MLB Spring Training Preview: Shohei Ohtani, the Yankees and Much, Much More
The two best hitters over the past three years changed teams this offseason. In a stroke of good fortune for baseball marketers, both wound up with glamor teams in the two biggest markets.
Juan Soto was traded to the New York Yankees on Dec. 7. Four days later, Shohei Ohtani signed as a free agent with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
As spring training starts, roughly 1,800 players are competing for the 780 Opening Day roster spots. Just as many narratives abound. For the first time in 22 years, for instance, neither Dusty Baker nor Terry Francona is managing a team. They have been replaced by Joe Espada with the Houston Astros and Stephen Vogt of the Cleveland Guardians, two first-time managers among seven new hires.
But no narratives are bigger than Soto to the Yankees and Ohtani to the Dodgers. Soto is charged with helping the Yankees restore their glory after they missed the postseason last year and a 14th straight World Series, their longest drought since they went to their first in 1921.
Ohtani, who never saw the postseason in six years with the Los Angeles Angels, knows the goal for the Dodgers is to win it all, especially after their 327 wins over the past three seasons evaporated into a 6–12 postseason record—while getting bounced each time with home field advantage and by teams with a combined 56 fewer wins.
Over the past three seasons, only 63 players have piled up 1,500 at-bats. Among them, Ohtani and Soto rank first and second in OPS+ at 161 and 160, respectively. There is a gap between them and everybody else, until Freddie Freeman, Ohtani’s teammate, shows up at 151.
Soto and Ohtani each changed teams this offseason, heading to the Yankees and Dodgers, respectively.
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This year, Ohtani can focus his gameplay entirely on hitting as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. Given the Mariana Trench–deep Dodger lineup, that’s a scary proposition for opposing pitchers because Ohtani is coming off a career-best offensive season while doing his pitching gig 23 times. The Mookie Betts-Freeman-Ohtani triumvirate could be one of the best in history—and could mean a huge season by Will Smith, a career .295 hitter with runners in scoring position who will see as much traffic as the Dodger Stadium egresses.
We can’t wait to see it, which is why it’s appropriate that the Dodgers open the season early against Soto’s old team, the San Diego Padres, March 20–21 in Seoul, South Korea.
In the meantime, let’s enjoy the leisurely pace of spring training, when SPF matters more than OPS, throwing down a blanket on an outfield berm beats a box seat and prospects with football numbers introduce themselves. To get you ready for baseball, here is your need-to-know guide for spring training, featuring the biggest stories and most important names across Florida and Arizona:
The Dodgers’ rotation
Starting pitchers in the Los Angeles camp include Walker Buehler (coming off Tommy John surgery), Ohtani (unavailable to pitch this year because of Tommy John surgery), Yoshinobu Yamamoto (who never started more than 26 games in a season in Japan and did so on five or six days of rest), Clayton Kershaw (out until the second half because of shoulder surgery), Tyler Glasnow (who has never thrown more than 120 innings), Bobby Miller (who threw a career-high 138 2/3 innings last year), Emmet Sheehan (who threw a career-high 123 1/3 innings last year), Ryan Yarbrough (a spot starter who, at age 32, has never thrown more than 155 innings) and James Paxton (who’s 35 and has made 25 starts over the past four years).
That’s nine pitchers, none of whom can be counted on to throw 162 innings.
Problem? Not a problem.
This is how the Dodgers roll. They throttle workloads with depth and by building in extra days of rest between starts.
Since Dave Roberts became manager in 2016, the Dodgers have had only nine qualified starters in eight years, none more than twice. In those eight years, only the Angels started pitchers with four days rest less frequently than did the Dodgers.
And guess who has the best record in baseball during those eight years of cutting back on starters’ workload?
Yep, the Dodgers. And it’s not even close—by 38 more wins than anybody else.
They know what they’re doing. They taper work for six months with the express purpose of having four fresh starters lined up for October.
The Orioles’ rotation
Different story here. It might not be enough, even with Corbin Burnes, who is the most impactful trade piece other than Soto. Kyle Bradish is out with a UCL sprain and John Means has residual elbow issues common with recovering from Tommy John surgery. Grayson Rodriguez has the stuff to be an ace, but that’s a big ask this soon after Baltimore increased his innings at age 23 a whopping 60% over his previous high. That’s especially concerning for someone with unique mechanics. The Orioles’ depth includes Tyler Wells, Cole Irvin, Jonathan Heasley and Bruce Zimmermann.
First-year players
Until 2015, there had never been a baseball season in which 10 players hit more than 10 homers in their debut season. Last year marked the sixth time it’s happened in eight years since.
Holliday, the No. 1 pick in the 2022 draft, is widely viewed as the game's top prospect.
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When it comes to making an impact, no experience is necessary. The ones to watch this spring (with a chance at cracking an Opening Day roster or soon after) are shortstop Jackson Holliday of Baltimore, outfielders Jackson Chourio of the Milwaukee Brewers, Wyatt Langford of the Texas Rangers and Jung Hoo Lee of the San Francisco Giants, second baseman Colt Keith of the Detroit Tigers and pitchers Yamamoto, Shota Imanaga of the Chicago Cubs and Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates.
New rules (yes, again)
The 20-second pitch timer with runners on has been reduced to 18 seconds. It’s not a big deal, considering pitchers started their delivery last year with an average of 7.3 seconds left on the clock (and considering games picked up some dawdle time as the season progressed).
