The Final Over/Under
Mike Lopez, an assistant professor of statistics at Skidmore College and the brains behind StatsbyLopez.com, has put together the above infographic showing how NFL teams finished the 2014 regular season in relation to the predictions of sportsbooks and statheads.
The visual is pretty much self-explanatory: The Buccaneers, Titans, Bears and Saints were among the biggest underachievers, while the Cowboys, Cardinals and Lions were the biggest surprises to oddsmakers and pundits.
The statheads category is composed of five of the most popular entities that make NFL predictions: Team Rankings, Accuscore, FiveThirtyEight, Prediction Machine and Football Outsiders. A full explanation of Lopez’s methodology and findings can be found on his website, but if you're looking for advice next season, Team Rankings has outperformed Vegas in each of the past two seasons.
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