2026 MLB Win Total Projections for Every Team (Dodgers, Yankees, Mets Lead the Way)

The familiar sounds of baseball are back. The pop of the glove. The crack of the bat. And before we know it, 2026 MLB Opening Day will be here.

To no one’s surprise, the Los Angeles Dodgers have the highest win total line at 102.5, with the Colorado Rockies nearly half of that at 53.5. It’s the two ends of the spectrum in the NL West and the entire league.

With spring training underway and games right around the corner, let’s take a look at every team’s win total projections for the 2026 MLB season.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Arizona Diamondbacks Win Total Projection

79.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

The Diamondbacks made the World Series in 2023 with 84 wins in the regular season, then missed the playoffs the next season despite going 89-73. They declined a bit last year to an 80-82 record, which makes this 79.5 line pretty accurate.

After trading some pieces at the deadline, Arizona added a few depth guys in the offseason. However, they were still downgrades. Unfortunately, I would have to take the UNDER for the Snakes in a tough NL West.

Athletics Win Total Projection

75.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

In their first season away from Oakland, the Athletics surprised some people. They won 76 games – the most since winning 86 in 2021 –, which was a seven-win increase over 2024, and 26 more than the 50 they won in 2023. However, they didn’t really do much in the offseason. Their young guys make take a step forward, but teams are going to be ready for them this year. I’ll take the UNDER for the A’s, but 70 wins is realistic.

Atlanta Braves Win Total Projection

88.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

The Braves saw their seven-year playoff streak come to an end as they finished 76-86 in an injury-riddled season in Atlanta. They only won 89 games the year prior, so I’m skeptical of them getting there again in 2026 despite adding a few depth pieces in free agency, especially in the NL East with the Phillies and Mets still competitive. It’s another UNDER for me.

Baltimore Orioles Win Total Projection

85.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

The Orioles took a huge step back last season with 75 wins after recording 91 and 101 victories in the previous two years. Pete Alonso headlined their offseason additions, but I don’t think they can get 11 more wins unless all of their young guys take a step forward, and we haven’t seen that Baltimore is willing to add during the season. I’ll keep the UNDER trend rolling.

Boston Red Sox Win Total Projection

87.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

The Red Sox made the playoffs last year for the first time since 2021 thanks to an 89-73 record in the regular season. Despite losing Alex Bregman and Lucas Giolito in free agency, the Sox may have been one of the winners of the offseason by adding the likes of Ranger Suarez and Sonny Gray in the rotation and trading for Caleb Durbin to replace the third baseman, and they have some guys ready to take a step forward.

I’ll take the OVER for the Red Sox, and 90+ wins is within reach.

Chicago Cubs Win Total Projection

87.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

The Cubs took a big step forward last year with 92 wins to finish second in the NL Central, the ousted the Padres in the Wild Card Round before losing to the Brewers in the NLDS.

Chicago lost Kyle Tucker and others in free agency, but the additions of Alex Bregman and Edward Cabrera gave the Cubs a solid offseason. I see another season around 90 wins, so give me the OVER on the Cubs.

Chicago White Sox Win Total Projection

66.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

While the Cubs are building, the White Sox are back in a rebuild. They finally traded away Luis Robert Jr. for a few pieces in the offseason, but still have the stench of last year’s 60 wins on them.

With 61, 40, and 60 wins in the last three seasons, I can’t do anything but take the UNDER on the White Sox.

Cincinnati Reds Win Total Projection

81.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Terry Francona has the Reds heading in the right direction after winning 83 games and making the playoffs last season. They’ve been around the .500 mark in the last three seasons, and the growth of Elly De La Cruz makes me want to buy into them again.

There’s just something about the Reds that makes me bullish on them this season, so give me the OVER.

Cleveland Guardians Win Total Projection

79.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Stephen Vogt has won back-to-back AL Manager of the Year Awards, and he has his work cut out for him again this season. This total of 79.5 is a bit low to me, though, as the Guardians have won the NL Central in two straight seasons and three of their last four.