Secondly, the running lane to first base now allows the runner the entire width of the dirt lane, not that thin strip on the foul side that borders the foul line.
Thirdly, infielders will be called for obstruction if they block the runner from a base with their body while “not in the act of fielding the ball.” It’s not a new rule, but an announced crackdown on the existing rule. Basically, it means no more dropping to a knee and blocking the base with a leg while preparing for a tag.
The key Yankees
No, it’s not Soto, who is about as consistent an elite player as you can find. (And no, the short porch of Yankee Stadium will not provide for a monster home run season. Soto is at his best when he is not a pull hitter. Only 38% of his career home runs have been hit to the pull side.)
The Yankees need Carlos Rodón, 31, and DJ LeMahieu, 35, to reverse declines.
Rodón embedded with Yankees training staff this winter after a rocky transition to his new team last year led to a back injury and his fastball getting waffled, managing only 14 starts.
LeMahieu has lost exit velocity and bat speed over the past three years, which has caused more swing and miss (career high 22% strikeout rate last year) and a loss of trust to hit the ball deep, depleting his once prolific inside-out swing (career-low 27.5% opposite field rate).
Mildly hot corner battles
What’s up with third base? Third basemen last year posted the second-lowest average in history (.244), the worst since 1968. Only 10 players started 120 games at third, equaling a 12-year low. The on-base percentage at third base each of the past two seasons has been .316, the first time it’s been that bad in back-to-back years since 1916 and ’17. No wonder plenty of jobs are open.
The Cubs will look at Christopher Morel at third base, where they also have Patrick Wisdom, Miles Mastrobuoni and Nick Madrigal.
The Tigers can choose from among Zach McKinstry, Matt Vierling, Andy Ibañez and Jace Jung.
The New York Mets are leaning toward Brett Baty, but have Mark Vientos, Joey Wendle and Zack Short to challenge him.
The Blue Jays brought in Eduardo Escobar to add to an already crowded group that includes multi-position options Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Cavan Biggio, Santiago Espinal, Davis Schneider and Ernie Clement.
Welcome back
All eyes will be on spring training performances of Pittsburgh Pirates shortstop Oneil Cruz, Dodgers shortstop Gavin Lux and pitcher Buehler, Atlanta Braves pitcher Tyler Matzek and Mets pitcher Edwin Díaz, all of whom missed last season with injuries.
A broken ankle limited Cruz, 25, to just nine games in 2023.
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And keep an eye on Angels outfielder Mike Trout, who played one game after the Fourth of July because of a broken bone in his thumb. Trout, 32, hasn’t had 500 at-bats in a season since he was 24. In the past seven seasons he has missed 34% of the Angels’ games.
Position changes
The Padres gave $340 million to shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. and $280 million to shortstop Xander Bogaerts but have moved both off the position to accommodate Ha-Seong Kim, whom they signed for $28 million. Bogaerts will move to second base just one year into his contract.
Elsewhere, Betts becomes the (mostly) everyday second baseman for the Dodgers while the Yankees are prepared to risk Aaron Judge more frequently in center field, where he started only 16 times last year after a career-high 74 in 2022.
The Boras Five
Pitchers Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger, third baseman Matt Chapman and designated hitter J.D. Martinez remain unsigned. All are clients of agent Scott Boras, who promises they will be ready to hit the ground running whenever they do sign. It’s not unusual to have players unsigned when camp opens, but it is unusual to see so many elite players still out there for the taking. The Boras Five includes four of the top eight free agents this season and about 25% of a free agent market worth approximately $3.3 billion.
The right call
Jen Pawol, 47, becomes the first woman to umpire Major League spring training games since 2007. That means Pawol, an eight-year minor league umpire, will be placed on the MLB Call-Up list, the roster of Triple-A umpires from which MLB chooses its fill-in or additional umpires as they are needed due to matters such as injury or vacation.
And that means that Pawol will be one phone call away from becoming the first woman to umpire a major league game. Pawol is a graduate of West Milford (N.J.) High School and Hofstra University, where she played softball as a catcher. She umpired NCAA softball before attending an MLB/MiLB tryout camp for umpires in 2015.
Where’s Bubba?
Have speed, will travel. That’s the story of Bubba Thompson, 25, an outfielder, former first-round draft pick and one of the fastest players in baseball. (Only Elly de la Cruz, Bobby Witt Jr., Dairon Blanco and Trea Turner had better sprint speeds last year.) Thompson has changed organizations five times in the past six months, including a 15-day stay with the Yankees, a 14-day tenure with the Twins and two tenures with the Reds, his latest team.
Why all the movement? With a high-strikeout, low-power history, Thompson doesn’t profile as an everyday player yet. But with his age, speed (his minor league success rate stealing bags is 83%) and improving plate discipline, Thompson could be a perfect extra outfielder under the new rules that create more value for his skills.
Where in the world is Diego?
In Bubba-like fashion, infielder Diego Castillo, 26, has been dropped by teams five times in the past seven weeks: by the Arizona Diamondbacks, Mets, Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies and Orioles—and that was after he had been traded twice in the previous two years.
Most recently, the Orioles dropped Castillo on Sunday, just two days after they picked him up after the Phillies had him for eight days. Stay tuned.
