Inside the AFC South: Pivotal Games

Every Saturday, reporters covering the AFC South teams for SI.com’s NFL community will weigh one aspect of the division as it relates to each of the franchises, the Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans.

This week we look at the most pivotal game on each team’s schedule.

TENNESSEE TITANS

For a team that has Super Bowl aspirations after being one of last season’s final four, there are plenty of contests that look pivotal. The Titans are eager to host one or more playoff games, which makes success in the division paramount. The schedule also includes matchups with teams that made them look bad in 2019, Buffalo and Denver.

Without question, though, the one that looms particularly large is the Nov. 22 trip to Baltimore.

Beyond the fact that it is a return to the site of the Titans’ divisional playoff upset of last season’s best regular-season club, the game against the Ravens starts a stretch in which five of the final seven games are on the road. Those five include all three visits to Tennessee’s AFC South rivals and a prime-time clash with Green Bay.

If things go well through the first nine games and the Titans are at or near the top of their division, they will be hard pressed to defend their position over that closing stretch. If they struggle early, it will be a challenge to make up ground with a steady stream of road games against quality opponents.

Either way, Tennessee will need a win at Baltimore to set the stage for what is to come, particularly since the preceding contest is a Thursday night home game against Indianapolis (Nov. 12). That means players will have a little extra time to recover prior to facing the Ravens and to steel themselves for the long and winding road to the finish.

The last time the Titans won a regular-season game at Baltimore was 2008, a 13-10 triumph which got them halfway to a 10-0 start. That was the last time they won the AFC South. If they’re going to finish on top this year, they’re probably going to need to do it again.

-- David Boclair, AllTitans

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

If the Colts are going to be legitimate AFC playoff contenders, they must get off to a fast start. Six of the first seven opponents didn’t reach the playoffs in 2019. The lone exception is the Minnesota Vikings, who the Colts host in Week 2.

No one among the Jaguars, Jets, Bears, Browns, Bengals, and Lions had a winning record last year. Their combined record was 32-63-1 (.338).

That’s why Week 9 should be telling when the Baltimore Ravens and NFL MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson visit Lucas Oil Stadium. The Ravens were a league-best 14-2 last season and will be on a mission to atone for a demoralizing one-and-done playoff appearance — the AFC’s No. 1 seed was knocked off 28-12 at home by the wild-card Titans.

The Colts have been presumably bolstered by the offseason additions of 17th-year quarterback Philip Rivers and All-Pro defensive tackle DeForest Buckner. If coach Frank Reich’s team pushes the Ravens to the limit in a competitive game, win or lose, that will legitimize the Colts as serious playoff contenders. The reassurance of knowing they can compete against the best opponents should benefit the Colts as they tackle a tougher second-half schedule that includes Green Bay at home, two AFC South home-and-aways against the Titans and Texans, and a road game at Pittsburgh.

If the Ravens game turns out badly, no amount of positive spin and encouragement will be able to completely remove the doubt in players’ minds that the Colts have enough to make any kind of postseason run.

Seriously, the Colts’ schedule doesn’t appear to be too challenging. The fact that they have the Vikings, Ravens, and Packers at home is a plus. And their toughest road games are likely at Tennessee and Pittsburgh.

-- Phillip B. Wilson, AllColts

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

For the Jaguars, 2020 represents a long road ahead. The public, and perhaps the rest of the league, all see the team as one that isn't even attempting to field a winning team, but the Jaguars continue to insist that is their mission.

So, with that in mind, it could be hard to peg exactly what is the team's most pivotal game. A few different ones can certainly be argued: Week 1 against the Indianapolis Colts will decide whether the Jaguars get off to a fast start, and Week 2 vs. the Tennessee Titans will be their first road test, for example.

But for their most pivotal game, we are going to with Week 9 vs. the Houston Texans, a divisional game that is set for Jacksonville. The game, which will be Jaguars’ eighth, will be a critical middle-of-the-year game because it will give us an idea of just where their season is really going. By that point in the year, the Jaguars should be settled into the new offensive scheme and beginning to hit their stride -- if such stride will exist.

If the Jaguars are near a .500 record when they play the Texans at the mid-point of the season, it very well could be a must-win game that determines whether the Jaguars can gain positioning in the AFC South or if they will be at the bottom of the division once again.

Jacksonville was in a similar must-win game vs. the Texans in Week 9 in 2019. At 4-4 and within striking distance of first or second place in the AFC South heading into that contest, they laid a complete egg in London and lost 26-3. The rest of their season was, of course, a complete disaster, in large part due to a snowball result caused by the Texans loss. Jacksonville will need to work hard to avoid a repeat this year.

-- John Shipley, JaguarReport

HOUSTON TEXANS

Our attitude mirrors the NFL's apparent attitude.

Want to know if the Houston Texans have recovered emotionally from when last we saw them, losing a 21-0 playoff-game lead to the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs? Want to know if that 51-31 loss was in any way fluky? Want to know if it was a building block toward Houston registering true title contention of its own?

Look no farther than Week 1. Thursday. Texans at Chiefs.

The NFL loves to open seasons with this sort of rematch, and the Texans talk as if they love it too. A win doesn't erase what happened in the playoffs ... but it signals the start of another march there.

And a loss? No, it won't be crippling in the standings. But it might serve as a blow to the confidence the Texans harbor in regard to any belief that they are really, truly on the same level with the best in the AFC.

-- Mike Fisher, TexansDaily