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The Favorites to Win the 2025 Ballon d'Or—Ranked
The 2025 Ballon d’Or winner will be crowned in September as players made their final claim toward the award at the FIFA Club World Cup.
After Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo each opted for pastures new and veered away from the European elite, plenty of intrigue has surrounded the award. While Messi claimed his eighth and surely final Ballon d’Or as recently as 2023, it’s no longer an honor that’s dominated by two all-time greats.
It’s very much an open field, and the absence of a major international tournament this summer means the 2025 award is set to be handed to the player who dominated the most at club level in 2024–25.
Here’s how Sports Illustrated ranks the 30 2025 Ballon d’Or nominees.
30. Denzel Dumfries
Inter’s auxiliary target-man was weaponised effectively by Simone Inzaghi, and his attacking threat came to the fore in the Nerazzurri’s memorable Champions League semi-final victory over Barcelona.
The marauding Dutch wing-back was a nightmare in the Barça box, scoring twice in the first leg before recording a pair of assists in the return leg.
Dumfries scored seven times in Serie A amid a fine season, but he’s not a serious contender for the Ballon d’Or this year. A nomination is an impressive achievement in its own right.
29. Alexis Mac Allister
The Argentine World Cup winner was an integral part of Liverpool’s midfield last term, even if it took a little while for a distinct role to be carved out for him in Arne Slot’s engine room.
While Mac Allister can struggle physically on occasions, he functions as the adroit voice of reason in the middle of the park.
This is his first Ballon d’Or nomination after previous snubs, but the midfielder is likely to rank rather low in voting given the strength of the competition.
28. Florian Wirtz
After helping Bayer Leverkusen break Bayern Munich’s hegemony over the Bundesliga in 2023–24, Wirtz enjoyed a productive final season in Germany before Liverpool paid a then-British-record fee to bring the astute playmaker to Anfield in the summer.
Wirtz couldn’t quite inspire Leverkusen to back-to-back titles, but he nonetheless finished 2024–25 with 23 Bundesliga goal contributions and six Champions League goals.
He’ll likely drop considerably from his 12th place Ballon d’Or finish in 2024.
27. Bradley Barcola
Bradley Barcola might have lost his place in the PSG starting lineup come the end of the campaign, but the Frenchman still produced a staggering tally of goal contributions in 2024–25. The final number came in at 41, with 21 goals and 20 assists.
PSG’s wealth of attacking options meant Désiré Doué displaced him down the stretch, but Barcola’s early to mid-season form was crucial to his side’s incredible campaign.
He appears certain to feature more prominently in the Ballon d’Or discourse in the years to come—likely alongside some of his PSG teammates.
26. Viktor Gyökeres
Gyökeres scored goals for fun in Portugal, and he’s made the list of nominees by virtue of his moderate success during the league phase of the Champions League.
The striker’s hat-trick against a porous Manchester City side inflated his stock considerably, but the rate of his production was undeniably staggering in Lisbon.
He’s been regarded as the missing piece to Arsenal’s attack, having joined the Gunners in the summer.
25. Declan Rice
Rice endured a sluggish start to 2024–25, but came into his own over the winter and produced some of his best work down the stretch.
The powerful English midfielder was perhaps most dominant during Arsenal’s run to the Champions League semifinals, when he eventually came a cropper to PSG’s divine trio.
Rice was particularly brilliant in the Gunners’ quarterfinal triumph over Real Madrid. Those two free-kicks will live long in the memory, overshadowing his excellent performance in the returng leg at the Bernabéu.
24. Vinícius Júnior
Vinícius Júnior was not quite at his peak in 2024–25 as those around him faltered. Real Madrid underwhelmed in Carlo Ancelotti’s final season at the helm, finishing with only the UEFA Super Cup and FIFA Intercontinental Cup to their name.
Vinícius was still one of their better performers, however, managing 22 goals and 16 assists in all competitions for Los Blancos. The Brazilian’s devastating speed and insane agility made him an often unstoppable attacking threat.
After his 2024 Ballon d’Or snub, the winger can have few complaints about missing out on the prize this year.
23. Ryan Gravenberch
Ryan Gravenberch was a man possessed in 2024–25. The Dutchman frustrated in his debut season with the Reds, but Arne Slot’s arrival marked a shift in performances and, most notably, his position.
The ex-Bayern Munich star was moved into defensive midfield by Slot and quickly blossomed, establishing himself as the answer to Liverpool’s No.6 conundrum.
Gravenberch was essential to Liverpool’s Premier League title-winning campaign and was rightly named the competition’s Young Player of the Season.
