Vikings' Late-Season Surge Cost Them NFL's Easiest Schedule in 2026

How much did the Vikings' five-game win streak cost them in 2026? In terms of strength of schedule, a lot.

One popular way of figuring out the strength of a team's future schedule is to compile the Vegas win totals of the opponents the Vikings are set to face. Now that the draft and the bulk of free agency have passed, there's no better time to gauge the potential future schedule.

Below is a table of the projected win totals following the draft, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.

Team	Projected Win Total
Arizona Cardinals	4.5
Atlanta Falcons	7.5
Baltimore Ravens	11.5
Buffalo Bills	10.5
Carolina Panthers	7.5
Chicago Bears	9.5
Cincinnati Bengals	9.5
Cleveland Browns	6.5
Dallas Cowboys	9.5
Denver Broncos	9.5
Detroit Lions	10.5
Green Bay Packers	10.5
Houston Texans	9.5
Indianapolis Colts	7.5
Jacksonville Jaguars	9.5
Kansas City Chiefs	10.5
Los Angeles Chargers	10.5
Los Angeles Rams	11.5
Las Vegas Raiders	5.5
Miami Dolphins	4.5
Minnesota Vikings	8.5
New England Patriots	9.5
New Orleans Saints	7.5
New York Giants	7.5
New York Jets	5.5
Philadelphia Eagles	10.5
Pittsburgh Steelers	8.5
Seattle Seahawks	10.5
San Francisco 49ers	10.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	8.5
Tennessee Titans	6.5
Washington Commanders	7.5

Minnesota's five-game win streak, paired with Detroit winning just two of its last five, saw the Vikings jump from fourth to third in the NFC North in the final weeks of the season. That meant Minnesota got a third-place schedule instead of a coveted fourth-place schedule.

In past years, we've seen teams like the Patriots and Bengals capitalize on fourth-place schedules to rebound with big seasons on their way to the Super Bowl.

The Vikings' schedule features home-and-home dates already set with their NFC North rivals, games against the NFC South and AFC East, and matches against the third-place teams in the NFC East, NFC West, and AFC South.

The Lions have the same schedule, except that instead of third-place opponents, they got the fourth-place opponents from the NFC East, NFC West, and AFC South. This means the Vikings will take on the Commanders, Colts, and 49ers this season, while the Lions get the Titans, Giants, and Cardinals. That's a difference of 25 combined wins in 2025 for the Vikings' set of fellow third-place teams, as opposed to 10 combined wins in 2025 for the Lions' fourth-place opponents.

Now, rosters change from year-to-year, so projecting based on last year alone is fairly faulty. There is no easy way to do it, but using the Vegas win totals is as good a way to take into account the offseason changes for each squad. By using the projected win totals as points to be added up, here is the strength of schedule for the NFC North:

Chicago Bears - 150.5
Green Bay Packers - 148.5
Minnesota Vikings 147.5
Detroit Lions - 136.5

While the Bears, Packers, and Vikings are all fairly close, you can see the noticeable impact the Lions' fourth-place schedule has on their strength of schedule. How low is that 136.5 total compared to the rest of the league? According to Sharp Football Analysis, which uses a similar method based on Vegas win totals, it's the easiest in the league.

Here are the five easiest schedules in the league based on combined win totals:

Detroit Lions - 136.5
New Orleans Saints - 139.5
Cincinnati Bengals - 139.5
Cleveland Browns - 141.5
New York Jets - 143.5

Four of the five finished last in their division. While tanking is no fun to watch, the difference between winning and losing that Week 17 game against the Lions is now a matter of the easiest schedule in the league and having a middle-of-the-pack schedule.

Both the Vikings and Lions have rosters that should lend themselves to bounce-back seasons and the ability to compete in a difficult NFC North. The Lions have the upper hand with, on paper, much easier games against the Cardinals, Titans, and Giants.

Add us as a preferred source on Google