2025 Kentucky Derby Potential Race Shape Comes Into Focus
One thing became extremely evident after the 2025 Kentucky Derby Post-Position Draw - there will be intense early jockeying for positioning by several speed horses - from the far inside and middle slots of the main gate.
Pace Dynamics & Race Shape
It is fair to say that Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert was not happy with the draw for both of his entrants. Citizen Bull, the son of Into Mischief, drew the dreaded rail. Owner of the fourth-highest Equibase speed figure (107), Citizen Bull is one of the fastest horses who does his best running when placed on the front end. Jockey Martin Garcia will need to have the 2024 Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner break sharply to avoid being pinned on the rail. As we highlighted in our historical look at the post-positions, it has been 39 years since Ferdinand (1986) crossed the wire first breaking from the rail.
Bob Baffert's thoughts on Citizen Bull and Rodriguez's post positions for the Kentucky Derby! 🎤 pic.twitter.com/lMkogAnVvv
— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) April 27, 2025
Rodriguez, who owns the best Equibase speed figure in the field (111), will be forced to take a similar approach, gunning for the early lead after drawing post No. 4. Breaking clean will be paramount for veteran jockey Mike Smith to avoid getting shuffled back.
Baffert’s two contenders will not be alone in their quest for being on the lead, as they will likely be joined by several other front-running horses, including American Promise (post No. 5) and Admire Daytona (post No. 6). A sleeper who could also vie for the role of early pacesetter is East Avenue (post No. 12), who recently fired a bullet four-furlong work in :47.60.
Morning-Line Favorite Draws Favorably
Journalism, the 3-1 morning-line favorite, drew extremely well, being awarded post No. 8. This middle post has historically proven to be quite advantageous with 20.2% of horses breaking from post No. 8 finishing in-the-money (ITM). Jockey Umberto Rispoli should have the Santa Anita Derby winner positioned well to capitalize on a potential speed duel in a favorable stalking position.
Preferred Running Styles
Potential Leader | Pace Press/Stalkers | Closers |
|---|---|---|
Rodriguez | Journalism | Burnham Square |
Citizen Bull | Coal Battle | Sandman |
Owen Almighty | Chunk of Gold | Tiztastic |
East Avenue | American Promise | Sovereignty |
Admire Daytona | Grande | Final Gambit |
Luxor Cafe | Publisher | |
Neoequos | Flying Mohawk | |
Render Judgment |
Which Closers Won / Lost The Draw?
The potential for a hotly-contested early speed dual among a host of contenders, could set up well for closers if there is a pace meltdown down the stretch.
Closers like Burnham Square (post No, 9) and Tiztastic (post No. 14) could benefit from a quick early pace up front, as their late running styles suit a race where front-runners fade in the 1 ¼ mile distance demanded in the prestigious race.
Arkansas Derby winner Sandman was assigned “unlucky” post No. 17. The son of Tapit will be breaking from a post that has never (0-for-45) produced a Derby winner. Sandman’s potential mid-late traffic issues immensely hurt his chances.
Bill Mott’s Fountain of Youth winner Sovereignty has the tactical speed to overcome post No. 18 if he continues his recent progression. However, history is not on his side as only two Derby champions (2-for-37, 5.4%) have emerged from post No. 18. Country House was only the last horse to win from the post in 2019 after Maximum Security was disqualified for interference.
Final Gambit’s chances to hit the board took a massive hit following his draw of post No. 3. Surrounded by horses who are expected to battle for the early lead, the impressive Jeff Ruby Steaks winner could get shuffled far back and face major traffic issues with his late-running style.
Six Kentucky Derby contenders put in their final breezes this morning ahead of the 151st Run for the Roses 🌹
— Churchill Downs (@ChurchillDowns) April 27, 2025
• East Avenue - five furlongs in 59.40
• Journalism - five furlongs in 1:01.40
• Publisher - four furlongs in 49.00
• Rodriguez - five furlongs in 1:00.00
•… pic.twitter.com/nYSogBFMkX
Final Thoughts
The 2025 Kentucky Derby projects a fast-paced race with speed concentrated from the far inside and middle. Can one of the talented speed horses take the field gate-to-wire?
Or will a potential pace meltdown result in a potential advantage for stalkers like Journalism, Grande, and Luxor Cafe or for one of the top closers like Burnham Square, Tiztastic or Sovereignty? We will find out on May 3.
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2025 Kentucky Derby Top Betting Moonshots Per Futures' Odds
-1be8bb0e9ea1ab9f8bfbf612aa95e4bb.jpeg "Frank Taddeo")
Frank Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Besides contributing NFL fantasy analysis with a Vegas slant, Frank Taddeo primarily performs as On SI’s Senior Fantasy Analyst, providing his significant experience and resources in the sports world.