders need to turn things around quickly and Witherspoon helps them do that more than a quarterback.

8. *TRADE* Green Bay Packers: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State

The Packers traded away Aaron Rodgers and got picks back from the Jets. They were able to swap from pick 15 to pick 13. They use those extra picks and the first-round swap to move up and get what I consider to be the only first-round wide receiver in the draft. You have to love the irony of the Packers never giving Rodgers a first-round receiver and then TRADING UP to get one the moment he is gone. The Packers give up picks 13 & 42 to move up.

9. Chicago Bears: Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State

The Bears were big spenders in free agency as they looked to add talent to a poor roster. One of the things they did not solve was the issue at left tackle. Currently, second-year player Braxton Jones is set to start at that spot, but that is not a valid answer to protect Justin Field’s blindside. Johnson is a great athlete with quick feet and he is the perfect person to pair with the electric ability of Fields.

10. Philadelphia Eagles: Peter Skoronski, OL, Northwestern

I think this pick is the one I was most unsure about. The Eagles could go corner with Christian Gonzales or one of the remaining edge rushers or one of the other offensive linemen, but Skoronski is going to be a plug-and-play starter from day one and with Philly in "Super Bowl or Bust" mode, this pick makes a lot of sense as a replacement for guard Isaac Semualo who left in free agency. Also, Skoronski might be able to kick out and replace Lane Johnson at tackle eventually.

11. Tennessee Titans: CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State

I am manifesting it. The ideal situation for the Titans. Stroud falls in the draft due to some character concerns and a rumor he scored poorly on the S2 cognition test. I don’t care about all of that because Stroud is the most gifted passer of a football of any of the quarterbacks in this draft. The Titans don’t give up extra picks, select Stroud and cut Ryan Tannehill to save $18 million in salary cap space. Perfect.

12. Detroit Lions: Christian Gonzales, CB, Oregon

What an incredible situation for the Lions. They trade down and still land a player they could potentially have wanted at pick six. Gonzales is a long, athletic corner and now that Jeff Okudah has been sent to Atlanta, the Lions have a huge hole at corner. Couldn’t have gone better for Detroit.

13. Atlanta Falcons: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas

Hey, maybe this is crazy and Robinson doesn’t go until much later, but it seems like he has tremendous value in the draft regardless of the devaluing of running backs. You hear rumors about the Falcons liking Robinson and head coach Arthur Smith clearly wants to run the football. Unless Atlanta surprises and goes for a quarterback, they are looking at a second year of Desmond Ridder under center. If the Falcons want to seriously win now, they’ll need an outrageously good run game to take the pressure off of Ridder. Robinson could help them do that.

14. New England Patriots: Lukas Van Ness, Edge, Iowa

New England loves to stack the trenches and Van Ness ticks a lot of boxes. He is a physical player with great inside/outside versatility as a rusher. He is young and needs to develop, but the raw power and athleticism will be exactly what the Patriots are looking for.

15. New York Jets: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia

The Jets need reinforcements on the offensive line if they are going to give Aaron Rodgers time to take defenses apart. The Jets have some nice weapons on offense and Rodgers has to have time to deliver the ball to them. Former first rounder Mehki Becton is at left tackle and Max Mitchell at right tackle. Mitchell is a fourth rounder from 2022 that could easily be replaced and Becton just hasn’t been able to stay healthy. Adding another tackle who could also play some guard is the smart move.

16. Washington Commanders: Brian Branch, DB, Alabama

Some folks see Branch as a safety, but I think he is more in the mold of a nickel corner that can play in the slot and in the box. We have seen a lot of defensive backs around the league gain acclaim for manning that role. Jalen Ramsey and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson come to mind. Branch adds that element for a Commanders defense that needs more athleticism over the middle.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee

This is a match made in heaven. The Steelers need an offensive tackle and Wright is a nasty finisher that fits the ethos of the Steelers’ franchise history. There was some recent buzz around Wright and his football character. Questions about his work ethic and drive have popped up. You know who can fix that issue? Mike Tomlin.

18. Detroit Lions: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame

The Lions traded their former first-round tight end, T.J. Hockenson, during the 2022 season. They replace him here and add Mayer. Mayer is a physical player that can block and catch. He fits the play style the Lions are trying to embody. Not to mention, the Lions have a huge need at the position. Someone named Brock Wright is set to be their starter. This is a no brainer and caps off a really nice first round for Detroit.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Myles Murphy, Edge, Clemson

The Bucs were a tough team to mock. They are transitioning away from Tom Brady, so maybe they trade up to get someone to replace him. I don’t think they pay that price though. Tampa will be in a transition and when that happens, teams should just focus on premium positions like corner, receiver, offensive line and pass rush. They only prospect that I think is a match right here is Murphy or Joey Porter Jr. The Bucs ultimately decide to go with pass rush.

