Reasons to believe: Titans vs. Bills

If there is one game from his first season as head coach that Mike Vrabel would like to forget, it could well be the Week 5 matchup with the Buffalo Bills.

In that one the Tennessee Titans committed three turnovers (two fumbles, one interception), completed just 53 percent of their passes, had possession of the football for fewer than 27 minutes and fell 13-12, a result that started a season-long three-game losing streak.

Vrabel conceded, though, that was some useful information to be gleaned from a review of that performance as the Titans (2-2) prepared for another week 5 matchup with the Bills (3-1), Sunday at Nissan Stadium.

“There’s some similarities, but they, like a lot of teams and everybody, they’re doing some things differently,” Vrabel said this week. “I think you can look at personnel and kind of see how guys play, and what the play styles are. I think that’s always critical to look at.”

Win or lose, he and his players have to believe they will give a better performance this time.

Three reasons to believe the Titans will win Sunday

• The quarterback question: Buffalo’s starting quarterback, Josh Allen, spent the week in the concussion protocol (he was cleared to play Saturday) after he was injured last Sunday against New England. His backup, Matt Barkley, is 2-5 as an NFL starter, although one of those victories was with Buffalo in 2018. Conversely, Marcus Mariota has remained healthy through the first four contests and is the only NFL quarterback who has played every game thus far without a turnover. It’s always better to have your number-one guy healthy and playing well at the most important position.

• On the run: Derrick Henry is the NFL’s leading rusher over the last eight weeks, dating back to last season, with 865 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. He has scored a touchdown in seven of his last nine games and set season-highs with 27 rushes and 100 yards last Sunday. The Bills have held three of four opponents to less than 4.0 yards per carry. The exception was the N.Y. Giants, an offense that has comparable rushing statistics to the Titans.

• Up for grabs: The Titans’ defense is in the top half of the league for passes defensed (18) and interceptions (four). The Bills figure to provide opportunity to add to both. Buffalo is one of three NFL teams that has completed less than 60 percent of its passes and its seven interceptions is tied for the most in the NFL. Plus, two receivers – Cole Beasley and John Brown – account for more than half of the Bills’ receptions, which means it is not exactly difficult to figure out which players require a little extra attention.

Three reasons to believe the Titans will lose Sunday

• Stingy defense: Buffalo enters the week having allowed fewer than 400 yards of total offense in 16 straight games, which is the NFL’s second-longest current streak. None of the Bills’ first four opponents this season have scored more than 17 points and the Bills held two to fewer than 225 total yards. Opposing quarterbacks have combined for a 64.3 passer rating (second lowest in the league) and 5.1 yards-per-attempt, which leads the NFL. The Titans are 25 in the NFL in yards per game and 28 in passing yards per game. So this does not scream ‘favorable matchup.’

• Keep on running: Buffalo running back Frank Gore, who is 36, has faced the Titans nine times in his career, which includes time with San Francisco, Indianapolis, Miami and Buffalo. His teams have gone 6-3 in those contests (there’s only three opponents he has beaten more often) and he has produced six rushing touchdowns and one receiving in those games, which is his third-highest total against a single opponent. The last time he faced Tennessee (Sept. 9, 2018), he averaged 6.8 yards per carry.

• A happy homecoming?: Buffalo tight end Dawson Knox, a graduate of Brentwood Academy in suburban Nashville, ranks second among rookie tight ends with 144 receiving yards on eight receptions. He has had three receptions each of the last two weeks. The Titans defense allowed Atlanta tight end Austin Hooper to catch nine passes for 130 yards last week after it allowed an opposing tight end to catch a touchdown pass in each of the first three games. If that unit is not better in that regard in this one, it could be a memorable day for Knox in more ways than one.

The bottom line

From top to bottom, Tennessee has the more talented roster. In terms of physical play, Buffalo has a well-earned reputation as one of the toughest teams.

As long as Tennessee avoids the kinds of miscues that doomed it in last season’s meeting – particularly the turnovers – it should be able to take advantage of playing at home for the first time in three weeks and win.