Vikings' 2023 Win Total Opens at 8.5, Trailing Lions in NFC North
Last year, in the first season of the Kevin O'Connell era, the Minnesota Vikings' projected win total opened at 8.5, a perfectly middling mark for a 17-game season. They went on to win 13 games, claim the NFC North crown for the first time in six years, and host a playoff game.
This year, in the second season of the O'Connell era, the Vikings' projected win total has opened at...8.5 again, according to numerous sportsbooks.
With context removed, that might be surprising. It shouldn't be. We've seen since last season that Vegas didn't believe in this Vikings team, and it's hard to say that view wasn't justified. Minnesota won 11 games by eight points or fewer, was blown out three times, and finished with a -3 point differential despite going 13-4. When the playoffs rolled around, the Vikings lost at home to a Giants team that went on to lose by 31 in Philadelphia the following week.
There have been some changes this offseason. Brian Flores replaced Ed Donatell at defensive coordinator. Roster-wise, out are Adam Thielen, Eric Kendricks, Dalvin Tomlinson, and Patrick Peterson; in are Marcus Davenport, Byron Murphy, Josh Oliver, and Dean Lowry. There's still a lot of offseason left, including next month's draft. Still, the core of this Vikings roster appears to be pretty similar, with Kirk Cousins at quarterback and questions around the interior offensive line and secondary. Thus, going back to square one with a projected total of 8.5 wins makes sense.
At this point in the offseason, I do think I'd lean towards the over, though. We know O'Connell can coach the Vikings to success on offense with Cousins, Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, Christian Darrisaw, and Brian O'Neill as the pillars of that unit. The Oliver addition should help improve the running game, which struggled last season. Defensively, Flores is a big upgrade from Donatell and I liked the Murphy and Davenport signings. The Vikings will continue to add pieces to fit Flores' aggressive scheme, particularly in the draft. Although I agree regression in the win column is basically inevitable, I think the Vikings can become a better team and still win 9-11 games if their key pieces stay healthy.
Minnesota's 8.5 total is second in the NFC North, per BetOnline. The Lions, who haven't won the division since 1993, are leading the way at 9.5 projected wins, the Bears are at 7.5, and the Aaron Rodgers-less Packers are at 7. That spread of 2.5 wins between the top team and the worst team is the smallest of any of the eight divisions, which tells you it could be quite the interesting season in the NFC North.
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