What the T.J. Hockenson Trade Means For the Vikings This Year and Beyond
Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah made an aggressive move on trade deadline day, acquiring Pro Bowl tight end T.J. Hockenson from the Lions. To make the deal happen, the Vikings sent a 2023 second-round pick and a 2024 third for a 2023 fourth and a 2024 conditional fourth, which will become a fifth-rounder if the Vikings win a playoff game this season.
Here's what the move means for Minnesota, both this season and beyond.
It fits the competitive rebuild mentality and timeline
Since he took over this offseason, Adofo-Mensah has talked about his approach to the Vikings' situation being a "competitive rebuild." That means planning to contend in 2022 while keeping an eye on the future. Everything the Vikings did before the season — extending Kirk Cousins, adding free agents like Za'Darius Smith and Jordan Hicks, trading down in the first round of the draft — was done with that mindset.
With Cousins under contract for one more year, the Vikings have set themselves up with a two-season window. They've made a point to add players who are under contract through at least 2023, from FA pickups Smith, Hicks, and Harrison Phillips to minor trade acquisitions like Jalen Reagor and Ross Blacklock. In 2024, there will be an inflection point where Adofo-Mensah and company will have to decide which direction to take.
Hockenson fits that timeline. He can help the Vikings win now — with a cap hit of just $536K for the rest of the season — and at 25 years old, he might be a big part of their long-term future, too. Hockenson is under contract next season on the fully-guaranteed $9.4 million fifth-year option the Lions picked up this spring. The Vikings can either extend him this offseason or let him play out the 2023 season before potentially franchise tagging him, giving him a new deal, or letting him walk for a compensatory pick, depending on how things go.
The Vikings' early success has changed things
Yes, this is a trade that's about both this season and the future. But make no mistake: the main reason the Vikings gave up a lot to go get Hockenson is because they recognize the opportunity in front of them right now. Giving up a Day 2 pick in 2023 and 2024, even when getting back a fourth or fifth in both years, is a significant price to pay.
I'm not sure even Adofo-Mensah or Kevin O'Connell could've imagined the situation the 2022 Vikings find themselves in after eight weeks. They're 6-1, have won five games in a row, are undefeated at home, and sit in the No. 2 seed in the NFC. The rival Packers and Bears are both 3-5, meaning the Vikings have a 3.5-game lead in the division and a tiebreaker over both teams. FiveThirtyEight gives them a 96 percent chance to make the playoffs, a 94 percent chance to win their division (and thus host a playoff game), and the fifth-best odds to win the Super Bowl at 7 percent. They have a real chance to hold onto the No. 2 seed in the conference or even push the Eagles for the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye.
In other words, the situation has changed since the start of the season. This is an ideal time for the Vikings to go "all in" to some degree, given their record and the state of the conference around them. The Eagles have been incredible, the Cowboys and 49ers are potential threats in the NFC, and there are two dominant teams in the AFC, but the league is still somewhat wide open by its typical standards. Why not take advantage of that if you're the Vikings?
Throw in the Irv Smith Jr. injury — more on that in a second — and this move made a ton of sense for Minnesota.
Hockenson is a rare athlete at tight end
Even before Smith got hurt, an upgrade at tight end was a logical thing for the Vikings to consider. Smith has struggled to stay healthy, and both he and Johnny Mundt have had issues with drops at times this season.
In Hockenson, the Vikings landed a perfect complement to the other weapons on their offense. He is a rare athlete and vertical threat for the tight end position. Just look at his physical tools: Hockenson is 6'5", 250 pounds with excellent speed, acceleration, explosiveness, and agility for his size.
The No. 8 overall pick out of Iowa in 2019, Hockenson is incredibly valuable because he can generate big plays from a position that doesn't usually generate big plays. In addition to his blocking prowess — he's a good but not elite blocker — Hockenson has the juice to make things happen with the ball in his hands. Earlier this season, he had an eight-catch, 179-yard, two-touchdown game against the Seahawks, including an 81-yard catch and run.
Hockenson has sure hands and is able to break tackles and accelerate away from defenders after the catch.
In 3.5 seasons, Hockenson has seven career games with at least 80 receiving yards, and two with over 130 yards. Vikings tight ends have seven games with at least 80 yards since the start of the 2010 season, and just four games with at least 130 yards in the history of the franchise. Only one of those four performances — Visanthe Shiancoe in 2008 — happened in the last 30 years.
Let yourself imagine all of the ways O'Connell will be able to use Hockenson in an offense that also features Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, K.J. Osborn, C.J. Ham, and other weapons, not to mention a much-improved offensive line. He can catch dump-off passes off of bootlegs, beat linebackers on crossing routes, and torment safeties on intermediate routes over the middle of the field. This trade adds another dynamic weapon for Kirk Cousins, and the possibilities for O'Connell and the coaching staff are nearly endless.
Unlike Smith, Hockenson is a true inline tight end who can play a three-down role and be a major part of both the run game and the pass game. His all-around skills will allow O'Connell to be even more multiple and deceptive as a play caller.
This likely means the end of Irv Smith Jr.'s time in Minnesota
On the same day they traded for Hockenson, the Vikings placed Irv Smith Jr. on injured reserve with a high ankle sprain. He's expected to miss 8-10 weeks, which means he may be out for the remainder of the regular season. There's a chance he could return and play a minor role late in the year or in the playoffs, but it's also possible we've seen his last game in a Vikings uniform.
Smith is a free agent next year, and it probably doesn't make sense for the Vikings to re-sign him now that they're rolling with Hockenson as their No. 1 tight end for at least 2023. After Smith showed a lot of promise in 2019 and '20 while splitting time with Kyle Rudolph, the former second-round pick out of Alabama unfortunately hasn't been able to stay healthy. He missed all of last season with a knee injury, hurt his thumb in training camp this year, and then was knocked out by a fluky ankle injury caused by a teammate accidentally diving into his legs.
It's still theoretically possible that Smith winds up back in Minnesota, but it seems far more likely that he'll attempt to stay healthy and revive his career elsewhere next season.
Other thoughts on the deal
- The way this deal is structured allows Adofo-Mensah to bet on his front office's prospect evaluation abilities. By going from a second to a fourth next year and from a third to a fourth or fifth in 2024, the Vikings didn't actually sacrifice any picks, quantity-wise. They obviously lost major value on those picks, but if they can find steals early on Day 3 — easier said than done — it would make up for that.
- Hockenson will likely make his Vikings debut this Sunday in Washington against the Commanders, although I'd imagine it'll be in a limited role while he continues to learn the playbook. It wouldn't surprise me if Mundt out-snaps him in that game, with Hockenson getting closer to a full-time role the following week against the Bills.
- Hockenson won't be able to wear No. 88 in Minnesota, as it was retired in honor of Alan Page. He wore 38 at Iowa, which is available, but that's a terrible number for a star NFL tight end. 87 is available, and he could also make a deal with someone on the practice squad or IR like Ben Ellefson (82), Dan Chisena (85), or Jacob Hollister (89).
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