22. Virgil van Dijk
Virgil van Dijk finished runner-up in the 2019 Ballon d’Or vote, and while he won’t finish that high in 2025, he’s earned a nomination off the back of Liverpool’s Premier League title triumph.
Mohamed Salah stole the show, but Liverpool’s domestic success was built on the solid foundations laid in place by the gigantic Dutchman, who’s still going strong despite his age.
Van Dijk always oozes class and has often held Liverpool’s defense together single-handedly. He rarely drifts far from the Ballon d’Or conversation, and some would argue that he should’ve pipped Messi to the post six years ago.
21. Robert Lewandowski
Barcelona will need to replace veteran Robert Lewandowski soon, but not quite yet. The Poland international is still posting frightening numbers for La Blaugrana, as evidenced by his 2024–25 haul en route to a domestic treble.
Lewandowski netted 42 times in 52 appearances for the Catalan giants in all competitions as he continued to terrorize defenses across Spain’s top flight and Europe. While the wingers either side of him took many of the plaudits on offer, the center forward’s importance cannot be dismissed.
Lewandowski’s shot at the Ballon d’Or was robbed from him in 2020 and he won’t be winning this year, but the striker could sneak into the top 20.
20. Michael Olise
An unassuming introductory press conference left many Bayern Munich supporters sceptical as to whether their new winger from Crystal Palace would be able to cut it with the big boys.
Olise quickly went about dashing any doubts, however. The self-assured Frenchman took to life in Munich like a fish to water, as he beat out stellar competition to earn a starting spot down Vincent Kompany’s right flank.
Olise ended his first Bundesliga season with 27 goal contributions, helping Die Roten claim the league title. His majesty was on full display again at the Club World Cup, but Bayern exited the competition in the quarterfinals.
He has all the makings of a future Ballon d’Or contender.
19. Cole Palmer
The English playmaker was nowhere near as productive in 2024–25 compared to his first season at Chelsea, when he was handed the keys to west London by Mauricio Pochettino.
Palmer endured several lengthy droughts, including the absence of a single Premier League goal from late January until the end of the season. However, the Chelsea star’s performance on the big stage to wrap up the campaign has done his stock the world of good.
Palmer helped the Blues turn the tide in their Conference League final victory over Real Betis, and he was named the Club World Cup’s Player of the Tournament after a superb two-goal showing in the final.
18. Lautaro Martínez
Inter, like Real Madrid, failed to secure any major silverware last season. They were runners-up in both Serie A and the Champions League, beaten to top spot by Napoli in the former and dismantled by Paris Saint-Germain in the final of the latter.
Still, Martínez can’t be blamed for Inter’s failure to bolster their trophy cabinet, conjuring up magic frequently in black and blue. He scored 24 times for the Italian giants, including crucial goals en route to the Champions League final. He wasn’t even half-fit for the second leg of the semifinal against Inter, yet the striker still found himself on the scoresheet.
Martínez will not be this year’s Ballon d’Or winner, but he’s set to record another top 20 finish.
17. Scott McTominay
Antonio Conte guided Napoli to the Serie A title in his first season in the dugout courtesy of a sizeable helping hand from Scott McTominay, who also debuted with the Italian side in 2024–25.
Having fallen down the pecking order at Manchester United, the Scotland international ventured to Naples and swiftly became a cult hero, finishing the term with 12 goals and four assists in Serie A as Napoli clinched the crown.
McTominay’s performances were so impressive that he was named Serie A’s Player of the Season.
16. João Neves
Integral to PSG’s success in 2024–25 was João Neves, the most underappreciated member of Luis Enrique’s midfield trio. The diminutive youngster was exceptional from the outset, managing 17 goal contributions alongside some impressive defensive performances.
Neves’s impact cannot be underestimated despite the Portugal international failing to steal headlines in the same manner as his attacking clubmates. An incredibly exciting debut season in Paris has underscored his immense potential.
15. Serhou Guirassy
Guirassy continued from where he left off at Stuttgart with Borussia Dortmund, as he scored 21 Bundesliga goals during his debut campaign at Signal Iduna Park.
The wily 29-year-old is one of the most underrated strikers in Europe, with Guirassy proving his credentials on the big stage last term. He co-led the Champions League scoring charts with Raphinha, netting 13 times in 14 games.
Guirassy’s stellar run in Europe may see him rank higher than some expect in Ballon d’Or voting.
