Mets-Marlins, Mariners-Astros, Rangers-Angels Plus-Money MLB Bets

Plus-money bets and analysis for Friday’s Mets-Marlins, Mariners-Astros and Rangers-Angels games.

Author:
Jennifer Piacenti
Publish date:
Jul 29, 2022

In this story:

It’s Friday and that means it’s time to get in on the MLB action!

As the trade deadline approaches, be sure to pay attention to the news close to first pitch. Players could get pulled and lineups could change and that means the odds could shift as well. I’m presenting the value I see as of Friday morning, but it could be worthwhile to wait until closer to game time Friday to finalize your wagers.

If you’re just starting to follow, in my MLB bets series I try to only pick plus-money bets or bets with very little juice. The strategy is for our wins to pay more than we invested. Sometimes that means the “risk” is higher, but our bankroll is growing nicely.

We’re off to a 32-28 start to the season (53.3%) at SI Sportsbook and 29 of those wins paid plus-money. You can also track all my bets across all sports on SharpRank.

Bet on MLB at SI Sportsbook

National League pitcher Sandy Alcantara, of the Miami Marlins, throws a pitch to the American League during the second inning of the MLB All-Star baseball game, Tuesday, July 19, 2022, in Los Angeles. — Mark J. Terrill/AP

New York Mets (61-37) vs. Miami Marlins (47-52)

Moneyline: Mets (-125) | Marlins (+105)
Run line: Mets -1.5 (+145) | Marlins +1.5 (-175)
Total: 6.5 - Over (+100) | Under (-118)

I know the Mets are the better team, but are we really getting plus-money for a Sandy Alcantara start? Yes, please.

The Mets head to Miami with a bit of swagger after sweeping the Yankees in a two-game series in Queens. There’s no question they have momentum.

Chris Bassitt starts for the Metropolitans. Bassitt (7-7, 3.72 ERA) has been strong for New York this year, striking out 9.50 batters per nine innings. However, he also walks 2.60 batters per nine and has surrendered 1.24 home runs per nine (13th-worst in MLB). There is opportunity for the Marlins, even if their bats have been sluggish.

SI MLB: Will Jacob deGrom get the last laugh?

The Marlins have their ace, Alcantara (9-4, 1.81), on the bump. Alcantara is the heavy favorite at SI Sportsbook for NL Cy Young (-175), ahead of Mets ace Max Scherzer (+500). Alcantara has been brilliant this season, using a four-pitch mix and inducing a 56.5% ground ball rate. He’s allowing 2.24 walks per nine innings, but only 0.44 home runs per nine (tied for second best in MLB).

Alcantara is 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA against the Mets in three starts this year, while Bassitt is 1-2 with a 3.66 ERA in three starts against the Marlins.

The Mets have the offensive advantage and a better bullpen but I think Alcantara and the Marlins can pull this off by a narrow margin in a low-scoring game. Remember, Pete Alonso is hitting only .185 across 27 career at bats versus Alcantara.

Players to watch:

Francisco Lindor is batting .318 with one home run in 22 career at bats vs. Alcantara.

Bryan De La Cruz is batting .714 with a 1.144 expected slugging (xSLG) in eight plate appearances versus Bassitt.

The Miami offense is anemic, but I can’t pass up the value for Alcantara at home.

And, no, you don’t have to worry about Alcantara getting moved. He’s the only player the Marlins won’t listen to offers for in trade talks.

BET: Marlins moneyline (+105)

Houston Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander throws against the Seattle Mariners during the fifth inning of a baseball game, Saturday, July 23, 2022, in Seattle. — Ted S. Warren/AP

Seattle Mariners (54-46) vs. Houston Astros (65-35)

Moneyline: Mariners (+155) | Astros (-188)
Run line: Mariners +1.5 (-143) | Astros -1.5 (+120)
Total: 7.5- Over (+105) | Under (-125)

The Mariners continue to chase the Astros in the AL West and are looking to make up an 11-game deficit. The M’s were the hottest team in MLB before the break, but they have slowed down a bit of late—mostly due to losing four games to the Astros.

