Why Concacaf’s 2030 World Cup Pathway Could Help USMNT Avoid Another Miss

Concacaf unveiled the process before the completion of 2026 World Cup qualifiers.

The USMNT learned the pathway to the 2030 World Cup on Friday. | IMAGO/ULMER Pressebildagentur

Concacaf, the governing body for North and Central American and Caribbean soccer, unveiled the process for the 2030 World Cup qualifying on Friday, including the pathway for the 2026 host nations, the United States, Canada and Mexico. 

The 2030 cycle will be the first time Concacaf participates in a complete qualifying tournament with no nations earning automatic entries. The region will have six automatic spots and the potential of a seventh through the FIFA intercontinental playoff. 

Concacaf’s announcement pre-empted FIFA’s confirmation of both the number of teams in the tournament and the allocations for each of its six confederations worldwide. 

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When are Concacaf 2030 World Cup Qualifiers?

The 2030 World Cup qualifiers will be brand new for Concacaf. | Mandel NGAN/Pool/Getty Images

The Concacaf qualifiers will start in September 2027 with teams ranked 14th through 35th playing a two-legged, home-and-away series to complete the first round. 

The 11 winners then advance to the second round alongside the top-13 nations, making a 24-team setup that will be split into six four-team groups. Each country will play home and away for a total of six matches in that phase between October 2027 and March 2028. 

The top two teams from each will advance to a 12-team final round played in June 2028 and October 2029. That stage will feature three groups of four teams each, with each team playing home and away for a total of six matches, completed with World Cup qualification for the top two teams in each group. 

The top two third-place teams in the final round would play an additional two-legged tie in November 2019, with the winner advancing to the intercontinental playoffs. 

In total, a team could play a maximum of 18 games in qualifying, with the fewest being 12. 

For the 2026 tournament, at least six Concacaf teams will compete, with the potential for a seventh if Jamaica qualifies through the intercontinental playoff. None of the host nations had to participate in qualifying. 

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What it Means for USMNT, Mexico, Canada 

The USMNT have high hopes for 2026 and even higher for 2030. | Robin Alam/ISI Photos/ISI Photos/Getty Images

For the top three-ranked Concacaf teams at the moment, the new World Cup qualifying pathway likely ensures missing future tournaments is unlikely, as the groups are likely to be seeded from the second phase of qualifying.  

From a USMNT perspective, it allows competitive games with only relative pressure and a lower chance of missing out dramatically, as they did in the 2018 tournament in Russia. Meanwhile, Canada shouldn’t be too concerned about missing World Cups, with 2022 marking their first qualification since 1986 and just their second ever. 

In addition to announcing the qualifying pathway, Concacaf also revealed that the 2027 Concacaf Nations League finals would take place at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, which most recently hosted the tournament’s showcase games in 2025.

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