2025 Players Championship Betting Preview: TPC Sawgrass Picks, Predictions and Odds

Driving accuracy is key at the PGA Tour’s flagship event and that's where Iain MacMillan starts his handicap at the Stadium Course.

Scottie Scheffler is favored to win a third straight The Players Championship. / David Yeazell-Imagn Images

One of the best weeks of the golf calendar is here! All the top players on the PGA Tour head to TPC Sawgrass for the Players Championship, the unofficial fifth major.

Scottie Scheffler was the first ever golfer to win the Players in back-to-back years when he captured the 2024 edition of the event. Now, he has a chance to win a third straight, but he’ll have to dial in his game more than we’ve seen so far in 2025.

Let’s take a look at the top names on the odds list this week and then I’ll break down my top four bets.

Players Championship odds

Top 15 odds to win via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Scottie Scheffler +360
• Rory McIlroy +800
• Collin Morikawa +1600
• Xander Schauffele +1600
• Ludvig Aberg +2000
• Justin Thomas +2000
• Hideki Matsuyama +3000
• Patrick Cantlay +3500
• Tommy Fleetwood +3500
• Shane Lowry +4000
• Russell Henley +4500
• Sungjae Im +5500
• Keegan Bradley +5500
• Sepp Straka +5500
• Wyndham Clark +6000

Players Championship how to watch

• Thursday: 1–7 p.m. ET (Golf Channel)
• Friday: 1–7 p.m. ET (Golf Channel)
• Saturday: 2–7 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock)
• Sunday: 1–7 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock)

Players Championship purse

• Date: Thursday, Mar. 13–Sunday, Mar. 16
• Purse: $25 million ($4.5 million to winner)
• 2024 champion: Scottie Scheffler

Players Championship notable golfers

Scottie Scheffler: He’s still the undisputed No. 1 golfer in the world, but it may be time to start wondering if we should view Scottie Scheffler as the same golfer he was last year. He’s the back-to-back winner at the Players and has posted a T11 or better finish in three of his four starts this year, but is he deserving of being a +360 favorite? I certainly don’t think so.

Russell Henley: Fresh off a win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Russell Henley is a golfer to watch this week. He consistently ranks near the top of bettors’ models every week, but has had problems closing out tournaments the past couple of years. Now that he has gotten over the hump at a big-time event, don’t be surprised if he’s in the mix again this weekend.

Players Championship best bets

Collin Morikawa +1600 (via FanDuel)

Since the Players Championship moved from May to March, TPC Sawgrass has significantly grown out the rough, making driving accuracy arguably the premier stat golfers have to thrive in if they want to win. That immediately points to Collin Morikawa as the top option among the favorites. He’s fourth on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy, finding the fairway on 72.37% of tee shots and he’s coming into this event in great form after a solo runner-up finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

He leads the Tour in strokes-gained tee to green and has posted a runner-up finish in three of his last six starts. It’s only a matter of time before he snaps his winless drought and based on how this week’s course is set up, it seems like a perfect time for Morikawa to add another big win to his resume.

Aaron Rai +9000 (via FanDuel)

If TPC Sawgrass is all about accuracy, how about Aaron Rai? The Englishman is sixth on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy and 30th in greens in regulation percentage. He’s quietly putting together a solid season. He’s coming off a T4 finish at the Mexico Open and a T11 finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

His two biggest weaknesses are driving distance and chipping, but lack of distance off the tee won’t hurt him at TPC Sawgrass and he’s coming off a tournament where he gained strokes around the greens, a great sign moving forward.

If you want a long shot bet, Rai at 90-1 is going to be your guy.

Doug Ghim Top 20 ties incl. +280 (via DraftKings)

Doug Ghim enters this week ranking fifth on the PGA Tour in strokes-gained approach. He has been one of the very best ball strikers in the world so far in 2025 and we would have heard his name quite a bit more if he could hit a putt. He has lost significant strokes on the green in every start but has still managed to post a T21 finish at the American Express and a T11 finish at the Cognizant Classic.

Now, he returns to an event he’s had success at in the past. He was in the final group on Sunday in 2022, eventually finishing T6, and also posted a T16 finish last year. As long as he can sink at least a couple of putts, he’s going to be in a great spot for a top-20 finish this week.

Alex Smalley Top 20 ties incl. +360 (via DraftKings)

Alex Smalley may be the most underrated golfer so far in 2025. He has finished T21 or better in five of his six starts and his biggest strength has been driving accuracy, which is going to prove vital this week.

After failing to capitalize on an opportunity to win the Mexico Open, I’m hesitant to back him to win this week, but a top-20 bet at a course that seems to fit his style of play seems like a great wager to make at +360 odds.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!