Grizzlies vs. Warriors Odds, Bets, Picks: Memphis Will Run up The Score on Christmas
This is a matchup months in the making. The Grizzlies-Warriors rivalry dates back to their 2022 six-game, second-round battle, which Golden State won.
There’s been no shortage of back and forth-between the sides since.
Ja Morant and Draymond Green both tweeted about the seemingly inevitable Christmas Day rematch over the summer with Green reminding Morant “the champs play at home.” That ended up being the case when the schedule was released.
With Finals MVP Steph Curry (shoulder) in street clothes, Memphis is a road favorite in the first of four Grizzlies-Warriors games this season. Golden State has slipped out of a play-in spot entirely without Curry for the last week and a half and Andrew Wiggins (groin) out since the beginning of December.
The Grizzlies could get Desmond Bane (toe) back this weekend as he was upgraded to questionable for Friday’s game against the Suns. The Warriors have a long layoff from their last game Wednesday against the Nets to Sunday’s showcase. They also have the added advantage of playing at the Chase Center, where they are 12–2 compared to 3–16 on the road.
Grizzlies vs. Warriors Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under
Time: 8 p.m. ET (ABC, ESPN)
Spread: Grizzlies -4.5 (+100) | Warriors +2 (-110)
Moneyline: Grizzlies (-167) | Warriors (+140)
Total: 227.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Place your bets on SI Sportsbook
Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports
Memphis Grizzlies Offense and Defense Stats
Memphis lost its last two after beginning the month with seven wins in a row. The loss to Oklahoma City came with Morant out for the second half after an early ejection and the Grizzlies dropped their second game of a four-game road trip Tuesday in Denver, despite Morant’s 35 points.
Getting Bane back in the lineup would be huge for coach Taylor Jenkins, who has yet to have his entire starting five available this season. Even without Bane, who was averaging nearly 25 ppg on 45% shooting from deep, Memphis is 11th in offensive rating and fifth in defensive rating.
The Grizzlies are the No. 1 rebounding team in the league and if Jaren Jackson Jr. had played enough games to be qualified, he would be leading the NBA in blocks per game by a wide margin. Though Golden State won the playoff matchup, Memphis took the season series, 3–1, last year and all but one of those games were decided by single digits.
Kyle Terada/USA TODAY Sports
Golden State Warriors Offense and Defense Stats
Jordan Pooleis the Warriors’ leading scorer at 19.1 ppg with Curry and Wiggins out. Even before one of the team’s top wing defenders and the two-time MVP went out, the Dubs were falling well short of championship-level basketball. They ranked 13th in offensive rating and 25th in defensive rating. They do lead the NBA in three-pointers made per game (16.2), though Curry accounts for about a third of that production.
Kevon Looney will have his hands full inside trying to battle with the Memphis big men inside for rebounds and Poole and Klay Thompson will have to deal with a rotating cast of talented wing defenders with a larger-than-usual offensive load on the two of them.
Betting Prediction and Analysis
Even considering Golden State’s record at home, a 1–6 mark without Curry and back-to-back 30-plus-point losses in New York heading into this matchup makes Memphis an easy pick to cover. The Warriors got up to beat the Celtics a few weeks ago, but that was with Curry in the lineup. This is an opportunity for the fully healthy Grizzlies to score a convincing win on national television against the severely shorthanded Warriors after months to sit with that defeat in the playoffs. I think they capitalize on it, and run up the score a bit in the process.
BEST BET: Grizzlies -4.5 (+100), Over 227.5 (-110)
Grizzlies Betting Record and Stats
Straight-Up Record: 19–11
Against The Spread Record: 14–14–2
Over/Under Record: 14–15–1
Points Per Game (Rank): 115.4 (8)
Points Allowed Per Game (Rank): 111.2 (9)
Warriors Betting Record and Stats
Straight-Up Record: 15–18
Against The Spread Record: 14–19
Over/Under Record: 20–12–1
Points Per Game (Rank): 116.5 (5)
Points Allowed Per Game (Rank): 117.9 (28)
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