Wimbledon men's seed report: Watch out for Roger Federer
SI.com's Jon Wertheim breaks down the men's seeds at Wimbledon. Read on for the dark horses, top first-round matchups and predictions. Click here for the women's report. The men's draw is available here.
Top 16 seeds
1. Novak Djokovic: The good news: He's the top seed and still wins matches as a matter of ritual. The less good news: He has won just one Grand Slam title in the last two years and has lost in five of his last six major finals. Plus, he might have a recurrence of the wrist injury that plagued him during the clay-court season.
2. Rafael Nadal: After reaching the final for five straight years he played (2006-08 and '10-11), the two-time champion lost in the second round in '12 and the first round last year. Old friend Lukas Rosol lurks in the second round and big-serving Ivo Karlovic in the third.
3. Andy Murray: The defending champion comes in energized by a new coach, Amelie Mauresmo. He hasn't reached a tournament final since winning Wimbledon last year.
4. Roger Federer: The seven-time winner sure can't complain about his draw as he seeks his first major title since Wimbledon two years ago and second since the 2010 Australian Open. Asked after the French Open if he felt like he could still win the grass-court major, Federer said: "I do. ... When I'm healthy, like I have been now for the last six to nine months, I can decide the outcome of the matches more than I could last year. So I'm very excited about my chances for Wimbledon."
5. Stan Wawrinka: The Australian Open champion is coming off a first-round loss at the French Open and a decisive defeat to Grigor Dimitrov in his grass-court tune-up. His first-week draw looks manageable, but you have to wonder where his head is...
6. Tomas Berdych: The Czech has been to the Wimbledon final. He's also flamed out unfashionably early.
7. David Ferrer: Grass is a challenge for him in the best of times, though he has reached the quarterfinals in each of the last two years.
8. Milos Raonic: The 23-year-old Canadian should have a better grass record than he does, having lost in the second round in all three starts. Look for him to do much better. Raonic has a real shot at the semifinals, especially if Nadal gets picked off early from the same quarter.
9. John Isner: The only seeded American has to hope he gets through early matches quickly. Gratuitous 70-68 mention goes here. He's in a soft part of the draw but could get Federer in the quarters.
10. Kei Nishikori: After a smashing start to the year, the best Japanese player ever was clearly compromised in Paris (where he was barely able to complete his first-round defeat). Has he healed in the last 25 days or so?
11. Grigor Dimitrov: Likable game (which won him a grass-court title last week in London), likable personality. He had the misfortune of facing Karlovic in the first round in Paris. With a kinder draw (he'll meet No. 140 Ryan Harrison in the first round and a 20-year-old, No. 237 Luke Saville or No. 56 Dominic Thiem, in the second), look for him to go far here.
12. Ernests Gulbis: Let's see if he can build on his career-best semifinal appearance at the French Open with a deep run at Wimbledon. If nothing else, we eagerly await his interactions with the tabloid press.
13. Richard Gasquet: A good bet to reach the fourth round and go no farther.
14. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: Perhaps, inspired by Tony Parker and Boris Diaw, JWT has a deep run in him. Lord knows, he's due.
15. Jerzy Janowicz: A semifinalist last year, Oversized Jerzy (ranked 24th) got a huge boost from the seeding formula. We know about the big serve, but his only two victories since February came at the French Open. Janowicz-Federer is a potential fourth-round match.
16. Fabio Fognini: The creative, combustible Italian is always fun to watch, but he's never been past the third round in five attempts.
Seeds 17-32 to watch
17. Mikhail Youzhny: The deceptively heavy hitter has advanced to the fourth round in each of the last three years.
18. Fernando Verdasco: He had Murray in a two-set hole in last year's quarterfinals.
19. Feliciano Lopez: The three-time quarterfinalist is ranked 25th but seeded 19th. Which tells you about his aptitude on grass.
20. Kevin Anderson: Modest Wimbledon results, but the kind of serve-first-ask-questions-later game well suited for grass.
22. Philipp Kohlschreiber: He made the 2012 quarterfinals but also has five first-round exits in nine visits.
24. Gael Monfils: Because he is Gael Monfils.
26. Marin Cilic: You'll recall that his Wimbledon ended abruptly last year.
29. Ivo Karlovic: Danger. You want him nowhere near you.
31. Vasek Pospisil: Amid a brutal year -- mostly because of injury -- he's come due for an uptick.
Dark horse stable
Lleyton Hewitt: The 33-year-old's days of winning majors are long gone, but the 2002 champ can still make life miserable for the right (wrong) opponent. He could get Janowicz in the third round and Federer in the fourth.
Kenny De Schepper: Look for him beat Nishikori in the first round.
Dustin Brown: Big serve. Knows his way around the net. Won two rounds last year as a qualifier. Beat Nadal in a grass tune-up. We're in.
Sergiy Stakhovsky: He showed last year that his game is well-designed for grass.
Sam Groth: Titanic serve (+ Kia endorsement) = Wimbledon success.
Gilles Muller: It's not often we tip a qualifier, but the hard-serving lefty can be tricky. He opens against Julien Benneteau and could face Federer in the second round.
First-round matches to watch
No. 2 Rafael Nadal vs. Martin Klizan: Klizan is dangerous and Nadal has the unfortunate recent history.
No. 15 Jerzy Janowicz v. Somdev Devvarman: Their match in Australia last year gifted us this.
No. 21 Alexandr Dolgopolov vs. Sam Groth: Big upset potential.
No. 11 Grigor Dimitrov vs. Ryan Harrison: Another major, another seed for Harrison in the first round.
Bradley Klahn vs. Sam Querrey: A Californian will win.
Bob and Mike Bryan: It's been a year since they won a major. Time to get back to their winning ways.
Semifinals: Grigor Dimitrov vs. Novak Djokovic; Roger Federer vs. Milos Raonic
Final: Grigor Dimitrov vs. Roger Federer
Winner: Roger Federer