Packers-Dolphins Christmas Week 16 Odds, Lines, Spread and Betting Preview

A best bet for Sunday’s Packers-Dolphins game. Miami is favored by more than a field goal at home.

Author:
Shawn Childs
Publish date:
Dec 21, 2022

In this story:

The Packers must win their remaining three games (@MIA, MIN, and DET) to keep their playoff hopes alive, but they need help from multiple other teams. Their two-game winning streak came after seven losses in eight matchups. Green Bay only has one victory (31-28 over the Cowboys) versus a team with a winning record.

Miami comes into Week 16 as the 7-seed with a one-game lead over two division rivals (NYJ – 7-7; NE – 7-7). The Dolphins won the first matchup versus the Patriots, while getting blown out by the Jets (40-17) in Week 5. They have rematches against both opponents over the final two weeks of the season.

Green Bay is 2-5 on the road while being outscored by 41 points. Its defense allowed less than 20 points in four of their six wins. The Packers must run the ball well to have a chance at winning. Miami will give up rushing touchdowns (327/1,408/14). Its best success defensively has come at home (15 points per game).

The Dolphins rushed for less than 100 yards in nine of their 14 games. Their offensive firepower comes from their wide receivers (206/3,054/16 on 305 targets), highlighted by the success of Tyreek Hill (109/1,529/7).

Green Bay Packers vs. Miami Dolphins Odds

Packers Straight-Up Record: 6-8
Packers Against The Spread Record: 6-8

Dolphins Straight-Up Record: 8-6
Dolphins Against The Spread Record: 7-7

Odds and Betting Insights

Both teams are trending in two different directions. Miami lost its last three games to playoff teams (49ers, Chargers and Bills) on the road. The Packers hope to extend their two games winning streak.

The over/under (49.5) matches the highest total for Green Bay in 2022. Four of their previous five games landed on the over side of the betting total.

Miami failed to cover the spread in seven of the past 11 matchups, while the over came in five times over their past seven matchups. The Dolphins are 5-1 at home with a 4-2 record against the spread.

The game expects to be close, with the edge going to the Dolphins. Green Bay has risk defending the run (399/2,012/15), but Miami tends to struggle running the ball. My bet lies in the Dolphins’ home record and their two top wide receivers.