2024 MLB Home Run Derby: Should You Bet on Pete Alonso?

Pete Alonso is the favorite for tonight's Home Run Derby.

Jul 7, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20) prepares in the dugout before batting against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the sixth inning at PNC Park. The Mets won 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports / Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The MLB Home Run Derby is tonight at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas.

Should you bet on New York Mets star Pete Alonso to win this third Derby? 

There's new rules this year, which I outlined in this year's Home Run Derby best bets. Here's a small snippet from that:

The first round is no longer head-to-head. The four players with the most home runs in the first round will advance to the next round. They will be seeded for head-to-head "knockout style" in the semifinals. The player with the most home runs in the first round will grab the No. 1 seed, etc.   If there is a tie in the first round, the seeding or qualifying will be broken by the longest home run distance. 

In the first two rounds, the batter will be limited to three minutes, with a max of 40 pitches per round. This will eliminate the hurry for pitchers to throw as many balls as possible, which could increase fatigue and injury risk. Batters also still receive one 45-second timeout per round. 

The Final round will consist of just 27 pitches. 

Bonus time will be granted to each player at the end of each round. However, there will be no timer in the bonus round this season. Instead, the player will continue until he makes three outs (a ball that is not hit for a home run).  One extra out can be earned if a player hits a home run 425 feet or longer. 

A 60-second swing-off will break ties in the semifinals or finals. No timeouts will be granted during these 60 seconds. 

Alonso, a two-time Home Run Derby champion, enters this year's event as the betting favorite, but there are a few contenders that could challenge him for the crown. Here's a full look at the 2024 competitors and their current odds at DraftKings:

2024 MLB Home Run Derby Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Pete Alonso +320

• Marcell Ozuna +425

• Bobby WItt, Jr. +425

• Gunnar Henderson +450

• Adolis Garcia +550

• Teoscar Hernandez +1100

• Jose Ramirez +1400

• Alec Bohm +1800

Should Bettors Wager on Pete Alonso?

Pete Alonso (+320) Alonso is the only player on the list who has won this competition before, and he's won it twice. Alonso has 19 home runs this season, which ranks fifth among this year's competitors.  

All 19 of his home runs would also have been homers in Globe Life Park, and 10 would have been gone in any MLB park. 

Alonso still has a max exit velocity of 116.3, which is elite, but his other power metrics have fallen off quite a bit since his last win in 2021. In his age 29 season after an early exit from the Derby last year, I am going to fade him for this payout. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.