Vikings Add Josh Oliver, Marcus Davenport on Day 1 of Free Agency: What It Means
NFL free agency doesn't officially get underway until the new league year begins on Wednesday afternoon, but for all intents and purposes, it has already kicked off. Monday was the first day of the league's legal tampering period, which allows teams and agents to negotiate contracts — or finalize deals that were already negotiated, perhaps in Indianapolis during combine week — that are then leaked to reporters.
More than 90 players across the league agreed to terms on a new contract on Monday, including former Vikings defensive standouts Eric Kendricks, Patrick Peterson, and Dalvin Tomlinson, who all found new homes.
But we're here to talk about the 2023 Vikings, not the 2022 team, so the biggest pieces of news on the unofficial first day of free agency were the two players being added to Minnesota's roster: Tight end Josh Oliver and defensive end Marcus Davenport.
Here are a bunch of thoughts on what those two reported signings (which won't be officially announced by the team until Wednesday) mean for the Vikings.
Josh Oliver
Many fans were undoubtedly confused. This Vikings team has plenty of needs, most of them on the defensive side of the ball. So why was their first reported move of the day signing a blocking tight end to a three-year, $21 million deal? Aren't they already set at tight end with T.J. Hockenson?
Those are fair questions! But when you dig past the surface, the Vikings signing Josh Oliver starts to make a lot of sense.
First of all, it's not functionally a three-year, $21 million contract, even if those are the announced terms. With NFL contracts, it's always important to pay attention to the structure and details. Only $10.7 million of Oliver's deal is guaranteed, and it's backloaded to the point where it's highly unlikely he'll play out the third year as currently constructed.
The Star Tribune's Ben Goessling has the full details:
Oliver has a cap hit of just $3.5 million this year, which rises to $7.1 million in 2024 and $10.4 million in 2025. But again, he's almost certainly not going to count for over $10 million in 2025, because he can be cut before that season to create $8 million in cap space with roughly $2.4 million in dead money. Or, if he fits brilliantly in Minnesota, he could be extended to lower that '25 cap hit.
That's enough about contract numbers — those don't answer the question of why the Vikings signed Oliver. For starters, it's because Kevin O'Connell wants to fix his running game.
Oliver isn't a household name. He has just 26 career receptions. But the 2019 third-round pick is extremely good at blocking, which makes him a valuable player. Out of 53 tight ends who had at least 200 blocking snaps last season, Oliver ranked No. 1 in Pro Football Focus' run blocking grade. For that reason alone, he's an important addition to the Vikings' offense.
Minnesota had an abysmal running game last year, finishing 26th in yards per carry, 28th in rush DVOA, and 29th in EPA per rush. Whether it was Dalvin Cook or Alexander Mattison in the backfield, the Vikings had far too many runs gain negative or minimal yardage, which led to them more or less abandoning the run and throwing the ball at the third-highest rate in the league. Passing is more efficient and explosive than running, but being a one-dimensional offense isn't a good thing. Having the ability to run the ball effectively still matters.
Signing Oliver indicates that the Vikings are going to utilize more 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends) in 2023. Although backup TE Johnny Mundt played a fair amount for the Vikings last season, they were primarily an 11 personnel offense that leaned on their top three wide receivers. They just released their No. 2 receiver in Adam Thielen, and while they'll undoubtedly add a wideout at some point, this is a weak free agent class at the position. Unless the Vikings spend up on a free agent or take a receiver in the first round — and perhaps even if they do one of those things — there's a real chance Hockenson serves as the No. 2 option in their passing game next season.
Running two-TE sets with Hockenson and Oliver should help the Vikings' offense — which revolves around all-world No. 1 receiver Justin Jefferson — in multiple ways. If opposing defenses play two high safeties in an attempt to limit Jefferson, the Vikings will have advantageous looks in the running game. If defenses then adjust and bring in another linebacker to combat the Vikings' heavier personnel, Jefferson should get more opportunities against single-high coverages. The Vikings could use Hockenson the way the Chiefs use Travis Kelce, splitting him out wide often as Oliver handles most of the blocking duties.
The versatility of the tight end position — and what having good TEs allows you to do on offense — is why the Vikings value it so highly in O'Connell's offense. They brought Mundt over from the Rams last offseason, traded for Hockenson halfway through the season, and now are replacing Mundt with Oliver, who has the potential to be much more impactful. The Chiefs' success last season may cause the NFL to swing back towards using more 12 personnel, and the Vikings are trying to get ahead of the curve.
Additionally, Oliver may have some upside as a receiving option in his own right. During his senior season at San Jose State in 2018, he caught 56 passes for 709 yards and four touchdowns. He was a receiving tight end, not a blocking specialist. And he ran a 4.63 40 at the 2019 combine at 6'5", 250 pounds, which tells you something about his athleticism.
