Vikings Draft: Trading Up For Anthony Richardson is a Risk Worth Taking
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The best move the Vikings could make on Thursday night would be to trade up for Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson. His athletic tools, his mental processing, and what he could become in Kevin O'Connell's offense make it worth paying a hefty price to go up and get him.
Richardson is a somewhat divisive prospect. His supporters point to his almost unparalleled physical tools and the examples of high-level quarterback play littered across his college tape as reasons why he has the most upside of any QB prospect in this year's draft class. His detractors usually go to the stats, citing Richardson's career 54.7 completion percentage and 24/15 touchdown-to-interception ratio while labeling him as a risky project in need of major development.
The film, I believe, is more valuable than the stats. This Richardson video from The Ringer's Ben Solak won me over. In it, Solak makes the case through film breakdown that although Richardson is a "project" in some ways, he's actually a lot further along than many people may realize. Not only is his athleticism reminiscent of players like Josh Allen and Cam Newton, Richardson knows how to read defenses and manipulate leverages in coverage after the snap. He also doesn't take off and scramble nearly as much as you might expect from a quarterback with his athleticism, instead demonstrating excellent pocket movement to evade pressure and extend plays while keeping his eyes downfield.
The appeal for Richardson starts with his jaw-dropping physical traits. He's 6'4", 244 pounds, possesses 4.43 speed with ridiculous acceleration and explosiveness, and has a military-grade rocket of a right arm.
Richardson's elite arm strength allows him to make any throw you could ask for; he's able to generate remarkable distance and velocity while making it look almost effortless. When he gets outside of the pocket, he looks natural throwing off-platform. As a runner, Richardson racked up 1,116 yards and 12 touchdowns during his Florida career, including four 100-yard rushing performances. Not only does he have speed and elusiveness, but his frame makes him awfully difficult to bring down in the open field. Even as his passing develops, he'll be a Newton, Allen, Justin Fields-level runner as soon as he sees NFL action.
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And to be clear, Richardson does need a fair amount of development. His mechanics and accuracy were inconsistent at Florida, even if a lackluster supporting cast contributed to his low completion percentage. He was particularly inaccurate on short throws, which will need to be fixed at the next level. Richardson has to become more consistent with his ball placement, learn how to throw with anticipation more frequently, and make better decisions with the football in order to reach his ceiling.
With that said, it's worth noting that Richardson is still 20 years old — he turns 21 in May — and started all of 13 games at Florida. Of course he's not a finished product yet. He needs seasoning in the NFL, and that's a big reason why the Vikings would be a great fit for him. Richardson could sit for a year under Kirk Cousins, learn from O'Connell and the rest of the Minnesota coaching staff, and take over a potent offense in 2024. Playing behind two All-Pro-caliber tackles while throwing to Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson would ease any young quarterback's transition to the NFL.
"Richardson’s volatile accuracy and decision-making cloud his evaluation, but he is a freakshow talent with special size, speed and arm strength, and he put enough promising plays on film to be optimistic about his potential ceiling," The Athletic's Dane Brugler wrote in his annual draft guide. "He fits an RPO or NFL vertical-passing offense that will also utilize his athleticism, but he needs on-field reps and a patient coaching staff willing to weather the early storm."
The question is how high the Vikings would have to go to land Richardson. Anything can happen, but as of late, he seems like the most likely of the top four QBs — which also includes Bryce Young, Will Levis, and C.J. Stroud — to fall out of the top four picks. Young is presumably headed to the Panthers at No. 1 overall, but the Texans aren't a lock to take a QB at 2 and the Cardinals definitely won't if they stay at 3. If the Texans and Colts take Stroud and Levis in some order — and especially if the Texans don't pick a QB — Richardson could start to slide a bit.
NBC's Peter King has Richardson falling all the way to the Vikings' pick at 23 in his one mock draft of the year, which is notable but still seems quite unlikely. The safest way for the Vikings to get Richardson, if they believe in his future, would be moving all the way up to 3 in a blockbuster deal with the Cardinals. That probably requires multiple future firsts to execute, but it would still easily be worth it if Richardson becomes a star. The Vikings could wait and hope Richardson falls, perhaps doing something like moving up to the Eagles' 10th pick to get him in front of the Titans at 11, but then he could get taken by the Colts at 4 or a team trading up into the top nine picks.
There's a lot of risk involved with the idea of the Vikings trading up for any quarterback in this draft. They have other holes to address, and if the QB doesn't pan out, they'd have lost valuable picks while potentially frustrating Jefferson.
The upside makes it worthwhile. There's nothing more important in football than having a star quarterback, especially one on a rookie contract. The Vikings haven't gone anywhere with Cousins, and this could be the moment for Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and O'Connell to go get a young quarterback who could open up a sustained Super Bowl window if he reaches his ceiling.
Between trading up, standing pat, and moving back, the Vikings have countless options with their first pick on Thursday night. Their best move is to take a big swing by trading whatever's necessary to draft Anthony Richardson.
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