This might seem low for a receiver who had 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns last year and will turn 23 about two weeks before the season begins. But this is less a commentary on Robinson than a concern over the state of the Jaguars. Jacksonville made significant defensive upgrades, drafting Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack, and signing Malik Jackson. They’ll also get last year’s first round pick, defensive end Dante Fowler, in the fold for the first time after he missed all of last season with a torn ACL. The Jags also strengthened their running game, signing Chris Ivory away from the Jets. In short, they should be a lot more competitive this season, and that’s bad news for Robinson’s fantasy value, as well as that of Blake Bortles and Allen Hurns. Robinson was eighth in the NFL with 153 targets last season, while Bortles attempted 606 passes. That’s going to happen when a team is 24th in total defense and 31st in points allowed. Jacksonville’s defense can’t help but improve, and there’s a real chance it’s much better than it was last season. Robinson is a safe WR1, but no one should expect him to repeat last year’s numbers.

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