Because of injuries, Oliver didn't pan out with the Jaguars, the team that drafted him in the third round. His rookie season ended early due to a back injury, and a foot issue cost him the entire 2020 season. But after being traded to the Ravens for a seventh-round pick in 2021, Oliver worked hard to re-invent himself and become an elite blocker. On a team with Mark Andrews and 2022 rookie Isaiah Likely, Oliver's job wasn't to catch passes.
Still, the potential exists for him to be more of a factor as a receiver than Mundt was. Oliver caught 14 passes for 149 yards and two touchdowns last season, highlighted by a 4/76/1 game against Jacksonville, his former team. Even if he'll primarily be used as a blocker in Minnesota, he's big and athletic and has experience catching the football, which is all part of his appeal.
Marcus Davenport
Later on Monday, the Vikings made their first addition to new coordinator Brian Flores' defense, reportedly agreeing to terms with former Saints first-round pick Marcus Davenport on a one-year, $13 million deal. The exact details of that contract aren't yet public, but it's possible that the contract will only reach $13 million if Davenport hits certain performance-based incentives.
This is another one where you have to go beyond the box score a bit to understand why the Vikings made the move. Davenport had a grand total of 0.5 sacks in 2022, despite playing in 15 games with nine starts. Although that had to be disappointing for Davenport after having 9.0 sacks the year prior, he didn't completely fall off last season.
Measuring a defensive lineman's impact requires more than looking at sack totals, which can be fickle. Pressures are generally a more valuable metric. In 2022, Davenport had 34 pressures on 282 pass rush snaps, which is a 12.1 percent pressure rate. For context, Danielle Hunter's pressure rate was 12.6 percent and Za'Darius Smith's was 15.1 percent, although those both came on much bigger sample sizes.
During Davenport's nine-sack 2021 season, when he earned an elite 88.8 PFF grade on 437 snaps, his pressure rate was 14.1 percent. In 2020, he was at 12.9 percent. In 2019, when he had six sacks, he boasted a career-best pressure rate of 14.4 percent. So although Davenport's sack totals have been inconsistent in his five-year career, his ability to generate pressure has been a constant when he's been on the field.
Davenport isn't a one-trick pony, either. He's also a stout run defender who can powerfully shed blocks; he's never earned a season-long run defense grade below 69.3 from PFF.
The physical tools are there for Davenport to become a steal if he can stay on the field and continue honing his game in Minnesota. He's 6'6", 265 pounds, and he shined at the 2018 combine, running a 4.58 40 and broad jumping nearly 10.5 feet. Those traits, combined with some impressive college production at UTSA, led the Saints to select him 14th in that year's draft.
Although Davenport missed some notable time because of injuries during his five years in New Orleans, his ability to generate pressure and defend the run was never in question when he was out there. His athleticism and potential are as clear as day when you watch the highlights.
The Vikings are taking a fairly low-risk, high-reward swing on Davenport. And in doing so, they've put themselves in position to trade Smith — who reportedly wants to be released by Minnesota so he can seek a raise elsewhere — without experiencing a massive drop-off in production.
What the Oliver and Davenport signings, collectively, might tell us
Oliver and Davenport have a few things in common. The first one that jumps out is their age. Oliver turns 26 this month, while Davenport turns 27 in September. They're both coming off their rookie contracts and are in the midst of their athletic primes.
Why does that matter? Because everything the Vikings have done so far this offseason suggests their goal is to a create a window of contention that begins in 2024. Releasing Kendricks and Thielen — and specifically choosing to eat all of Thielen's dead money in 2023 — told us that. Recent reports that Kirk Cousins is more likely to play out the final year of his contract this season than receive a multi-year extension tell us that.
Because of their ages, Oliver and Davenport fit into the Vikings' window — their "time horizons," to use one of GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah's favorite terms. Even though Oliver's deal is functionally for two years and Davenport's is a one-year, prove-it deal, both could work their way into the team's long-term plans.
Plus, these signings are also about 2023. The Vikings are far too talented to tank, especially in a relatively open division that they just won by four games in O'Connell's first season. Oliver should immediately help improve the Vikings' rushing attack, while Davenport is a high-upside addition to the defensive front.
That's another thing they have in common: Upside. Both players have excellent size and speed for their positions. Their box score production isn't always apparent, particularly in Oliver's case, but they do things that don't show up on the stat sheet and have the athleticism to continue improving in Minnesota.
One final thing that has to be mentioned is that both players have injury histories. Oliver stayed healthy during his two years with the Ravens, but that was after injuries marred his time with the Jaguars. Davenport has missed 19 games in his career due to all kinds of mostly minor injuries, including shoulder, elbow, and foot issues. The Vikings are betting that their renowned training staff, led by executive director of player health and performance Tyler Williams, can help Oliver and Davenport stay on the field.
If that happens, they could both be in line for career years in elevated roles.
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