NL MVP Odds: Ronald Acuña Jr. Is the Favorite to Repeat
Ronald Acuña Jr. is the favorite to repeat as National League MVP in 2024.
Acuña was the unanimous 2023 NL MVP after putting together a dazzling season for the Atlanta Braves, becoming the first player to hit 40-plus homers and tally 70-plus steals in a single season. He led all of MLB in runs scored (149), OBP (.416) and stolen bases while also swatting 41 homers and logging triple-digit RBIs (106). Acuña also led the league with 310 batted balls at 95-plus miles per hour in 2023. The next closest was Rafael Devers, who had 252. Acuna was in the top five in the league in terms of average exit velocity (94.7), average home run distance (420) and hard-hit percentage (5.3%). At just 26 years old, there’s no reason to expect the skills to decline. Even with some regression, Acuna is an elite player in one of the best lineups in baseball. It is important to note that there are reports that Acuna is dealing with a knee injury.
The next best odds belong to Mookie Betts, who put together an impressive 2023 season, hitting a career-high 39 home runs for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Betts will continue to hit leadoff for one of the top lineups in the MLB, which now includes Shohei Ohtani.
Brett Davis/USA TODAY Sports
And speaking of Shohei Ohtani … the Dodgers’ free-agent acquisition has the third-best odds at +750, which represents much better value than we have gotten for the two-way star in recent seasons. Ohtani will not pitch this season following arm surgery but he is expected to be ready for opening day as the team’s DH. As a hitter, Ohtani’s max home run distance in 2023 led all of MLB (493 feet), while his max exit velocity ranked fourth and his average exit velocity ranked third. Ohtani hit 44 home runs last season on his way to his second AL MVP. In his first season as solely a hitter in a menacing Dodgers lineup, Ohtani certainly could take home his third MVP.
The San Diego Padres’ Fernando Tatis Jr. (+1000) remained primarily healthy for the 2024 season and has the tools to put together an MVP campaign. Bryce Harper (+1000) remains an elite hitting talent and the Philadelphia Phillies are expected to be competitive.
The Dodgers’ Freddie Freeman (+1200) and Atlanta’s Matt Olson (+1400) represent good value. Olson led the league in RBIs last season. Should Acuna miss any time with his knee, Olson could get a bump. Freeman won the MVP in 2020 with the Braves, and he continues to mash with Los Angeles. For value, I prefer Freeman to Betts.
Other values to consider: Trea Turner (+2200), Pete Alonso (+3000) and Kyle Schwarber (+10000)
NL MVP Odds
Ronald Acuña Jr. +500
Mookie Betts +650
Shohei Ohtani +750
Fernando Tatis Jr. +1000
Bryce Harper +1000
Freddie Freeman +1200
Matt Olson +1400
Corbin Carroll +1800
Manny Machado +2200
Trea Turner +2200
Austin Riley +2500
Francisco Lindor +2800
Pete Alonso +3000
Elly De La Cruz +4000
Nolan Arenado +4000
William Contreras +4000
Michael Harris +4000
Paul Goldschmidt +4000
Xander Bogaerts +5000
Willy Adames +5000
Ketel Marte +5000
Ozzie Albies +5000
Luis Arraez +6000
Will Smith +6000
Dansby Swanson +7000
Nico Hoerner +8000
Christian Yelich +8000
Willson Contreras +8000
Seiya Suzuki +8000
Sean Murphy +8000
Oneil Cruz +10000
Kyle Schwarber +10000
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