With Anthony Barr Likely Gone in 2022, is a First-Round Linebacker in Play for the Vikings?
Anthony Barr will hit free agency next offseason as a result of his restructured contract, meaning that this may well be his final season with the Minnesota Vikings. Suddenly, that means linebacker has to be included on the Vikings' lengthy list of needs heading into the NFL Draft. And it's worth giving legitimate consideration to the possibility of the team taking one in the first round, whether with the No. 14 pick or after a trade back.
Free agency gets going this week, so we'll have a better idea of the Vikings' needs after they've made some moves to add veterans. But Barr's likely departure in 2022 means that the long-term future of Minnesota's linebacker room is more up in the air than it has been in a long time.
Barr could potentially re-sign with the Vikings in free agency next year, but let's assume he won't. Then there's Eric Wilson, who is an unrestricted free agent this year and might be too expensive to bring back as a No. 3 guy. Todd Davis is also a UFA and isn't expected to be back in purple next season. Here are all the linebackers under contract for the Vikings through at least the 2022 season: Eric Kendricks, Troy Dye, Ryan Connelly, and Blake Lynch.
That's...not much. Kendricks is one of the best middle linebackers in the NFL and should continue to play at a high level for a while longer, but you need to have another high-level guy next to him. Dye is an intriguing piece after being a fourth-round pick last year; the issue is that he was legitimately awful in the 200 snaps he played as a rookie, tying for dead last in PFF grade among 118 NFL LBs to play at least 100 snaps. He looked lost in the running game, missed four tackles, and had a 119.5 passer rating when targeted (on 17 targets). That's a small sample size, but Dye turns 25 in September and needs to show a lot more in his second season if he's going to compete for a starting job in 2022.
Connelly was signed off the street last summer and Lynch was an undrafted rookie. Neither appears to have starting-level upside. Nor does Cameron Smith, a 2019 fifth-round pick who missed all of last season while recovering from open heart surgery and is under contract for just one more year.
With that in mind, would the Vikings consider taking a linebacker in the first round this year? I think it's something Mike Zimmer might push for. We saw how important linebackers are to this defense when Barr went down last season and the run defense suffered immensely. They need to be able to stop the run, play well in coverage, and rush the passer as blitzers (often lining up close to the line of scrimmage in Zimmer's patented double-A gap look).
Taking a first-round rookie this year would allow them to handle No. 3 linebacker duties for a season (assuming Wilson isn't re-signed) before taking on an every-down role in 2022. They could also wait until the third round or later to take one, having that player compete with Dye for the No. 3 job and hoping one of the two emerges. But if there's a linebacker available at 14 or after a trade back that Zimmer and Rick Spielman feel is the best player available, it's something I'd imagine they'll seriously consider even with Barr around for one more year. With so many other needs (OL, DT, S, DE, CB, WR), I believe the Vikings should make several minor moves in free agency and simply take BPA in the first round.
In this year's linebacker draft class, one player stands out above the rest: Penn State's Micah Parsons. An absurd physical specimen, Parsons is incredible as a tackler, run defender, and pass rusher. He's a slightly smaller, slightly more athletic version of Barr with more overall upside. Even though he opted out of last season, Parsons' true sophomore season in 2019 was so good that he'll probably be a top ten pick.
Parsons has all the tools and instincts to become a superstar. He hasn't had a ton of reps in coverage, but with his athleticism, it's easy to imagine him developing into at least a solid player in that area of the game. His calling card is always going to be his ability to be a game-breaker coming downhill against running backs and quarterbacks. He's incredibly tough to block and looks like he's shot out of a cannon when sprinting through a gap.
Putting Parsons in Zimmer's defense and having him learn from Kendricks and Barr for a year would be a scary sight for opposing offenses. If he happens to be there at 14, he seems like someone the Vikings would have a very hard time passing up. It's a longshot that he makes it that far, but who knows?
Behind Parsons is Notre Dame's Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, who could be a target in the late teens or early 20s if the Vikings trade down. He's a linebacker built like a safety (6'1", 215) who handled slot corner responsibilities for the Irish at times. JOK is smooth, quick, explosive, and smart. Think of him as a versatile hybrid weapon for a defense who is going to excel in coverage and (hopefully) not be a liability in run defense.
Other potential first-round LB prospects include Tulsa's Zaven Collins, Missouri's Nick Bolton, LSU's Jabril Cox (an NDSU transfer), and Ohio State's Baron Browning. Each offers different strengths and weaknesses that could be appealing or concerning for the Vikings.
The point is this: heading into Sunday, linebacker wasn't among the Vikings' top five or six draft needs. But with Barr presumably having just one year left in Minnesota, it's absolutely time to start thinking about who will replace him. The Vikings could wait until 2022 to find that player, but they also might want to get ahead of things and address it this year. And that could even mean doing so in round one next month.
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