2024 MLB Home Run Derby: Jose Ramirez is a long-shot worth a wager

Bet on Jose Ramirez tonight at +1400 to win the Home Run Derby

Jun 28, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez (11) hits a solo home run in the first inning against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports / Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Who else is ready for the MLB Home Run Derby tonight Arlington, Texas?

Jose Ramirez is set as a long-shot to win tonight's Derby, but if you dive into the numbers, he may just be worth a bet.

Before we dive into that, let's take a look at the new rules:

2024 MLB Home Run Derby Rules

In a change from years past, the first round will not consist of head-to-head matchups. Instead, all eight batters will have a turn with the top four batters advancing to the knockout stage. The player with the most home runs in the first round will be given the No. 1 seed. If there is a tie, the seeding or qualifying will be broken by the longest home run distance.

Batters will be limited to three minutes and a maximum of 40 pitchers for each of the first two rounds. The idea behind this is it will eliminate the need for pitchers to throw as many balls as possible, which could increase fatigue and injury risk. Batters also still receive one 45-second timeout per round. 

Each batter will see 27 pitches in the final round.

Bonus time will still be granted at the end of each round, just like in previous years. In this year's bonus round, players will continue until they record three outs, which is a hit ball that doesn't result in a home run. One extra out is awarded if a player hits a home run 425 feet or longer. 

A 60-second swing-off will break ties in the semifinals or finals. No timeouts will be granted during these 60 seconds. 

2024 MLB Home Run Derby Odds

Here are the 2024 competitors and their current odds at DraftKings Sportsbook:

• Pete Alonso +320
• Marcell Ozuna +425
• Bobby WItt, Jr. +425
• Gunnar Henderson +450
• Adolis Garcia +550
• Teoscar Hernandez +1100
• Jose Ramirez +1400
• Alec Bohm +1800

Jose Ramirez (+1400)

Ramirez may just present the best value in the field. Not only does he have 23 home runs this season, the third most amongst all participants, but all 23 of them would be out at Globe Life, the site of tonight's derby.

Ramirez also has the second-highest max exit velocity (116.6) behind only Witt, Jr., and the fourth-longest home run in 2024. Eight of his home runs would be out in any ballpark- one more than Hernandez and Garcia. It's also worth noting Ramirez is the only switch-hitter in the crew.

We are likely getting such a good price tag on him due to him being eliminated in the first round in 2022. With that being said, there are two things we should keep in mind about that exit:

1. He was eliminated 18-17 vs. Juan Soto, the eventual champion for 2022
2. We found out after the Derby that Ramirez was hitting with an injured thumb.

I'm not saying Ramirez wins, but he is far undervalued. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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