Picking Every Game on the Vikings' 2023 Schedule: How Many Wins This Season?
The Minnesota Vikings' 2023 regular season schedule has arrived.
Coming off a 13-win season, the Vikings are set to play five primetime games in year two under Kevin O'Connell. They'll be tested against the league's best, with matchups against each of the final four teams remaining in last season's playoffs. And there's a real possibility the NFC North could be determined by two meetings between the Vikings and Lions in the final three weeks of the season.
Despite last year's success, the Vikings' point differential and record in one-score games suggests they could be due for quite a bit of regression in 2023. Vegas sportsbooks have set Minnesota's over-under win total for this season at 8.5, meaning they believe this will be a .500 team. The reality is that even if the Vikings play better football this year, they're very likely to end up with fewer than 13 wins because of the difficulty of their schedule and some inevitable one-score defeats.
O'Connell and company will hope to improve upon last season by scoring points in bunches, playing more aggressive defense under new coordinator Brian Flores, and continuing to master situational football. They believe they have the talent on both sides of the ball to contend for another division title and make a run in the postseason.
Let's go through every game on the schedule, preview it briefly, and pick a winner.
Week 1: vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2023 projected win total: 6.5)
Tom Brady is finally done, which means Tampa Bay is entering a bit of a rebuilding period. Baker Mayfield is the bridge quarterback, and he's gone 8-16 as a starter over the past two seasons. The Bucs still have some big-name talent on both sides of the ball, but it's hard to see them pulling off a road upset in the Vikings' season opener.
The pick: Vikings (1-0)
Week 2: at Philadelphia Eagles (10.5) on Thursday Night Football
For the second consecutive season, the Vikings will head to Philadelphia for a primetime game in Week 2. Last year, Kirk Cousins threw three interceptions and Jalen Hurts ran wild in a dominant Eagles victory. That loss looked rough for Minnesota at the time, but it became much more understandable when Philly went 14-3 and very nearly won the Super Bowl. Although I expect this to be a much closer game with Flores replacing Ed Donatell, I think the Eagles are the better team on both sides of the ball and will handle business at home on a short week.
The pick: Eagles (1-1)
Week 3: vs. Los Angeles Chargers (9.5)
The Vikings will have a bit of extra time to prepare for the Chargers, and they're going to need it. Led by Justin Herbert on offense and Joey Bosa on defense, this is a very talented team. However, they've struggled to take the leap from good to great, and after blowing a 27-point lead to the Jaguars in the playoffs, head coach Brandon Staley's seat is heating up heading into this season. The talent level is similar here, but the Vikings have home-field advantage and an edge on the coaching side of things. Eric Kendricks' return to U.S. Bank Stadium will be a fun story.
The pick: Vikings (2-1)
Week 4: at Carolina Panthers (7.5)
It's hard to know what to expect from Carolina, which will be quarterbacked by No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young. Speaking of reunions, the Vikings will get to see old friend Adam Thielen in his new home just four weeks into the season. The Panthers are a team on the rise that should be better this season after ranking 28th in DVOA last year; Young has a chance to be great, while Brian Burns and Jaycee Horn are foundational defensive pieces. Like with all rookie quarterbacks, though, it may take Young a while to find his groove, so you'd rather face him early in the year. Flores is going to send all kinds of pressure his way.
The pick: Vikings (3-1)
Week 5: vs. Kansas City Chiefs (11.5)
The defending champions and their fans will make their way to Minneapolis in Week 5, which should make for a fun Sunday — and a great test for O'Connell's team. The Vikings have never faced Patrick Mahomes, as he was injured when the teams met in 2019 (backup Matt Moore still got the job done at Arrowhead Stadium). Minnesota should be able to put up points in this game, but Andy Reid and Mahomes will be too much for the Vikings' defense — which is still a significant concern until proven otherwise — to handle.
The pick: Chiefs (3-2)
Week 6: at Chicago Bears (7.5)
Chicago might be among the league's most improved teams this year, having added D.J. Moore, Tremaine Edmunds, Darnell Wright, and numerous other pieces to a roster led by third-year quarterback Justin Fields. But after winning just three games last year, the bar is low. Although Fields has shown flashes of brilliance, he's still 5-20 as a starter and needs to prove he can become a consistently great passer to complement his electrifying rushing ability. The Bears' rebuild is still at least a year away, so even though Soldier Field is a tough place to play, I'll take the Vikings in a close one.
The pick: Vikings (4-2)
Week 7: vs. San Francisco 49ers (11.5) on Monday Night Football
This will be another highly-anticipated matchup at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Vikings' first home primetime game of the year comes against a 49ers team that has been to three of the last four NFC championship games. Brock Purdy, who is coming off an elbow injury, should be ready to go for this game. The Niners are loaded on offense and will present major problems for Flores and company. And even with defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans gone, San Francisco is still equally loaded on defense. With that said, if there's one place they're a little suspect, it's in the secondary — which isn't ideal when facing Justin Jefferson and the rest of the Vikings' weapons. Minnesota gets a signature victory in a primetime thriller.
The pick: Vikings (5-2)
Week 8: at Green Bay Packers (7.5)
Aaron Rodgers is gone. He's actually gone. It's anyone's guess as to how Jordan Love will play in 2023, but he's in a good situation with Matt LaFleur as his coach, a stout offensive line in front of him, and weapons like Aaron Jones and Christian Watson at his disposal. Love's play will determine the Packers' success, but a defense that's strong at all three levels will keep Green Bay in a lot of games even if there are some growing pains at quarterback. Lambeau Field will always be a tough place to win.
