AFC Playoff Teams Betting Profiles
Now that the NFL playoff field is set, there’s no more convoluted scenarios to consider. Win four games in a row (three if you’re the Chiefs or Eagles) and Super Bowl LVII is yours.
Before you place your futures bets for conference champions and Super Bowl victor or fill out your postseason bracket, let’s get to know each team competing for the Lombardi Trophy. In the AFC, it’s the Chiefs, Bills, Bengals, Jaguars, Chargers, Ravens and Dolphins. And representing the NFC are the Eagles, 49ers, Vikings, Buccaneers, Cowboys, Giants and Seahawks.
Below are betting profiles for the seven AFC teams, complete with records, key betting information, offensive and defensive averages, first-round opponents, futures odds and more.
MORE: NFC Playoff Teams Betting Profiles
Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
1. Kansas City Chiefs
Record: 14–3
Against The Spread Record: 6–10–1
Over/Under Record: 8–9
Points Per Game (Rank): 29.1 (1)
Points Allowed Per Game (Rank): 21.7 (16)
Wild-Card Opponent: BYE
Odds to Win AFC: +150 (First)
Odds to Win Super Bowl: +350 (First)
The Chiefs went on a five-game winning streak to end the year and clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC, surviving some close calls against inferior teams—34-28 and 27-24 wins against the Broncos and a 30-25 overtime victory versus the Texans. Kansas City exhibited vulnerabilities on defense late in the season but MVP-favorite quarterback Patrick Mahomes delivered consistently for the league’s highest-scoring team. The Chiefs finished strong, thrashing the Raiders, 31-13, in Week 18 to complete the sweep of the AFC West.
Kansas City enters the postseason with the second-worst against the spread (ATS) record of any playoff team and two of its losses came against Buffalo (24-20 at home) and Cincinnati (27-24 on the road), its biggest conference competitors. The Chiefs, who have hosted the last four AFC championships, would play the Bills at a neutral site if both teams make it that far.
2. Buffalo Bills
Record: 13–3
Against The Spread Record: 8–7–1
Over/Under Record: 6–10
Points Per Game (Rank): 28.4 (2)
Points Allowed Per Game (Rank): 17.9 (2)
Wild-Card Opponent: Dolphins (-10.5)
Odds to Win AFC: +200 (Second)
Odds to Win Super Bowl: +400 (Second)
The last time Buffalo lost was Week 10 and its three losses this year came by a combined eight points. As such, the Bills have the best point differential (+169) in the NFL. Their offensive bona fides are apparent with Josh Allen under center, Stefon Diggs out wide and a strong rushing attack led by Devin Singletary. Buffalo scored 32 or more points in each of its final three games and earned the advantage of hosting in Orchard Park, where it was 7–1 this season. It enters the playoffs on a seven-game win streak with a 4–3 ATS mark over that stretch.
The Bills have a top defense, though two of their best players, defensive end Von Miller and safety Micah Hyde, are on injured reserve and their secondary is down safety Damar Hamlin. Buffalo passed its toughest test when it beat Kansas City on the road Week 6 and it ensured it won’t have to return to Missouri if there is a rematch. The Bills did lose to the Dolphins, their wild-card opponent, 21-19 earlier this season, but they avenged that loss in Week 15 with a 32-29 victory. There’s also the matter of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, whose status is up in the air.
3. Cincinnati Bengals
Record: 12–4
Against The Spread Record: 12–4
Over/Under Record: 6–9–1
Points Per Game (Rank): 26.1 (7)
Points Allowed Per Game (Rank): 20.1 (6)
Wild-Card Opponent: Ravens (-6.5)
Odds to Win AFC: +400 (Third)
Odds to Win Super Bowl: +750 (Fifth)
The defending AFC champion Bengals are no underdog entering the postseason this time around. Winners of eight straight, they hold the longest active winning streak in the conference and are 10–1 in their last 11 following a 2–3 start to the season. Cincinnati has a trio of talented receivers in Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd who have a pass-happy quarterback in Joe Burrow tasked with getting them the ball. Burrow was sacked less often than last year, but he still took the sixth-most sacks in the league. Meanwhile, the Bengals’ run game finished bottom five in yards per carry.
Cincinnati covered in all but one of its games during its current winning streak with the Week 18 game against Baltimore the lone outlier. Those two teams will meet again at Paycor Stadium one week after the regular-season finale, which the Bengals won, 27-16, though the Ravens will more closely resemble the team that beat them, 19-17, in Week 3 if quarterback Lamar Jackson is indeed back.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
Record: 9–8
Against The Spread Record: 8–9
Over/Under Record: 8–9
Points Per Game (Rank): 23.8 (10)
Points Allowed Per Game (Rank): 20.6 (12)
Wild Card Opponent: Chargers (+1.5)
Odds to win AFC: +2000 (Sixth)
Odds to win Super Bowl: +4000 (11th)
After falling to 4–8 following an ugly blowout loss, the Jaguars authored a most improbable comeback from the No. 1 pick (in back-to-back years, no less) to AFC South winners. It was a rollercoaster season to be sure, but coach Doug Pederson and quarterback Trevor Lawrence brought Jacksonville back to the playoffs by beating the Titans at home in the season finale for their fifth straight win. It wasn’t Lawrence’s best game, and the offense managed a grand total of 19 rushing yards, but the defense delivered the game-winning score, just as it did a few weeks prior to beat the Cowboys in overtime.
