2026 College Basketball National Championship Odds vs. KenPom Rankings: Which Teams Have Value?

Vanderbilt could be a great value bet to win the NCAA Tournament at +7500. | Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

If you don't know KenPom by now, it is a college basketball statistical archive that attempts to use advanced metrics to rank every team in the nation. Sports bettors often use the rating system to help their handicapping process to figure out who to bet on.

Now, with the NCAA Tournament bracket in our hands, let's take a look at the latest KenPom ratings and compare them to the odds to win the National Championship to see if we can find some value on the futures board.

All odds listed in this article are via DraftKings Sportsbook

Vanderbilt +7500 (KenPom Net Rating: 12)

In my opinion, the Vanderbilt Commodores are the best dark horse bet to win the national championship. They're No. 12 in the KenPom Net Ratings, but are tied for 15th on the odds list. Vanderbilt is also coming into this tournament in great form, making it to the SEC Championship while beating the defending national champions and current No. 1 seed, the Florida Gators.

Vanderbilt is solid on both sides of the court, ranking 36th in effective field goal percentage and 95th in defensive efficiency.

Virginia +7500 (KenPom Net Rating: 13)

Virginia is listed at the same odds as Vanderbilt, +7500, but they're one spot below the Commodores in Net Rating at 13th. There's plenty of debate about just how good the ACC has been as a conference this season, but if you believe in any other team from the ACC other than Duke, it's the Virginia Cavaliers. Virginia is 54th in effective field goal percentage and 34th in defensive efficiency. They have the underlying metrics, but was their schedule tough enough to prepare them for the NCAA Tournament?

Nebraska +10000 (KenPom Net Rating: 14)

One spot below Virginia is Nebraska, with the 17th-best odds to win the National Championship, but it is No. 14 in the KenPom Net Ratings. The Cornhuskers cruised past the inferior teams they played this season, but fell short when they faced elite competition. Still, they have some impressive metrics, including ranking 17th in defensive efficiency and 30th in effective field goal percentage.

Tennessee +12000 (KenPom Net Rating: 16)

It's the same old story with the Tennessee Volunteers. They're all defense and no offense, ranking 39th in defensive efficiency and 173rd in effective field goal percentage. With that being said, if it's true that defense wins championships, then Tennessee has an outside shot.

They're listed at 120-1 to win it all, but are firmly placed as the No. 16 team in KenPom's Net Ratings.

Saint Mary's +30000 (KenPom Net Rating: 24)

Saint Mary's has historically struggled when it comes to the NCAA Tournament, but maybe it's time for a West Coast team not named Gonzaga to go on a deep run in March. The Gaels are in the top 25 in KenPom's Net Rating, but are listed at 300-1 to win the National Championship. Saint Mary's ranks 109th in effective field goal percentage, but 18th in defensive efficiency.

If you don't want to bet on the Gaels to win it all, maybe a +3500 bet on them to win the wide-open South Region is more up your alley.

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