Why Signing Kyler Murray Likely Means J.J. McCarthy is Done in Minnesota

The Vikings aren't going to make the same mistake they made last offseason when they let Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones walk out the door, forcing them to hand the quarterback keys to J.J. McCarthy.

That's why fans must prepare for a reality in which J.J. McCarthy is as good as gone if the Vikings sign Kyler Murray. The only possible way McCarthy is the QB in 2027 is if he's still on the roster in 2026 and finds a way into the starting role — and plays at a high level — due to a Murray injury.

Beyond that, he's a goner with Murray in purple and gold.

Last week, ESPN's Peter Schrager claimed the Vikings fired general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah because he made the wrong decisions in regard to the quarterback situation last offseason.

"They fired the GM because he had Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones, and an interested Aaron Rodgers in the building, and he said, no, we're good with J.J. (McCarthy), and Max Brosmer and Carson Wentz are gonna be his backups. They're not going to make the same mistake twice," Schrager said.

Murray could be signed for the league minimum of $1.3 million once his release from the Cardinals is official on March 11. If it happens, Murray, who is healthy, is walking into a building where quarterbacks can thrive. He'll be throwing the ball to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, with Kevin O'Connell maximizing his skills as a dual-threat quarterback.

Barring injury, Murray is highly likely to put up impressive numbers and lead the Vikings to the postseason. If he does anything remotely similar to what Sam Darnold did with the Vikings in 2024, the Vikings, out of fear of making the same mistake again, will surely sign Murray to a contract extension rather than taking another plunge into the future with an unknown talent like McCarthy.

While there's talk about Murray resurrecting his career with Minnesota, it's not the same as Darnold going from draft bust to superstar the way he's done in the past two seasons. Darnold flamed out in New York and Carolina before riding the pine in San Francisco for a season, then taking the leap with Minnesota and Seattle.

Murray was the No. 1 overall pick and Rookie of the Year in 2019. He went to the Pro Bowl in 2020 and 2021. He's completed 67.1% of his passes for 20,460 yards with 121 touchdowns and 60 interceptions. He's added 3,193 rushing yards and 32 touchdowns.

Like Darnold, Murray's first seven seasons in the NFL have been partially hindered by poor supporting casts.

As a rookie, Murray was throwing passes to Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk. In 2020, he made the Pro Bowl with DeAndre Hopkins as his top target, complementing 37-year-old Fitzgerald and Kirk. In 2021, he thrived with Hopkins, A.J. Green, Kirk, the late Rondale Moore, and tight end Zach Ertz. His best seasons were 2019 to 2022 under offensive-minded head coach Kliff Kingsbury.

In 2023, he returned from the ACL injury, but his top targets were rookie tight end Trey McBride, Moore, Marquise Brown, and Michael Wilson. In 2024, Murray's top targets were McBride, Wilson, and rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. Last season can be thrown out the window since he played in only five games.

Murray has one major injury: a torn ACL in December 2022. He's more than three years removed from the injury, and the fact that he rushed for 572 yards and five touchdowns in 2024 indicates that he can still be a dangerous dual-threat quarterback.

The bottom line is that Murray should be able to generate big numbers and win with the Vikings. The supporting cast is strong on both sides of the ball, and the offensive-minded head coach will give him every opportunity to succeed. And if he has success, the Vikings, knowing they can't make the same mistake, aren't going to let Murray walk out the door and win the Super Bowl somewhere else like Darnold just did.

McCarthy isn't done. He's 23 and has a chance to be a great player someday, but his injuries and lack of production might mean his window in Minnesota will be closed and nearly locked if Murray is donning the purple and gold.