The pick: Packers (5-3)
Week 9: at Atlanta Falcons (8.5)
The Falcons made a point to add to Arthur Smith's run-heavy offense this offseason, taking Bijan Robinson and tackle Matthew Bergeron with their top two draft picks. Defensively, Calais Campbell and Grady Jarrett will be tough to block up front and the A.J. Terrell-Jeff Okudah cornerback duo has a lot of upside. Like with Green Bay, this will all come down to QB Desmond Ridder's play in his second season. If the Vikings can block Campbell and Jarrett, they shouldn't have much trouble lighting up a defense that was 30th in DVOA last year.
The pick: Vikings (6-3)
Week 10: vs. New Orleans Saints (9.5)
The Saints could be a sneaky team to watch this season, with Derek Carr replacing Jameis Winston at quarterback. New Orleans has big-time weapons in Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave, plus a stout defense that's still led by Cameron Jordan, Demario Davis, and Marshon Lattimore. They'll be out for revenge after losing to the Vikings in London last season. I think Cousins will rise to the occasion, Carr will throw a couple picks, and Jefferson will have another big game against Lattimore.
The pick: Vikings (7-3)
Week 11: at Denver Broncos (8.5) on Sunday Night Football
The Broncos are going to be better in the second year of the Russell Wilson era. By replacing Nathaniel Hackett with Sean Payton as head coach, there's no doubt that they'll improve. But will they be good enough to hang with the Chargers and Chiefs in the AFC West? That'll depend on whether or not Wilson can bounce back in a big way. This should again be a great defense, with Pat Surtain II and Justin Simmons leading the way in the secondary. I'm going to predict the Vikings go 0-2 in road primetime games, but this one will be close.
The pick: Broncos (7-4)
Week 12: vs. Chicago Bears (7.5) on Monday Night Football
Fatigue might start to creep in during the Vikings' 12th straight weekend with a game, but they can leave it all on the field in this primetime matchup with their bye week around the corner. It took a crazy Cameron Dantzler strip of Ihmir Smith-Marsette for the Vikings to beat the Bears at home last year; this one won't be quite as close.
The pick: Vikings (8-4)
Week 13: BYE
Time for some much-needed rest.
Week 14: at Las Vegas Raiders (6.5)
The Raiders are in a weird spot. They have a few stars in Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs, and Maxx Crosby, and they added a competent bridge QB in Jimmy Garoppolo. But the roster as a whole leaves a lot to be desired, and there isn't exactly a ton of young talent that makes you excited about their future. They seem destined for a difficult season in one of the league's toughest divisions. Fans making the trip to see the Vikings' first-ever game in Vegas will leave satisfied, provided they don't lose too much money in the casinos.
The pick: Vikings (9-4)
Week 15: at Cincinnati Bengals (11.5)
The Bengals are hoping that this is their year. Coming off a 23-20 loss in Super Bowl LVI and a 23-20 loss to the Chiefs in last year's AFC title game, this group is once again among the favorites to win it all — and for good reason. Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase are superstars, the other weapons are nice, and the O-line and defense are solid. Cincinnati might be fighting for the AFC's top seed at this point, so it would take a fantastic all-around performance for the Vikings to pull off the road upset.
The pick: Bengals (9-5)
Week 16: vs. Detroit Lions (9.5)
We won't get the first meeting between the two favorites in the NFC North until Christmas Eve, when the Lions arrive at U.S. Bank Stadium. Detroit, which will face the Chiefs in the NFL's regular season opener this year, is getting a ton of hype as a breakout team after winning eight of its final ten games last season. The Lions are a strong all-around squad with good coaching, weapons, and defensive talent. They added two quality starting cornerbacks (Cameron Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley) in free agency, then addressed some needs in the draft by picking Jahmyr Gibbs, Jack Campbell, Sam LaPorta, and Brian Branch.
These two teams have played some thrilling games over the past couple years, and that trend should continue in 2023. The differences in this one will be home-field advantage and the best wide receiver on the planet.
The pick: Vikings (10-5)
Week 17: vs. Green Bay Packers (7.5) on Sunday Night Football
A primetime home game against the Packers on New Year's Eve? This atmosphere is going to be absolutely incredible. The Vikings will be motivated after losing in Green Bay earlier in the year, and they'll take out their frustrations on a team that might be out of the playoff hunt by this point.
The pick: Vikings (11-5)
Week 18: at Detroit Lions (9.5)
Just two weeks after their first matchup with the Lions, the Vikings will head to Ford Field for the regular season finale. Even in my hypothetical world where Minnesota is 11-5 with a win in hand over Detroit, it's possible the Lions could be 10-6 with a chance to win the division on some sort of tiebreaker in this game. With that said, I think they'll be 9-7, meaning the Vikings will have secured the division title with their win over the Packers the week prior. Regardless of what's on the line, it's going to be awfully difficult to sweep this Lions team this season.
The pick: Lions (11-6)
Predicted Vikings record: 11-6, NFC North champions
Overly optimistic? Maybe. This would mean easily going over the Vegas total of 8.5. I just happen to be very bullish on O'Connell's offense in year two; I think the additions of Jordan Addison and Josh Oliver and some improvement from Ed Ingram can make this a top-five attack in the league. And although the defense was awful last season, Flores was a home run hire who will completely transform the style of play on that side of the ball. If some of the Vikings' 2022 defensive draft picks can emerge and complement players like Danielle Hunter, Harrison Smith, and Byron Murphy Jr., this defense could end up somewhere in the middle of the pack — which would be a huge step forward.
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