20. Seattle Seahawks: Joey Porter Jr, CB, Penn State

Joey Porter Jr. is a long, physical cornerback that is great at disrupting receivers at the line of scrimmage. He may not have the elite movement skills you want, but that fits perfectly in the Seahawks cover-3 heavy defensive scheme. Porter Jr. can just focus on pressing his man and guarding his outside third and use his instincts to break on routes and make plays on the ball.

21. Los Angeles Chargers: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah

Kincaid has incredible receiver skills. He is fast and quick with soft hands. The Chargers don’t have a ton of obvious needs outside of the offensive line. They could choose to add another receiver here, but Kincaid serves the same purpose and gives them even more of a threat over the middle.

22. Baltimore Ravens: Nolan Smith, Edge, Georgia

Smith has all of the tools to be a great pass rusher. The issue is the production never matched the tools and in a great defense like the Bulldogs had, it is hard to justify how Smith couldn’t do more. He dealt with some injuries and needs to add some weight, but Smith could be brought along slowly in Baltimore and will get the coaching he needs. Typical Ravens' pick to take a talented guy who maybe dropped too far.

23. Minnesota Vikings: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland

The Vikings could be one of these teams that makes a huge move for a quarterback. All the word around the league is they are done with Cousins and want to move off him as soon as realistically possible. If they don’t make the big move, corner is a great place to go. Banks is an athletic guy with an edge and would be a nice fit for Minnesota.

24. Jacksonville Jaguars: O’Cyrus Torrence, OG, Florida

Torrence is a nasty and mean blocker who plays with power. The Jaguars need more run blocking prowess on their offensive line and have a huge need on the interior. Match made in heaven. The Jags have a solid roster coming together so mocking them was a bit difficult as well, but you can’t go wrong with putting more resources toward keeping Trevor Lawrence protected.

25. New York Giants: Jordan Addison, WR, USC

The Giants had the worst receiving core in the NFL by the end of the season so their remodel of the position continues. Addison is a silky-smooth route runner that could immediately become the Giants number one receiver. Value and need match up here.

26. Dallas Cowboys: Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina

This is going to be a big first round for corners, in my opinion. You can never have too many in the pass-happy NFL and the Cowboys need someone to pair with Trevon Diggs long term. The Cowboys may have brought in Stephon Gilmore, but he is in the twilight of his career and only cost a fifth-round pick. Smith could be someone to give the Cowboys a fantastic duo for years to come. I think they would have wanted a tight end here, but the board didn’t fall in the right way.

27. Buffalo Bills: Bryan Bresee, IDL, Clemson

Feels like the Bills have been trying to get rid of Ed Oliver for quite some time, so to allow them to actually do it, they draft Bresee. This kicks off a run on interior defensive linemen. IDL is not a great group in this year’s draft so team with a need will want to take care of it now.

28. Cincinnati Bengals: Calijah Kancey, IDL, Pittsburgh

Kancey continues to get Aaron Donald comparisons and while I think that is far-fetched, Kancey is still a player worthy of a first-round pick. Kancey may be undersized, but he is a ferocious pass rush from the interior and that is the only thing the Bengals are missing on the defensive line. D.J. Reader and B.J. Hill are both great run stuffers, but Kancey gives them a pass rusher from the inside that can be rotated in on passing downs.

29. New Orleans Saints: Mazi Smith, IDL, Michigan

Drop Mazi into the middle of the Saints’ defense and watch them continue to dominate. Smith is a powerful man who can stop the run and occupy blockers so that the Saints linebackers can run free. The Saints have a huge hole on the interior so this fits a major need.

30. *TRADE* Las Vegas Raiders: Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee

The Raiders passed on a quarterback early in the draft to grab a corner they desperately needed in Witherspoon, but they don’t pass on quarterback altogether. The Raiders have picks 38, 70, 100 and 109. They can package a couple of those together and make a move up eight picks to get Hooker. A Hooker in Vegas?? Hooker doesn’t need to play right away because of Garropolo which gives him time to heal from the ACL and Hooker can learn more of a pro-style offense in the process. Unlike other project passers like Richardson and Levis, Hooker could be ready to win as soon as 2024 which matches what the Raiders want.

31. Kansas City Chiefs: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College

Flowers is electric as a playmaker and would give the Chiefs another weapon after they lost Juju Smith-Schuster in free agency. Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore have potential, but Flowers may be a better player right away. Either way, having all of them with Patrick Mahomes throwing the ball sounds like a winning formula.

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