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MLB Betting Trends: More Home Runs, More Games Hitting the Over

As pitchers continue to adjust to the pitch clock, hitters are taking advantage.

We are only 17 days into the 2023 MLB season, but here are some early trends we are watching.

When we checked in last Monday, 78 games had hit the over (57.4%) as compared to 58 games with the under (42.6%). The numbers have evened a bit this week, but the over is still in the majority with 123 games (54.7%) going over and 102 games (45.3%) going under this year. Offense is up around the league, with an average of 4.66 runs per game as compared to 4.28 in 2022 -- and it’s only April. As the weather starts to warm, we may see an even bigger difference.

Jul 27, 2022; Los Angeles, California, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Patrick Corbin (46) closes his eyes and takes a breath after giving up his fourth run of the first inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium.

Also, continue to play the over when Patrick Corbin is pitching. Despite the Nationals winning the game on Sunday and Corbin pitching six innings, the score still ended easily over the 9.5 run total. The over has cashed in all four games in which Corbin has pitched this year. Despite a strong effort from Jose Berrios this week, the over has also cashed in all three of his starts this season. We will keep tracking this trend, which we noted here.

Here are four more trends to watch in MLB as you consider your wagers this week.

Home runs are up

Is the juiced ball back or are batters able to get the better of pitchers as they have to adjust to pitch clock? I’m not sure, but I am sure we can’t blame the shift for this one. Players are homering at a rate of one per every 33.7 plate appearances. For reference, in 2022, players homered at an average of only one per every 40.9 plate appearances. That’s an increase of 17.7% from 2022 to ‘23. Home run props are still like pulling a lotto ticket, but total bases props have become much more interesting.

Here are the most profitable teams for taking the over so far this year. The list may surprise you:

Baltimore Orioles (11-4-1) 73.3%
Tampa Bay Rays (10-4-2) 71.4%
Chicago White Sox (10-4-2) 71.4%

Only 10 teams have gone over fewer than 50% of the time. A few teams that may surprise you include:

San Diego Padres (8-9) 47.1%
New York Mets (7-9) 43.8%
New York Yankees (6-10) 37.5%

Rays and the run line

Last week we mentioned the Rays’ ridiculous run of covering the run line. Despite a pair of losses this week and a win with only a one-run margin, the Rays still have an 81.3% success rate covering the run line (13-3). The next best teams may also surprise you:

Arizona Diamondbacks (11-5) 68.8%
Cincinnati Reds (10-5) 66.7%
Chicago Cubs (9-5) 64.3%

Only 12 teams have covered the run line more than 50% of the time.

Home vs. road numbers

So far, home teams are having less success than road teams.

Home favorites have won 60.4% of the time, while away favorites have won 66% of the time.

Home favorites have covered the run line only 42.4% of the time, while away dogs are 57.6% ATS. 

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