NFL Draft: Ranking Every Vikings Quarterback Outcome on Thursday Night

Let's go over every scenario, from ideal to disaster, involving these five QB prospects.

Author:
Will Ragatz
Apr 24, 2024

In this story:

Minnesota Vikings

2024 NFL Draft

2024 QB Class

Drake Maye

J.J. McCarthy

Jayden Daniels

Bo Nix

Michael Penix Jr.

Will the Vikings trade up for a quarterback on Thursday night? And if so, which one? These are the questions that everyone's dying to know, but even with just two days left until a franchise-altering decision must be made in this year's NFL draft, it feels entirely possible that the Vikings themselves don't know how this is all going to go down.

They've been studying this quarterback class for a couple years now, knowing there was a real possibility that they'd find themselves in the situation that has become reality this offseason. Kirk Cousins is gone, and the Vikings are set up quite well to not just bring in a rookie quarterback, but give that player a great chance to thrive with a top-notch coaching staff and an elite core group of offensive talent on the roster.

If only it were as easy as picking which player they want most and pressing a button to make them a Minnesota Viking. Having acquired the 23rd pick in this draft to go along with the 11th overall pick, the Vikings possess ammunition for a trade up the board to get one of the quarterbacks they like. But there are also several other teams, both inside and outside of the top three picks, who will be jockeying for QBs in a draft where as many as six of them could be first-rounders. That means the price to move up could be steep.

"It's been a really enjoyable (process)," Kevin O'Connell said this month about studying and getting to know these quarterbacks. "Every single time you get a chance to be around some of these guys, you get excited about possibilities and potential. But it is the draft, and we're not the only team that may want to select one of these guys. So we're working through making sure we know the landscape of the whole class at that position."

Barring something shocking, the Vikings are going to select one of five quarterbacks on Thursday night. It won't be Caleb Williams, the USC star who is going No. 1 overall to the Bears. That leaves LSU's Jayden Daniels, UNC's Drake Maye, Michigan's J.J. McCarthy, Washington's Michael Penix Jr., and Oregon's Bo Nix.

Daniels, who is Washington's presumed pick at No. 2, feels like a longshot. Maye and McCarthy are the realistic trade-up targets, with the former still expected to go higher than the latter despite occasional rumors to the contrary. Penix and Nix, who are older prospects, are the fallback plans who could likely be taken somewhere in the 11-32 range, which would allow the Vikings to hold onto their second first-round pick.

Let's rank every realistic possible outcome for the Vikings, from the ideal scenarios to those that would leave fans disappointed. This is a ranking of desirability, not likelihood, based on both the players and the cost needed to get them. It is also, of course, just my opinion.

1. Maye falls to 5

I'm not a scout or an expert, but from what I've seen and read, I'm of the belief that Maye is the best non-Williams quarterback prospect in this draft. Both Dane Brugler and Daniel Jeremiah have him as QB2, for what it's worth. If Daniels goes No. 2 as expected, Maye will probably be the third pick. But that's no guarantee. Let's say the Patriots surprise everyone and take McCarthy, and the Cardinals then stay put at 4 and make Marvin Harrison Jr. their pick. That would theoretically allow the Vikings to jump the Giants at 6 and make a trade for the Chargers' No. 5 pick for Maye — without giving up quite the haul they'd need to get up to 3 or 4.

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2. McCarthy falls to 11 (or close)

While I slightly prefer Maye's ceiling, I'm also a big fan of McCarthy's game and what he would look like in a Vikings offense that would feature his dynamic ability as a play-action passer. He's got arm talent, he's got athleticism, and he's a proven winner. To be clear, both Maye and McCarthy should probably sit for a while behind Sam Darnold. But with the right development, I think both would have a great chance to excel in Minnesota with Justin Jefferson as their No. 1 target. If the Vikings can get McCarthy at 11 (or even with a slight trade up to, say, the Falcons' No. 8 pick), they would be able to hold onto the 23rd pick and add someone like Jer'Zhan "Johnny" Newton or Laiatu Latu to their defensive line. That would require the Michigan QB to fall further than expected, though. McCarthy would have to get past the Giants at 6, and the Vikings would have to make sure the Broncos or Raiders don't jump up in line to get him.

3. Trading the farm for Maye at 3

If the Vikings are going to meet the Patriots' asking price for the third overall pick — which would likely be, at minimum, picks 11, 23, and their 2025 first-rounder — they better be really confident in the player they'll be taking at that spot. Maye, who would seemingly go No. 1 overall in a lot of drafts, might be worth it. If the Vikings do this, they won't have another pick in the top 100 this year and they won't have a pick in the top two rounds next year. But if Maye pans out, that's all that really matters. I might even give up the 2025 third-rounder, too. Not the 2026 first-rounder, though.

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4. Daniels in the 3-5 range (the lower, the better)

Daniels, the projected second overall pick, is coming off a ridiculous season at LSU that saw him put up video game numbers and win the Heisman. He's an incredibly explosive runner with a gorgeous deep ball, but he doesn't come without some question marks. Daniels turns 24 this year, he benefited from playing with elite wide receivers, and he can be too quick to bail on the pocket at times. He also has a tendency to subject himself to big hits in the open field. I slightly prefer Maye as a fit for the Vikings, but I can't deny that it would be fun to watch O'Connell construct an offense around Daniels' electric dual-threat skill set. If he makes it past Washington — which seems unlikely — the Vikings could consider going up to get him.

5. McCarthy at 4 or 5

Giving up a haul to get into the top five and take the QB4 might not sound particularly appealing to some. It's a testament to my belief in McCarthy that I have this option ranked over the two to follow. If the Vikings can get up to 4 or 5 — ideally without giving up next year's first-rounder — to ensure that they land McCarthy as their quarterback of the future, I'm on board. The question is whether or not they'd need to do that, given the buzz that the Giants aren't interested in him. The longer they wait, the lesser the price (but the greater the risk of missing out).

6. Penix/Nix at 23 (or in that range)

If the Vikings miss out on the top four quarterbacks for whatever reason, they might not need to panic and take Penix or Nix at 11. Ideally, they could add a defender like Byron Murphy II, Terrion Arnold, Quinyon Mitchell, or Dallas Turner in that spot, and then wait for one or both quarterbacks to fall to 23. They'd also have the option to trade up a bit from 23 if they were worried about someone snagging their guy. This approach would, however, open up the possibility of the Vikings striking out on the top six quarterbacks entirely.

7. Penix/Nix at 11 (or in that range)

Some may disagree, but I think the least inspiring outcome involving the Vikings drafting a quarterback on Thursday is taking QB5 or QB6 with the 11th pick (or even after trading back into the teens). That just feels like settling for whoever in a draft where the Vikings have an opportunity to be aggressive and go get their guy. Penix and Nix are coming off prolific two-year runs after transferring to the Pac-12, but they're also older prospects with real red flags in their scouting reports. There are plenty of prominent analysts who gave them Day 2 grades but believe the demand for QBs will push them up into the first round. I won't pretend to know which one is a better prospect; Penix has more explosive arm talent, but Nix might be a cleaner evaluation with his accuracy and lack of injury history. Even though waiting to take one of these players at 11 would mean holding onto the 23rd pick, it would be hard to get too excited about that outcome.