14. Fabián Ruiz
The second prong listed from PSG’s outstanding three-man midfield is Fabián Ruiz. After an impressive Euro 2024 campaign with Spain, the 29-year-old continued his brilliant form at club level with the Ligue 1 champions and was pivotal to Enrique’s fluid possession game.
Ruiz popped up with some vital goals in the latter stages of the Champions League and FIFA Club World Cup, including a brace in the 4–0 demolition of Real Madrid in the semifinal of the latter in the United States.
The PSG maestro sees things others don’t and offers a level of control in the engine room that few can match.
13. Gianluigi Donnarumma
There may well have been a few questions over Donnarumma’s status in the French capital entering 2024–25, and the Italian committed a few notable errors during the first half of the season.
However, PSG’s number one then embarked on a legacy-defining run of form to help his team reach the Champions League final, producing staggering saves in each of the victories over Liverpool, Aston Villa and Arsenal. He barely had to work for his clean sheet in the showpiece event.
Donnarumma has his flaws (hence why Luis Enrique was willing to let him go in the summer), but he may well be the best shot-stopper in the world. The Italian won’t become the first goalkeeper to win the Ballon d’Or since Lev Yashin in 1963, though.
12. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Kvaratskhelia proved to be the final piece in Luciano Spalletti’s jigsaw in Naples, and the Georgian, after joining PSG in the winter, proved to be the superstar wide man who supplied Luis Enrique’s burgeoning outfit with an added spark.
There were multiple factors in PSG’s rise from the brink of league phase Champions League elimination to dominant European champions, and Kvaratskhelia’s arrival was undeniably one of the most significant.
The former Napoli superstar is a manager’s dream. He complements an inevitability in the final third with an unrelenting desire to function for the sake of the collective. Kvaratskhelia’s a winger you can’t help but fall in love with.
11. Nuno Mendes
Full-backs are rarely recognised in Ballon d’Or voting, but the campaign Mendes put together will be hard to ignore.
The Portuguese international has always been blessed with bags of talent, but the 2024–25 season felt like Mendes’ first when it all came together. The left-back is not only a mightily dynamic operator when he opts to burst forward, but he’s proven himself to be an excellent one-on-one defender, too.
Mendes tamed the likes of Mohamed Salah and Bukayo Saka amid PSG’s journey to Champions League glory, but he perhaps saved his best work for the UEFA Nations League final against Spain, when Lamine Yamal, for seemingly the first time in 2025, was completely nullified down the right flank.
10. Désiré Doué
Doué’s increased prominence was another factor in PSG’s meteoric rise in 2025, with the teenager’s arrival from Rennes epitomising the French club’s shift in transfer policy.
PSG put the Galactico era behind them and ushered in the young and hungry. Doué had plenty of suitors last summer, but signing for Ligue 1’s dominant force was a no-brainer.
The incredibly skillful winger worked his way into Luis Enrique’s strongest XI as his first season with the club progressed, eventually developing into a mainstay within the manager’s fluid front three. Doué has the capacity to make something out of nothing, and he saved his best work for the biggest stage in Munich.
Doué dazzled in the Champions League final as PSG wiped the floor with Inter. That performance alone was probably worthy of a top ten finish, but he followed that up with an impressive Club World Cup without dominating the stats sheet. Doué was named Young Player of the Tournament.
9. Harry Kane
England and Tottenham Hotspur’s all-time record goalscorer has long been slandered for his inability to pick up silverware, and many were convinced that Kane was cursed when his first season with Bayern failed to garner his first major trophy.
Kane, however, didn’t have to wait too much longer in Germany to finally break his duck, and the striker’s goals once again played a huge role in Bayern’s Bundesliga success.
The do-it-all forward topped the league’s scoring charts for the second season running, with his 41 goals in all competitions complemented by 14 assists. He remains an elite goalscorer and playmaker.
8. Pedri
Much of Pedri’s senior career has been blighted by injuries, but 2024–25 was a near-perfect season for the midfielder on the fitness front.
The Spaniard performed an all-encompassing role in Hansi Flick’s double pivot, expected to supply control in possession and work doggedly in a bid to win the ball back. This was the best season of Pedri’s stop-start career, and a reminder of just how good the Barcelona star is.
He operated as the conductor of a Barça side that claimed three domestic titles and fell agonisingly short of the Champions League final.
7. Achraf Hakimi
Hakimi is not your ordinary full-back. The Moroccan international spent much of his career before PSG functioning as a wing-back, and he operates as an auxiliary winger for Enrique’s side.
