Preview: 8-1 Vikings Home Underdogs Against Cowboys in Week 11

Fresh off of a miraculous win over the Bills, the Vikings will be tested in a big way for a second consecutive week when the Dallas Cowboys come to Minneapolis this Sunday. The Cowboys blew a 14-point fourth quarter lead in an overtime loss to the Packers this past weekend, but they are an extremely talented team that will challenge the Vikings on both sides of the ball in a game with major NFC seeding implications.

Despite winning seven games in a row and beating the Bills on the road, there's still some national hesitancy that exists when it comes to labeling the Vikings as legitimate Super Bowl contenders. That's presumably due to the nature of their victories — each of Minnesota's wins during this streak have come by eight points or fewer, many of them involving fourth quarter comebacks — among other things.

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Some advanced metrics, like Football Outsiders' DVOA, still don't love the Vikings. And despite Kirk Cousins delivering over and over in big moments this season, there are some deep-rooted narratives surrounding his career that are hard to change, whether that's fair or not. Cousins throwing five combined interceptions in games against the Eagles and Bills this year is something that sticks with people, too.

Case in point: the 8-1 Vikings, who haven't lost since Week 2 and are undefeated at home, are currently 1.5-point underdogs against the 6-3 Cowboys this week, despite the game taking place at U.S. Bank Stadium. If Dallas remains favorites at kickoff, the Vikings "would be the 4th team since 1970 to be a regular-season home underdog with an 8-1 record or better," according to ESPN's Kevin Seifert. "Two of those instances featured backup QBs."

DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) might help explain that line. That metric has the Cowboys as the fourth-best team in the NFL (12th on offense, 2nd on defense, 3rd on special teams). It has the Vikings 17th (17th on offense, 19th on defense, 25th on special teams). Wins and losses don't matter for DVOA, which takes a team's entire performance each week into account. You can agree or disagree with its value, but it gives you a sense as to how it's possible for the Cowboys to be favored in this game.

The challenge for the Vikings this week is both mental and physical. Mentally, they have to come off the emotional high of winning one of the best, most dramatic NFL games in recent memory and get right back to work. Physically, they have to quickly recover from a nearly four-hour game that included both sides of the ball playing at least 75 snaps.

"I do think it’s going to be a significant challenge for us this week, maybe not because of the noise or the headlines but just because of the challenge of coming off of a pretty significant, physical, highly contested football game," head coach Kevin O'Connell said. "A lot of plays for a lot of players, knowing the type of challenge it’s going to be Sunday at U.S. Bank Stadium, we’ve got to get these guys turned over, prepared for a really good football team, and then see if we can have our guys at our best for that three-and-a-half-hour window."

To that end, the Vikings didn't hold a typical practice on Wednesday, opting to go with a walkthrough instead. They'll ramp up the intensity of their physical preparation on Thursday and Friday. After playing the Cowboys on Sunday, the Vikings have another game four days later, as they'll host the Patriots on Thanksgiving night in Week 12.

"We want to be prepared for Sunday, but we’re also looking at, when we kick off on Sunday, we’ll have two football games in five days," O'Connell said. "So we’ve got to get out in front of making sure we turn these guys over."

The Cowboys have gotten to 6-3 despite QB Dak Prescott missing five games earlier this season. They have four wins by at least 12 points; the Vikings only have one, and it came back in the season opener.

Prescott is back and healthy, but he's struggled a bit with a 6-4 TD/INT ratio and just 214 passing yards per game in four starts. In RB Tony Pollard, WRs CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup, and TE Dalton Schultz, Prescott has some dangerous weapons at his disposal. Ezekiel Elliott might also be back this week. With Cam Dantzler on IR and Akayleb Evans in concussion protocol, rookie corner Andrew Booth Jr. could make his first career start this week against an explosive offense.

Dallas has a solid offensive line led by all-world right guard Zack Martin, but it's not the dominant unit it has been in recent years. Rookie LT Tyler Smith, RT Terence Steele, and LG Connor McGovern all have fairly mediocre pass blocking grades, so the Vikings' elite pass rush duo of Za'Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter should have chances to impact the game. Stopping the run will be key for Minnesota.

It's on defense where the Cowboys are truly elite. Dan Quinn's defense is every bit as good as the Bills defense the Vikings just faced — and might be even more challenging since they're healthier than Buffalo was on that side of the ball. The Cowboys' defense is second in DVOA, fourth in EPA per play, and fourth in passing yards allowed per game. They lead the league sacks (35) and pressure rate (40.8 percent). Edge rusher Micah Parsons, who has 40 pressures and 8 sacks, is one of the favorites for defensive player of the year. There's a chance the Vikings will be without their star left tackle, Christian Darrisaw, as he's in the concussion protocol as well. That would be a massive loss against Parsons and the Cowboys.

Dallas has four other players — Demarcus Lawrence, Dorance Armstrong, Dante Fowler Jr., and Osa Odighizuwa — who have at least 18 pressures.

"I just think they have so many rushers," O'Connell said. "I mean, they just have so many guys up front that can really wreak havoc. They get 1-on-1s a lot of different ways, and obviously Parsons’ ability to affect the game is — he lines up in a lot of spots, he really is kind of a hybrid-type player that is one of the best at whatever position he’s playing at in our league. Lawrence has always been a focal point, a problem, whenever you’ve played this team over his career there, and then they have a lot of other guys that really can get a great rush or two in a game, and you’ve gotta be sound."

The Cowboys are solid at linebacker with Leighton Vander Esch and longtime Viking Anthony Barr, who makes his return to Minneapolis on Sunday. On the back end, they're led by All-Pro cornerback Trevon Diggs, who had 11 interceptions last season. Safety Malik Hooker is another playmaker in the secondary. It'll be fun to see what Justin Jefferson can do this week against Diggs and struggling No. 2 corner Anthony Brown.

Dallas brings a talented roster to U.S. Bank Stadium, but the Vikings will benefit from being back in their home stadium after two road wins in a row. This has the makings of yet another intense game that comes down to the final play. The Vikings will need to play well in all three phases to earn another impressive victory and stretch their winning streak to eight.

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