NBA on Christmas: Lakers vs. Mavericks Picks, Odds, and Best Bets

Two of the NBA's biggest stars share the court on Christmas when LeBron James and the Lakers travel to Dallas to take on Luka Dončić and the Mavericks.

Author:
Kyle Wood
Publish date:
Dec 23, 2022

In this story:

Los Angeles Lakers

Dallas Mavericks

For the second time in three seasons the Lakers and Mavericks will face off on Christmas and there’s plenty of star-power on both rosters. But it’s not necessarily a meeting between Western Conference heavy hitters.

Dallas is clinging onto a play-in spot and a .500 record and Los Angeles is trying to fight its way up the standings just to catch the Mavs. L.A. will have to do so without Anthony Davis, who was on a tear before a foot injury sidelined him a week ago and is now out indefinitely.

The Lakers lost their last two ahead of a Friday night matchup with the Hornets at home. LeBron James (ankle) and Russell Westbrook (foot) are both probable entering the weekend. The Mavericks split a two-game set with the Timberwolves earlier this week and are on the road Friday against the Rockets before they return home, where they are 12–5 compared to a 4–11 road record. The only Dallas starter on the injury report is Dorian Finney-Smith (hip), who’s out for Friday’s game.

Lakers vs. Mavericks Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under

Time: 2:30 p.m. ET (ABC, ESPN)

Spread: Lakers +7.5 (-118) | Mavericks -7.5 (+100)

Moneyline: Lakers (+240) | Mavericks (-300)

Total: 225.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)

Place your bets on SI Sportsbook

Los Angeles Lakers Offense and Defense Stats

The Lakers are 1–2 since Davis went down with a stress injury in his foot and 2–4 without him overall. It’s hard to overstate his impact for Los Angeles, especially over the last several weeks. He leads the team in points (27.4), rebounds (12.1), blocks (2.1) and steals (1.3) per game.

With Davis out of the lineup, James, Westbrook and Lonnie Walker IV must step up for a team that’s in the bottom third of the league in offensive rating. L.A.’s middling defense will also suffer in his absence, which is an issue against an offensive player as dominant as Luka Dončić.

LeBron James vs. Luka Doncic — Jerome Miron/USA TODAY Sports

Dallas Mavericks Offense and Defense Stats

The Mavericks have a huge advantage when it comes to outside shooting, they are the third-best team in three-pointers made per game (14.8) compared with the Lakers, who are dead last (9.9). With Dončić scoring more than 30 ppg and dishing nearly nine assists, Dallas is top 10 in offensive rating and he’ll get occasional blow-up performances out of Christian Wood, Spencer Dinwiddie or Tim Hardaway Jr.

Without Davis, the Lakers aren’t equipped to take advantage of perhaps the Mavericks’ biggest weakness—their size. Dallas ranks dead last in the league in rebounding.

Lakers vs. Mavericks Betting Prediction and Analysis

Over the last two seasons, Los Angeles has only won two of its last six games against the Mavericks —one by three points in overtime last season and a blow out win on Christmas in 2020. Dallas has won the other four, twice by double digits.

The Mavericks have the clear upperhand in this matchup, but covering a 7.5-point spread is a tall task for a team that’s been this poor against the spread. Of course, the Lakers are only a bit better when it comes to covering, though James tends to deliver on Christmas—he had 39 last season in a loss to the Nets—and Dallas hasn’t been putting up some of the high-scoring totals it did earlier this year. In a low-scoring game, I don’t see the Mavericks pulling away far enough to cover.

BET: Lakers +7.5 (-118), Under 225.5 (-110)