Back to the Futures: Best Values Entering Second Half of NFL Season
Week 10 of the NFL season is already upon us! Now that the season is halfway over, it’s a great time to make some smart futures bets.
This is the third in a series of futures bets articles. Each week, I’ll examine the current odds and try to find the best values for your money. Again, what we are looking for is value, and that means we likely won’t be taking any current favorites.
Check the Latest Futures Odds at SI Sportsbook
Sam Greene/USA TODAY Network
This week, let’s take a look at Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Until this point, I didn’t see a lot of value in this category with Ja’Marr Chase being so heavily favored, but the lines have moved and there could now be some value here.
The top three in this race are:
Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase -145
Patriots QB Mac Jones +350
Steelers RB Najee Harris +900
Suddenly, I see value everywhere! If you like Chase, the fact that he hasn’t topped more than 50 yards in each of his last two games could actually work in your favor.
I am finally willing to take this bet at -145.
Mac Jones is great value at +350. A quarterback has taken the award the last two years, and though his numbers may not be as flashy as last year's winner, Justin Herbert, he’s quietly putting together a nice rookie season. Jones looks poised in Josh McDaniels’ offense, passing for 237.2 yards per game. Jones is on a three game win streak with plenty of soft matchups ahead: Atlanta, Miami and Jacksonville.
Perhaps my favorite bet of the three is Najee Harris at +900. Najee, quite simply, is a stud. Big Ben is declining, and the youthful back is providing the energy offensively.
Not only is Harris a monster on the ground, he has become a big part of the passing offense with JuJu Smith-Schuster sidelined. With Chase Claypool set to miss time with a foot injury, Harris’ arrow is pointing up. I expect Harris to regularly have 100-plus all-purpose-yard games. He’s a true bell-cow back in Mike Tomlin’s system, and with the Lions, Chargers and Chiefs looming, Harris could easily win this award.
Let’s also take a look at Defensive Rookie of the Year.
Micah Parsons is the favorite at -125, and I'm willing to make that bet. He's been a unicorn for the Dallas Defense. There’s no one like him. Parsons is the first player in NFL history to tally 50 tackles, 10 tackles for loss and five sacks in his first eight games.
I also like Giants linebacker Azeez Ojulari at +1100. The second-round pick has been excellent for the Giants, leading all rookies with 5.5 sacks.
Checking in on Comeback Player of the Year.
For a value pick, I recommended in the first week of this series taking Joe Burrow at +650 on SI Sportsbook rather than favorite Dak Prescott (-350).
One week later, and after Prescott missed a game, the odds at SI Sportsbook moved Burrow to +500 and Prescott to -333. But the Bengals' blowout loss to the Browns on Sunday bumped Burrow to +650, while Prescott is now at -375.
I still like Burrow at this value, so if you’re feeling the sophomore QB, grab that future.
Robert Scheer/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK
Finally, let’s check in on Offensive Player of the Year.
With Derrick Henry’s season likely over, here’s what appeared in this article last week:
“(Cooper) Kupp has now vaulted up the leaderboard, and as the current favorite, you are only getting +120. It could be your last chance for plus money,, but it’s not enough return for me. Kyler Murray remains in second place at +1200, and next in line are Josh Allen and Davante Adams at +1400. I still like Murray here, but now my eyes are turning toward the incredible value for Matt Stafford at +3000. If you like Kupp, how do you not also like (Matthew) Stafford?”
If you still like Stafford, he’s now +5000, and Adams is +2000.
But a new guy has caught my eye: Jonathan Taylor at +1400.
Taylor has been in beast mode as of late, and with Henry sidelined, he will soon lead the league in rushing yards. He has 821 rushing yards on the season, and he’s yet to top 20 carries. He’s averaging an incredible 5.9 yards per attempt. He’s also getting more involved in the passing game. As the Colts are getting healthier, Taylor will see more and more success. The Colts face the Jaguars twice in the second half of the season, including this week, as well as the Raiders and Texans, and that’s four games where I expect Taylor to run wild. Smash this bet now before it loses value.
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