Inside The Vikings

What ESPN's FPI Says About Vikings' Strength of Schedule, Playoff Odds

The Vikings aren't the favorites in the NFC North entering the 2023 season.
Will Ragatz|
What ESPN's FPI Says About Vikings' Strength of Schedule, Playoff Odds
What ESPN's FPI Says About Vikings' Strength of Schedule, Playoff Odds

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ESPN's Football Power Index, like every other model or market, projects significant regression from the Vikings in 2023.

FPI has the Vikings as the league's 15th-best team heading into this season, neck and neck with the Giants with a +0.5 score. They're four spots below the Lions at 1.4. Minnesota's 10th-ranked offense is offset by its 22nd-ranked defense.

It all comes out to a projected record of 8.6-8.3, which is almost perfectly aligned with the team's Vegas over/under win total of 8.5. 

The Vikings have a 51.8 percent chance to make the playoffs, according to FPI, and just a 28.7 percent chance to defend their title in the NFC North. The Lions have the best odds to win the division at 43.2 percent, with the Bears (15.9) and Packers (12.2) combining for the final 28.1 percent. The model gives the Vikings a 2.3 percent chance to win the Super Bowl, 13th-best among all teams.

The Vikings' strength of schedule is neither difficult nor easy, ranking as the league's 15th-toughest by FPI. (PFF's ELO views it a little differently, ranking the Vikings' schedule as the NFL's eighth-hardest). Although the Vikings have games against five of the NFL's top seven teams in FPI (the Chiefs, Eagles, Bengals, 49ers, and Chargers), they also play seven games against bottom-nine teams (the Buccaneers, Panthers, Falcons, Packers x2, and Bears x2) and two more against teams in the low 20s (the Raiders and Saints).

Given the top-heaviness of the schedule, it'll be important for the Vikings to handle business in their games against projected inferior competition. Ultimately, the division may come down to two games against the Lions in the season's final three weeks.

Picking Every Game on the Vikings' 2023 Schedule: How Many Wins This Season?

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Will Ragatz
WILL RAGATZ

Will Ragatz is a senior writer for Vikings On SI, who also covers the Twins, Timberwolves, Gophers, and other Minnesota teams. He is a credentialed Minnesota Vikings beat reporter, covering the team extensively at practices, games and throughout the NFL draft and free agency period. Ragatz attended Northwestern University, where he studied at the prestigious Medill School of Journalism. During his time as a student, he covered Northwestern Wildcats football and basketball for SB Nation’s Inside NU, eventually serving as co-editor-in-chief in his junior year. In the fall of 2018, Will interned in Sports Illustrated’s newsroom in New York City, where he wrote articles on Major League Baseball, college football, and college basketball for SI.com.

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