Brooks Koepka Undervalued, Ludvig Aberg Overvalued in PGA Championship Odds

Brian Giuffra | May 6, 2024

Brooks Koepka. / Edgar Su/Reuters via USA TODAY Sports

The golf season's second major is two weeks away and we’re already seeing some interesting odds movement ahead of the PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club on May 16-19.

PGA Tour rookie Ludvig Aberg has shot up the odds board this year and somehow has shorter odds than multiple major champions who are playing as well, if not better than him currently.

One of those players is reigning PGA Championship winner Brooks Koepka. A three-time winner of this event coming off an impressive performance that led to victory on the LIV Tour, Koepka is somehow sitting behind Aberg in odds to win, which seems insane considering his form and history at this event. But here we are.

Koepka is currently the fifth-betting favorite with odds of +1600 at FanDuel Sportsbook to hoist his fourth Wanamaker Trophy.

Aberg is +1500 at FanDuel to win the title. That’s tied with two-time major champion Jon Rahm for the third-shortest odds. Only Scottie Scheffler (+400) and Rory McIlroy (+1100) have shorter odds at FanDuel than Aberg.

Directly behind Aberg in the FanDuel odds are Xander Schauffele (+2100), Wyndham Clark (+2400), Collin Morikawa (+2900), and Cameron Smith (+2900), among others. Clark, Morikawa and Smith have all won majors and Schauffele has three-times more top fives in majors (6) than Aberg has appearances.

This is Aberg's second major championship appearance and first PGA Championship. Since its inception in 1916, only nine players have won the PGA Championship in their first appearance. Morikawa was the most recent in 2020. Before that it was Keegan Bradley in 2011 and Shaun Micheel in 2003.

Not impossible, but not likely either.

Aberg finished second at the Masters and T-10 at the RBC Heritage the week after. He’s playing in the PGA Tour’s Wells Fargo this week and his performance will be worth monitoring. Those odds still seem high given his lack of experience playing in majors.

Koepka, meanwhile, has rounded into form after a disappointing T-45 finish at the Masters. He admitted he felt “embarrassed” by his performance at Augusta and has a greater focus since, which has led to better results on LIV.

He won the LIV Golf tournament in Singapore this past weekend and shot a three-round 14-under to finish 10th in Australia the week before. His putter was on fire in Singapore and he continues to be one of the best ball strikers in the game.

Koepka won back-to-back PGA Championships in 2018-2019. He also won back-to-back U.S. Open titles in 2017-2018. Clearly, he knows how to string together major wins in the same event.

While he hasn’t played well at the most recent two majors (T-64 at the British Open last year to go along with his T-45 at Augusta), putting Koepka behind Aberg in the odds seems wild. Even DraftKings having Koepka and Aberg tied at +1600 is surprising.

Aberg has proven he can play with the most elite players in the world. But he’s yet to prove he can beat them. His lone PGA Tour win was a fall event last year where the top competitor was Mackenzie Hughes at four strokes behind him.

Not exactly a pressure-packed moment.

Aberg faced that pressure at Augusta on the back nine Sunday and pulled his approach shot into the water on 11 and made a double bogey. He rebounded with two birdies on 13 and 14, but he was so far behind Scheffler at that point there the pressure was gone.

This is not to say Aberg won’t contend at the PGA Championship or win a major in the future, maybe even this year. This is more of a note on the odds being off based on experience and historical performance.

Koepka should be ahead of Aberg in the odds, not behind or tied with him. That’s a bet worth considering.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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