Six Teams (and One Conference) With a Lot on the Line Before Selection Sunday

Welcome to the final stretch. Selection Sunday is less than a month away. Most teams have just a handful of regular-season games left and, for now, we can only assume conference tournaments are proceeding as usual. We know Gonzaga and Baylor can sleep comfortably as the top two teams right now, but the rest of the field is still a bit muddy, with the nature of this season leading to some big variance in strength of schedule, and way fewer games played across the board at this point in mid-February.

From the No. 1 seed line down to the outskirts of the bubble, here’s a look at some of the teams with quite a bit at stake over the next few weeks.

Michigan (14–1)

At a glance it may not seem like Michigan has much work left to do, but the Wolverines are still staring down one of the tougher remaining schedules in the country. There’s an opportunity to sew up (or lose) a No. 1 seed—which would all but guarantee avoiding Gonzaga and Baylor until the Final Four. They’ll draw Rutgers at home on Thursday before a huge matchup at Ohio State Sunday. They still have Indiana and Michigan State on the road, Iowa at home and the sneaky possibility of a rescheduled matchup with Illinois, whom the Wolverines have yet to face.

The downside of having a comfortable position is having to defend it. With a handful of teams (including Ohio State and Illinois) still legitimately jockeying for what we can assume are two one-seeds, all Michigan can really do is hold ground or lose it. Juwan Howard has engineered a top-10 team on both ends of the floor, and they’ve ably weathered Hunter Dickinson hitting the freshman wall. Isaiah Livers is playing the most consistent ball of his career. This team is clearly more than the sum of its parts. Yet the Wolverines only have the two Wisconsin wins and Purdue on the road as legit résumé markers. They could use a big final push, and without one, they could conceivably fall to the two or three line on Selection Sunday.

MORE: Who Can Prevent a Gonzaga-Baylor Title Game?

Virginia (11–2)

At this point we’re pretty sure this is another good Virginia team, but it’s also fairly evident it may not be truly great. Saturday’s win at home over a very bubble-y North Carolina team somehow stands as the Cavaliers’ best of the season—whomping Clemson by 25 on the road looked a lot better a month ago. I’m willing to throw out a weird early-season loss to San Francisco, but Virginia could not hang with Gonzaga at all and fell apart against Virginia Tech and Florida State on the road. It’s hard to see a true contender here, but they’re sitting as a No. 3 seed in our most recent projections, and after beating pretty much everyone they’re supposed to beat, the Hoos have at least earned that.

Of course the ACC on whole is massively underwhelming this year. It underscores the fact that Virginia can’t afford a major slipup, with potentially challenging road games left against Duke (not a good team, little to lose) and Louisville (fairly good team, lots left to play for). The Cavs are nothing if not consistent, but they can be outgunned: In all four losses, opponents shot 46% or better from distance and made nine or more threes. As history has shown, Virginia’s slow, preferred pace can leave it vulnerable on the wrong night. The cushier a first-round opponent it can draw, the better, and winning out would help the cause. Conversely falling to the four or five line would not be ideal.

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UConn (10–5)

UConn entered Tuesday as one of SI’s projected last four in—before the news came out that James Bouknight would make his return that night. He scored a convincing 18 points in a win over Providence. The Huskies play extremely hard, and managed to stay afloat without him by leaning on upperclassmen R.J. Cole and Tyrese Martin. They have two consequential road dates remaining against Villanova and Seton Hall, in addition to whatever the Big East tournament looks like. This is a real opportunity to play their way off the bubble and firmly into at-large territory.

Bouknight may be the best scorer in college basketball. Full stop. And he looked plenty healthy on Tuesday after returning from elbow surgery. With him active early in the season, UConn beat USC on a neutral court (a win that looks extremely strong in hindsight) and took Creighton to overtime in a narrow loss where Bouknight scored 40 points. There’s enough here to make the Huskies a dangerous early-round team in March. But, of course, they need to make sure they get there first and every game counts now.

Oklahoma State (14–6)

Oklahoma State’s appeal process with the NCAA continues to drag out. As long as it remains that way, the Cowboys and star playmaker Cade Cunningham are eligible for the tourney and can delay their one-year postseason ban. At this point they’ve done enough to earn an at-large bid, and not getting to see Cunningham perform on the big stage would be a huge buzzkill (and, frankly, a bad look for the sport). This is a legit competitive team that has played everyone but Baylor close. SI last projected Oklahoma State as a No. 7 seed, and there’s a huge opportunity for Mike Boynton’s group to work up—or lose ground—over the next few weeks.

Without accounting for any rescheduling the Cowboys have three huge regular-season games firmly on the docket: at home against Texas Tech (whom they upset in overtime on the road in January), and a home-away series against rival Oklahoma (currently projected to earn a top-four tournament seed). They likely won’t be favored in any of them. These are meaningful chances to beef up the résumé, headlined by a double-OT win over Texas. But losing all three could put Oklahoma State on unstable ground going into the Big 12 tournament.

Missouri (13–6)

After pulling out a huge upset of Alabama on Feb. 6, Mizzou has more or less fallen apart, losing three straight to Mississippi (that one was ugly), Arkansas (in overtime, respectable) and Georgia (shrug). Hard times may be falling on the Tigers, who also boast huge wins over Illinois, Tennessee and Oregon, but currently project as a No. 6 seed and could tumble much further if this skid persists. Let it be said that Missouri is not a particularly good team on either side of the ball, and subject to the whims of star guard Xavier Pinson, who has been entirely feast or famine for the past month. It’s been nearly a month since they played convincing basketball.

There’s a glimmer of hope in Mizzou’s remaining schedule, which is soft on paper: Saturday at South Carolina, then Mississippi and Texas A&M at home, and finally, Florida on the road. The first three games would feel like obvious get-right spots if the Tigers weren’t in such an alarming spiral. They’re a very streaky shooting team (31% from distance) that still attempt a ton of threes (21.4 per game) and have totaled seven more turnovers than assists through 19 games. Without a rapid turnaround this situation looks problematic.

Saint Louis (11–3)

After COVID-19 protocols wiped out nearly all of the Billikens’ January slate, they’re sitting on the bubble in a pretty strong Atlantic 10, having won four straight and with Dayton, VCU and Richmond all left on the schedule. There could be as many as three or four bids coming out of the conference: VCU seems to be in right now, but the SLU-St. Bonaventure-Richmond trio are all alive. The Billikens at their best may actually be the scariest team of the four, with Jordan Goodwin and Javonte Perkins leading a physical, tough team that shoots the ball fairly well and rarely turns it over. Early wins over LSU and NC State and a close loss to Minnesota speak to the caliber of the team. But having played just 14 games so far, there’s still a lot for the Billikens to prove within the context of their conference in order to secure firm at-large standing. If Saint Louis makes it in, this is an intriguing early-round sleeper.

The Mountain West

Entering Tuesday, we projected three Mountain West teams to make the tourney: San Diego State, Utah State and Boise State. A fourth, Colorado State, sits within striking distance, and the four all sit tied for first in the loss column after the Broncos' Wednesday win over the Aggies. This is pretty impressive territory for the conference on the whole, provided it doesn’t eat itself alive over the next few weeks. San Diego State boasts the best nonconference résumé and most balanced team of the four. All those teams still have a chance to win the conference and any of them could potentially make a little noise in the tourney.