The secondary, which allows the fifth-most passing yards in the NFL, can certainly be exploited, which might be an issue against Los Angeles, its wild-card opponent. The Jaguars are getting points at home against the Chargers, an opponent they beat back in September, 38-10. Being the underdog was profitable in the regular season for Jacksonville, which went 7–5 ATS in that position with seven wins straight-up (SU), one of which was against the Chargers.
5. Los Angeles Chargers
Record: 10-7
Against The Spread Record: 11–5–1
Over/Under Record: 6–10–1
Points Per Game (Rank): 23.0 (13)
Points Allowed Per Game (Rank): 22.6 (22)
Wild-Card Opponent: Jaguars (-1.5)
Odds to Win AFC: +1000 (Fourth)
Odds to Win Super Bowl: +2200 (Seventh)
One year removed from falling just short of the playoffs, the Chargers are headed to the postseason for the first time in quarterback Justin Herbert’s career. Despite a barely positive point differential, Los Angeles finished with a stellar ATS record and went 4–0–1 across its final five games. Injuries to stars on offense (tackle Rashawn Slate, receiver Keenan Allen) and defense (cornerback J.C. Jackson) capped the regular-season potential of this team but Allen is back to form and Mike Williams (back) is expected to be active against the Jaguars after exiting early in Week 18.
The Chargers have playmakers at every level of the defense in Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack and Derwin James, though they still allow the second-most points per game among the AFC playoff teams. L.A.’s worst showing of the season was at home at the hands of its first-round foe, Jacksonville, though that game was played just one week after Herbert injured his ribs in a tight loss to the Chiefs. The Chargers head to Florida with a 7–2 ATS mark on the road, the second-best in the NFL.
6. Baltimore Ravens
Record: 10–7
Against The Spread Record: 7–9–1
Over/Under Record: 5–12
Points Per Game (Rank): 20.6 (19)
Points Allowed Per Game (Rank): 18.5 (3)
Wild-Card Opponent: Bengals (+6.5)
Odds to Win AFC: +1600 (Fifth)
Odds to Win Super Bowl: +3300 (10th)
The Ravens are perhaps the biggest wild card. The status of Jackson (knee), who last played Week 13, is unclear. He was expected to return Christmas Eve, which came and went with the former MVP still sidelined. Baltimore was 8–4 with Jackson and 2–3 without him as Tyler Huntley and Anthony Brown took over. The Ravens sputtered to the finish line without him, dropping three of their final four games, failing to score more than 17 points in any of their final six games and spoiling the efforts of a stout defense. After acquiring linebacker Roquan Smith midseason, Baltimore allowed 20 or more points just twice.
Even with Jackson healthy, the Ravens weren’t beating teams through the air, though he does unlock tight end Mark Andrews, the best receiving threat on the team. This is a run-first offense and Jackson is the skeleton key that makes it function, like in Week 5 when they beat the Bengals on a Justin Tucker field goal. Baltimore is 3–1–1 ATS as an underdog with two wins SU. The current wild-card spread will be the second-most points the Ravens get all season.
7. Miami Dolphins
Record: 9–8
Against The Spread Record: 9–8
Over/Under Record: 8–9
Points Per Game (Rank): 23.4 (11)
Points Allowed Per Game (Rank): 23.5 (24)
Wild Card Opponent: Bills (+10.5)
Odds to Win AFC: +2500 (Seventh)
Odds to Win Super Bowl: +6000 (Tied-13th)
The Dolphins are another team who enters the playoff with a question mark at quarterback. Rookie Skylar Thompson beat the Jets in Week 18 to punch Miami’s ticket, but he was the third option beyond Tagovailoa, who’s in concussion protocol for the second time this season and hasn’t played in two weeks, and Teddy Bridgewater, who had an injured finger on his throwing hand. The Dolphins avoided an all-time collapse by getting past New York in the finale, but before that they had lost five in a row, four of which were one-score games. Still, they did manage to cover the spread in three of their final four games.
There’s talent and speed all over this offense, which was humming with Tagovailoa under center as wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle accounted for more than 3,000 combined receiving yards. The offense faltered without Tagovailoa, and the defense—which allows the most points per game of all the AFC playoff teams—did not make matters easier. Both games between the Bills and Dolphins this year were tight and so much of this matchup will come down to whether Tagovailoa is cleared to play.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call the National Council for Problem Gambling 1-800-522-4700.
