Big Money Is Fading This Rams' Wide Receiver's Super Bowl LVI Player Props
We are less than a week away from Super Bowl LVI and the SI Betting team is here with great wagering and DFS information you need to have ahead of the Big Game!
Living in Vegas and being around the industry for more than a decade is arguably the best place you want to reside if you are an avid sports bettor. It has been financially beneficial for my bankroll, as well as for those who follow me for years can attest.
Working behind the counter in the back room of arguably the biggest sportsbook in Vegas at the time, as well as networking on the betting side of the counter with some of the sharpest bettors in the world has led to yearly success across multiple sports.
Last Thursday, Super Bowl proposition markets began to be released. With every passing year, it becomes more evident that sportsbooks will receive significantly more handle on props than they will on game and side wagering.
I will provide a series all week of the players/markets that respected money is either fading or backing both in Vegas as well as at SI Sportsbook.
Let’s dive right in!
According to John Murray, one of the preeminent sportsbook directors in Vegas, respected money faded one Rams' offensive player strongly off the opening numbers.
That player?
Second-year wideout Van Jefferson.
The former second-round pick was thrust into a more prominent role after Robert Woods (ACL) was lost for the season in November. However, the Rams acquired veteran Odell Beckham Jr. in Week 10. Following several games for Beckham to get fully assimilated to the offense, Jefferson saw his production tail off. Over his last seven games, the young wideout has hauled in more than 2-plus receptions only once while also failing to find the end zone or top 63 receiving yards.
Marcio Jose Sanchez/AP
In the playoffs, Jefferson has taken a back seat to Cooper Kupp and Beckham, which resulted in a paltry average of just 2.0 receptions for 19.0 yards per game in wins over the Buccaneers and 49ers. We also learned following the NFC championship game that Jefferson, hurt his knee which has thus far led to him being limited in practice.
When oddsmakers opened with a projection of 38.5 receiving yards for Jefferson, the market immediately drew the attention of respected money around Vegas as well as at SI Sportsbook. As of Tuesday morning, following strong respected steam, Jefferson’s receiving yards demand now stands at only 30.5 - an eight yard drop!
The steam continues to arrive, fading Jefferson’s production in Super Bowl LVI on another market - total receptions. The market originally opened at 2.5 at odds of -120 to the over. Since late last week, the juice has been drastically flipped by oddsmakers, forcing sports bettors to now lay prohibitive odds of -170 on the under!
Upon a deeper dive, we discover that Jefferson has posted less than 2.5 receptions in 10 of 20 games (50%) this season. However, it's the more discouraging trend of Beckham’s emergence as the clear WR2 over the last two months that we find the strong angle respected money is backing. Jefferson has hauled in two or fewer receptions in seven of the last eight games (88%). At a near 90% clip to the under, combined with a potential knee injury, I would not be surprised to see this projection lose the hook with a flat demand of only two receptions by kickoff.
According to the respected money in Vegas and at SI Sportsbook, sports bettors should be very careful when it comes to investing in solid production from Jefferson against Cincinnati in Super Bowl LVI.
SI NFL BET REVIEW
For the third consecutive week, respected plays on NFL Playoff wagering did not get off to a good start. Championship weekend commenced with Kansas City blowing a second half lead and losing to the Bengals at home as 7-point favorites. The outright loss by the Chiefs killed our teaser before we could even have the opportunity to get to the second leg of the 49ers at +10.5. However, the weekend closed out strong as the Rams and 49ers stayed under 46 total points enabling a solid cash. Our receiving yards parlay, hooking up Deebo Samuel over 51.5 rec yds with Travis Kelce over 76.5 rec yds came through at odds of +249. Our final wager involving an Anytime Touchdown Parlay of Travis Kelce combined with Cooper Kupp also cashed at odds of +194. Overall, we had our best weekend of the playoffs up 4.3 units on the two title games.
2021 SI Betting Monday Night Football: 9-8 ATS / Props 16-12 +5.75 Units
2021 SI Betting Playoffs: 8-6-1 ATS & Prop Wagers +5.00 Units
2021 SI Betting NFL Football Overall YTD: 53-43-1 ATS & Props +15.22 Units
2020 SI Betting NFL Football: 72-58-1 ATS (55%)
Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst who provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
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