Seattle goes to battle Friday with the reigning AL Cy Young Robbie Ray (8-7, 3.90). Ray has been good this season and looked to have regained his dominance midway through June, but last week’s matchup in Seattle versus the Astros was a tough one for the lefty. Ray lasted only three innings, allowing six earned runs—including back-to-back home runs to leadoff hitter Jose Altuve and Jeremy Pena—and struck out only one batter.

Ray is walking 2.85 batters per nine and has a 16% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio (third-highest in MLB). That’s a recipe for potential disaster versus an Astros lineup that has the seventh-best walk rate and the third-most home runs in MLB.

Houston is sending ace Justin Verlander (13-3, 1.86) to the mound. Verlander has been spectacular this year coming off Tommy John surgery. He has won three of his four starts this season versus Seattle, striking out 35 Mariners in 28 2/3 innings.

Verlander has the second-best odds for AL Cy Young at SI Sportsbook (+250) behind Shane McClanahan (+150).

Both Houston’s and Seattle’s bat have both been underwhelming out of the All-Star Break but the Astros dominate left-handed pitching with a .181 ISO and 43 home runs.

Players to Watch

Altuve is batting .579 and slugging 1.158 versus Ray across 19 career at-bats, and is batting .310 with nine of his 19 home runs coming versus lefties.

Julio Rodriguez is one of the hottest players in baseball but he hasn’t had luck versus Verlander. J-Rod is hitting only .167 versus JV this year but one hit was a home run.

Ty France is hitting .353 in 17 career at bats versus Verlander.

Even though the Astros just got swept by the A’s, they should be in the driver’s seat Friday. Houston plays best versus good teams and the Mariners are a very good team. I’ll take this year’s Cy Young over last year’s (see what I did there?).

BET: Astros -1.5 (+120)

Texas Rangers’ Martín Perez pitches against the Oakland Athletics during the sixth inning of a baseball game in Oakland, Calif., Sunday, July 24, 2022. — Godofredo A. Vásquez/AP

Texas Rangers (44-54) vs. Los Angeles Angels (42-57)

Moneyline: Rangers (+100) | Angels (-110)
Run line: Rangers +1.5 (-200) | Angels -1.5 (+165)
Total: 7.5 - Over (+100) | Under (-118)

This bet isn’t so much for the Rangers as it is against the Angels.

The Angels are just so, so sad. It looks like Shohei Ohtani wants out, Mike Trout is dealing with a chronic back injury and Anthony Rendon‘s season is over.

I can’t back the home team Friday night.

Patrick Sandoval (3-6, 3.64) starts for the Halos and Sandoval has been very good for Los Angeles this year. However, his 3.64 ERA should be closer to 4.53 according to Statcast, and he’s coming off two straight poor starts in which he allowed nine earned runs over a combined 7 2/3 innings. His 4.18 walk rate is worst in the league.

All-Star Martin Perez (8-2, 2.59) is quietly having an excellent season. He doesn’t have a high strikeout rate like Sandoval, but he limits hard contact. Besides, it probably doesn’t even matter versus an Angels lineup with the highest strikeout rate (26.3%).

The Angels have scored a league-worst 2.60 runs per game since the All-Star Break, while the Rangers have scored 3.92. When facing lefties, the Rangers have the second-best ISO (.199) and the eight-best OPS (.758) in the league. The Angels have the fourth-lowest OPS (.646) and ISO (.123) in the league versus left-handed pitching.

Players to Watch

Nate Lowe is hitting .290 with six homers versus lefties this year. He has three home runs and is hitting .344 since the All-Star Break.

Ohtani is always a threat with an average exit velocity in the top 3% of the league and a 98th percentile barrel rate. Ohtani hits .289 at home this year and .222 on the road.

I just can’t get behind this Angels team, even at home.