2022-23 NBA MVP Odds and Betting Primer
The last two NBA MVPs have both gone back-to-back.
Nikola Jokić hoisted the trophy in 2021 and again in 2022 and before him Giannis Antetokounmpo won it in 2019 and 2020.
No player has won three MVPs in a row since Larry Bird in the mid 1980s, and voter fatigue alone could prevent the Nuggets’ big man from a three-peat, especially in a crowded pool of contenders. 76ers center Joel Embiid finished runner up-to Jokić the last two years and has some of the best odds to finally break through and capture the trophy.
Ahead of Embiid, Antetokounmpo, Jokić and Stephen Curry, though, is Mavericks’ star Luka Dončić, who stands alone as the SI Sportsbook MVP favorite for the second year running.
Dallas is coming off a Western Conference Finals run and Dončić earned his third All-NBA First Team nod in just four years in the league. Still, should you bet on such a heavy favorite to win MVP? Or is there better value elsewhere?
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2022-23 NBA MVP Odds
Luka Dončić +450
Joel Embiid +550
Giannis Antetokounmpo +600
Kevin Durant +850
Nikola Jokić +850
Jayson Tatum +1100
Ja Morant +1200
Stephen Curry +1300
Zion Williamson +2200
Kawhi Leonard +2200
LeBron James +2200
Anthony Davis +3300
Trae Young +3500
Devin Booker +3500
The Favorite: Luka Dončić, Mavericks (+400)
Dončić is the orchestrator of the Dallas offense and he called his own number more often last season than any other in his young, decorated career. His 37.39% usage rate was the eighth-highest on record and he led the league by that metric for the second straight season. The seven players who recorded a higher usage rate either won the scoring title or MVP—or both. Dončić won neither in 2021-22. He finished fifth in the league in scoring (28.4), fifth in assists (9.1) and fifth in MVP voting. There’s reason to believe Dončić’s numbers will see an uptick from these already ridiculous averages the coming year, and MVP honors could follow.
Jalen Brunson, Dončić’s old backcourt running mate, signed with the Knicks in free agency. Though Brunson didn’t necessarily infringe on Dončić’s usage, his departure allows that rate to potentially approach rare air—north of 40%, something only done twice in league history. Brunson attempted the second-most field goals and had the second-most assists on the Mavericks only behind Dončić. It’s evident coach Jason Kidd has no issue funneling the offense through his star and that might be the case to an even greater degree with Brunson gone.
Dallas is built for Dončić to allow him to cook and this could be the first season he cracks a 30 PPG average, factoring in his improved three-point shooting. The three-and-D lineup assembled around him is perfectly built to hide his weaknesses on defense and create space for him to make magic happen on the other end of the floor. The offseason addition of Christian Wood as a pick and roll partner for Dončić only aids his already easy-to-make MVP case.
Value Bet: Jayson Tatum, Celtics (+1100)
Jayson Tatum proved he belonged in the conversation of the NBA’s best players last season. He made All-NBA First Team while averaging career highs in points (26.9), rebounds (8.0) and assists (4.4). His improved defense helped fuel Boston‘s miraculous second-half turnaround and ultimately Finals trip.
Tatum has to be at his best for the Celtics to even come close to what they accomplished in 2022, and his leadership will be equally important for a team that will be without the coach who guided it on that playoff run. Boston has older players than Tatum (Al Horford) and more vocal ones (Marcus Smart) but Tatum is the franchise player. Expectations are still high in Boston, which has the highest win total projection in the NBA, and it will be easy for this team to fall short of that with Ime Udoka suspended for the season. Entering his sixth NBA season at age 24, Tatum has been around the block. He can be the difference between another Celtics 50-plus-win campaign and a fall from the conference’s top tier.
There’s somewhat of a narrative angle involved in a potential Tatum MVP year, but it’ll also take a statistical leap. He’s increased his scoring average by at least three points per game every year of his career. That’s difficult now that he’s averaging in the high 20s, but another three on top of his career-best mark would put him just less than 30 PPG—MVP range. Tatum finished sixth last season and there’s a steep drop from Jokić to him in the odds, which makes him an intriguing value.
Long Shot: Anthony Davis, Lakers (+3300)
This would require that everything falls right for Anthony Davis. That would mean regaining his pre-2020-21 shooting touch, returning to the defensive menace he was with the Pelicans and his first year with the Lakers and, above all else, playing 70-plus games for the third time in his career. One of those things feels reasonable. Two? It could happen. But all three would be a magnificent stroke of luck given that he’s played just 76 games across the last two seasons, while his outside shooting percentages have plummeted. To that I say: It’s a long shot for a reason!
Davis’s averages during his down year were still respectable—23.2 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 2.3 BPG— but it’s been several years since his peak, the 2017-18 season when he finished third in MVP voting. He was a walking double-double that year and he can regain that form if certain things fall right for him.
There’s the matter of Davis not wanting to play center, but the Lakers don’t have a ton of options. If Damian Jones and Thomas Bryant can eat enough minutes at center next to Davis in the frontcourt and appease the star, he can get what he wants and, ideally, at least partially take over the reins from LeBron James, who’s entering his 20th season. Health is always the biggest factor here, and a healthy Davis could be primed for a big year.
Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
BET: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks (+600)
No player in basketball impacts winning on both ends of the floor like Antetokounmpo. He’s top five in Defensive Player of the Year and MVP odds—and has won both already—because of his demonstrated ability to anchor the Bucks on both sides of the ball. Two years removed from last winning the award, I think Antetokounmpo reminds everyone that he took the title of best player in the world two summers ago when he willed Milwaukee to a title.
The Bucks’ success has dipped a bit compared to its regular-season dominance a few years ago, so pulling away from the pack in the standings would certainly help Antetokounmpo’s case. Starting the season without Khris Middleton puts more pressure on Antetokounmpo to perform and he’s always been up to the challenge. Coming off the best offensive season of his career, we could witness the best overall campaign by the Greek Freak to date.
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