NFL Week 9 Betting Preview: Early Line Movement and Odds Tracking
After eight weeks of NFL action, sports bettors continue to witness underdogs holding a slight edge in the wagering outcome with a mark of 67-51-1 (56.8%).
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The action returns Thursday night with a primetime clash between the Jets and Colts in Indianapolis. The Colts are currently a 10.5-point home favorite with a total sitting on the game at 45.5 at SI Sportsbook.
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Let’s take an early look-ahead at several of the biggest games that have garnered significant betting attention resulting in noticeable line moves on the weekend slate.
Check the Week 9 Lines at SI Sportsbook
Brian Fluharty/USA TODAY Sports
NFL Week 9 Games ‘On The Move’
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars
Moneyline: Buffalo (-1000) | Jacksonville (+650)
Spread: BUF -14.5 (-110) | JAX +14.5 (-110)
Total: 48.5– Over: (-110) | Under: 48.5 (-110)
Game Info: Nov. 7, 2021 | 1 p.m. ET | CBS
Bettors are strongly investing that Josh Allen will steamroll a Jacksonville squad that is 1-6 Straight-Up (SU) this season.
This game opened in early wagering in August with Buffalo as 6.5-point favorites, but has since adjusted to the Jaguars as 14.5-point home underdogs at SI Sportsbook.
Buffalo, coming off a bounce-back win over Miami, will be looking to earn its third road victory of the season. The Bills possess the league’s best scoring defense (15.6 per game) and should easily shut down the 27th-ranked Jacksonville offense. averaging only 17.6 points per game. Bettors are investing that Buffalo will dismantle a Jaguars squad that has struggled defending it's home turf, posting a 0-3 SU and Against The Spread (ATS) mark this season. The Jaguars have lost 11 consecutive home games dating to 2020, which has resulted in a paltry 2-9 ATS (18%) mark.
BY THE NUMBERS
Public Betting: 69% of money on Buffalo
Line Move: Buffalo -6.5 to Buffalo -14.5
2021 Against the Spread Record
JAX: 2-5 ATS (Home: 0-3 ATS, Away: 2-2 ATS)
BUF: 5-2 ATS (Home: 2-1 ATS, Away: 3-1 ATS)
2020 Against the Spread Record
JAX: 7-9 ATS (Home: 3-5 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)
BUF: 10-6 ATS (Home: 6-2 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
Moneyline: Arizona (-118) | San Francisco (+100)
Spread: ARZ -1 (-110) | SF +1 (-110)
Total: 45.5– Over (-110) | Under 45.5 (-110)
Game Info: Nov. 7, 2021 | 4:25 pm ET | Fox
We have witnessed a dominant flip of favorites involving the Cardinals in Week 9 heading into San Francisco.
Arizona, coming off an upset home loss to Green Bay, will look to extend its road unbeaten streak to five games after posting a 4-0 SU and ATS in the first half of 2021.
This game opened with Arizona as a 5.5-point underdog in early wagering over the summer, but has since moved substantially to the Cardinals as 1-point road favorites at SI Sportsbook. Pro money is wagering that Arizona, with the fourth-best scoring offense (30.8 points per game) led by Kyler Murray, will handle a San Francisco club that is both 0-3 SU and ATS at home this season.
Arizona, who beat the 49ers, 17-10, in Week 5 as six-point home favorites, has won seven of the last 10 meetings with its NFC West division rival.
BY THE NUMBERS
Public Betting: 68% of money on Arizona
Line Move: Arizona +5.5 to Arizona -1
2021 Against the Spread Record
ARZ: 6-2 ATS (Home: 2-2 ATS, Away: 4-0 ATS)
SF: 2-5 ATS (Home: 0-3 ATS, Away: 2-2 ATS)
2020 Against the Spread Record
ARZ: 7-9 ATS (Home: 3-5 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)
SF: 6-10 ATS (Home: 1-5 ATS, Away: 5-3 ATS, Neutral: 0-2 ATS)
Nathan Ray Seebeck/USA TODAY Sports
Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs
Moneyline: Green Bay (+275) | Kansas City (-350)
Spread: GB +7 (-110) | KC -7 (-110)
Total: 47.5– Over: (-110) | Under: 47.5 (-110)
Game Info: Nov. 7, 2021 | 4:25 pm ET | CBS
This game has been the ultimate headache for oddsmakers since Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers will miss the game after testing positive for COVID-19.
The Chiefs, early 4-point home favorites in August, were adjusted to just a 2.5-point demand on Sunday’s opener. However, following strong public and pro steam backing Green Bay, oddsmakers at SI Sportsbook were forced to move the line to ‘Pick.
However, upon the news of Rodgers’ positive test and Jordan Love making his first career start, sportsbooks positioned Green Bay as 7.5-point underdogs.
The Packers, who are a perfect 4-0 ATS on the road this season, face a Chiefs squad that has burned bettors by going 2-5 ATS over their last seven contests and—even more surprisingly—is 0-4 ATS at Arrowhead Stadium this season. The Chiefs are a disappointing 3-9 ATS (25%) over their last 12 regular season home games.
Patrick Mahomes and company have been difficult to trust versus the number, posting a 9-15 ATS (38%) mark over their last 24 regular season games overall.
BY THE NUMBERS
Public Betting: 64% of money on Green Bay
Line Move: KC -4 to KC -2.5 to KC -7
2021 Against the Spread Record
GB: 7-1 ATS (Home: 3-1 ATS, Away: 4-0 ATS)
KC: 2-6 ATS (Home: 2-2 ATS, Away: 0-4 ATS)
2020 Against the Spread Record
GB: 10-6 ATS (Home: 5-3 ATS, Away: 5-3 ATS)
KC: 7-9 ATS (Home: 4-4 ATS, Away: 3-5 ATS)
Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys
Moneyline: Denver (+350) | Dallas (-450)
Spread: DEN +9.5 (-110) | DAL -9.5 (-110)
Total: 49.5– Over: (-110) | Under: 49.5 (-110)
Game Info: Nov. 7, 2021 | 1 p.m. ET | Fox
The Cowboys, who won in thrilling fashion in Cooper Rush’s first career start, hope to have star quarterback Dak Prescott (calf) back under center against the Broncos.
Dallas possesses the third-best scoring offense (32.1 points per game), and looks to extend its home win streak to five consecutive SU and ATS cashes. The Cowboys has been a cash cow for bettors in 2021, posting the only perfect ATS mark (7-0).
Bettors are fading a Broncos team that just snapped a four-game losing streak in Week 8 when it defeated Washington, 17-10, as 4-point home favorites.
The reluctance to back Denver is based on the angle that the Broncos have not beaten a team with a winning record this season. Denver has lost to the Browns, Raiders, Steelers and Ravens, while beating the Football Team, Jaguars, Jets and Giants, who are a combined 7-23 (.233) on the season.
Public Betting: 56% of money on Dallas
Line Move: Dallas -3.5 to Dallas -9.5
2021 Against the Spread Record
DEN: 4-4 ATS (Home: 2-2 ATS, Away: 2-2 ATS)
DAL: 7-0 ATS (Home: 3-0 ATS, Away: 4-0 ATS)
2020 Against the Spread Record
DEN: 9-7 ATS (Home: 4-4 ATS, Away: 5-3 ATS)
DAL: 5-11 ATS (Home: 4-4 ATS, Away: 1-7 ATS)
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Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
Check the Week 9 Lines at SI Sportsbook
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