Fleet of foot with a majestic burst of pace, Hakimi is unstoppable in full cry. Enrique has encouraged the right-back to not only dominate down the touchline but to impact proceedings infield, and we saw Hakimi score a crucial goal in PSG’s Champions League semifinal triumph over Arsenal from a central position on the edge of the box.
No full-back in world football carries Hakimi’s threat when he’s surging upfield, and he’s benefited mightily from the synergy and telepathy with which this PSG team play.
Right-backs should not be ending seasons with 27 goal contributions, no matter how many games they play.
6. Kylian Mbappé
Mbappé’s wait for a first Ballon d’Or is set to continue.
After lighting up the 2018 World Cup as a teenager, the Frenchman seemed a sure bet to blossom into a multi-time winner of the illustrious individual award, and Mbappé may yet get his hands on the prize.
Many suspected the forward had boosted his chances by signing for Real Madrid, given their success in the Champions League, but 2024–25 was a poor season by their lofty standards.
Carlo Ancelotti struggled for the requisite balance, and although Mbappé ended the season with the Pichichi Trophy, Madrid simply weren’t successful enough as a collective for the French superstar to be regarded as anything more than a Ballon d’Or outsider.
5. Mohamed Salah
The Liverpool hero looked on course for an all-timer of a Premier League campaign, but a relatively slow conclusion to the season took just a hint of gloss off of Salah’s brilliance.
The Egyptian somehow failed to break the single-season assist record, but he did end the Premier League campaign with the most goal contributions ever (47) and another Golden Boot. He was hugely responsible for Liverpool’s title success, and his season will be remembered as one of the finest we’ve seen on English shores
However, it does feel like Salah’s Ballon d’Or charge lost momentum down the stretch. He needed to dazzle in Europe to get his hands on this prize.
4. Raphinha
Doubts over Raphinha’s future prevailed in Catalonia at the end of Xavi’s reign, but new manager Hansi Flick made it clear that he wanted the Brazilian to be part of his plans.
The German had a plan for Raphinha, who’d so far flattered to deceive after securing his dream move in 2022. The former Leeds United star most certainly vindicated the manager’s faith, however.
Instead of hugging the touchline down the right, Raphinha was asked to perform a more direct role off the shoulder of Robert Lewandowski. He primarily functioned as an in behind runner, and his output was staggering.
Raphinha ended 2024–25 with 34 goals and 25 assists in 57 games. The Brazilian came to the fore when it mattered most for the Blaugrana.
3. Vitinha
His midfield teammates didn’t quite make the top ten, but Vitinha finishes with a lofty standing in our Ballon d’Or ranking. The Portuguese midfielder produced a campaign of football well worthy of a podium finish.
Vitinha functions as the beating heart of the best team in world football, contrary to the Club World Cup final result. The slight operator is the conductor of Enrique’s PSG, with the Spaniard asking Vitinha to drop into defense to help build play but also drive the team forward with swift combinations and dazzling dribbles.
He’s incredibly smart and has been nothing short of a joy to watch over the past 12 months.
2. Lamine Yamal
Raphinha may well have been the numbers guy in Barcelona’s attack, but had you tuned into Flick’s side for even a brief period, it wouldn’t have taken long to gauge who their best player was.
Teenager Yamal is nothing short of a freak of nature. He couldn’t match Raphinha statistically, but there was no one else in the world who was performing as masterfully as the Spaniard week in, week out.
Yamal boasts the sort of gravitational pull that only the greats possess when the ball’s at his feet, and there were performances from the now-18-year-old in crunch time that made you wonder whether this was the most talented teenager this sport’s seen since Pelé was helping Brazil to glory at the 1958 World Cup.
Yamal’s probably the best player in the world, but he’s set to be pipped to the 2025 Ballon d’Or.
1. Ousmané Dembélé
Dembélé has long been earmarked as a talent with Ballon d’Or potential, but injuries and infuriating inconsistency have persistently prevented the Frenchman from coming close previously.
However, 2024–25 was the season everything came together for the mightily gifted forward, who functioned as a marauding false nine in PSG’s supreme attack. His shift to a central position was the making of Enrique’s all-conquering outfit, and he scored his 35th goal of the season during the latter stages of the Club World Cup.
The Champions League was always going to play a crucial role in deciding who would win this year’s award, and Dembélé scored eight times and added six assists for the eventual champions.
Given the role he played in PSG’s transformation, Dembélé is rightfully considered the favorite.
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James Cormack is a Sports Illustrated Soccer freelance writer with an avid interest in tactical and player analysis. As well as supporting Spurs religiously, he follows Italian and German football, taking particular interest in the work of Antonio Conte & Julian Nagelsmann.