Jose Ramirez is locked in for the foreseeable future, and so am I on the OVER here on the Guardians.

Colorado Rockies Win Total Projection

53.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

No one really knows what the Rockies are doing. Since winning 91 games in 2018, they haven’t finished with more than 74 wins in a season. They bottomed out at 43 wins last year, and while I can’t see any offseason moves that improved them by 11 wins, some things have to go their way this season, right? 43 wins had to be an anomaly, even for Colorado.

I’ll reluctantly take the OVER on the Rockies.

Detroit Tigers Win Total Projection

85.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

The Tigers are another team that I’m higher than the market on. They proved themselves as legit threats last year, winning 87 games after getting 86 victories the year prior.

Detroit added to its already stacked rotation with Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander in the offseason, and bolstered the bullpen with Kenley Jansen. Give me the OVER with 90+ wins as a possibility.

Houston Astros Win Total Projection

86.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

The Astros may finally be on the decline. Since winning the 2022 World Series, they had 90 wins in 2023, 88 wins in 2024, and 87 wins last year. They lost Valdez in the offseason as the pieces continue to fall off from their championship teams.

I’ll fade the Astros and take the UNDER in Houston.

Kansas City Royals Win Total Projection

81.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

The Royals got back over .500 in the last two seasons after eight straight years at .500 or worse. They did barely get there with 82 wins last year, though, and didn’t have a great offseason.

Given that I like a few other teams in the AL Central, I’ll have to take the UNDER on the Royals, especially at even money.

Los Angeles Angels Win Total Projection

70.5 (Over +100/Under -120)

The Angels love to make a lot of offseason moves that are ultimately inconsequential. Maybe Grayson Rodriguez can find something in Los Angeles, and the same goes for Josh Lowe in the outfield. But is that enough to stay afloat with last year’s 72 wins?

I do think the Angels will be within a win or two of this number, so I’ll be optimistic and lean to the OVER.

Los Angeles Dodgers Win Total Projection

102.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

The Dodgers haven’t exactly been a truly dominant team in the regular season in recent years. Since winning 111 games in 2022, they’ve declined (in the regular season) every year to 100, 98, and then 93 wins last season.

Los Angeles has made its plan known, and that doesn’t involve trying a whole lot in the regular season in terms of pitchers coming back from injuries. Maybe adding Kyle Tucker and Edwin Diaz without losing any key pieces can do it, but I have to stick with the UNDER trend.

Miami Marlins Win Total Projection

72.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

The Marlins took a big step back in 2024 with just 62 wins after making the playoffs the previous season, and they got back up to 79 wins last year. However, their record was better than it should’ve been given their awful -89 run differential.

Perhaps the Marlins could be a fun team in a different division, but they’ll get beaten up on by the Phillies, Mets, and Braves, which will help our UNDER pick.

Milwaukee Brewers Win Total Projection

84.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

When you look back at the 2025 MLB season, you probably won’t remember that the Brewers had the league’s best record at 97-65. However, after trading away Freddy Peralta and Caleb Durbin, they head into 2026 with their win total down at 84.5.

I don’t think the Brewers will fall quite that far as they still have Brandon Woodruff and youngster Jacob Misiorowski in the rotation, and a steady enough lineup. Give me the OVER in Milwaukee, as the Brewers have had at least 86 wins in every full season since 2017.

Minnesota Twins Win Total Projection

73.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

The injury to Pablo Lopez is really going to hurt the Twins’ chances. They only had 70 wins last year after 82 and 87 in the previous two seasons.

Minnesota still has some talent, but I have to fade the Twins and take the UNDER after an inactive offseason amid front office changes.

New York Mets Win Total Projection

90.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

The Mets are trying to keep up with their cross-city rivals as well as the Phillies and Braves in the NL East. They haven’t cracked 90 wins since winning 101 games in 2022, but did get 89 victories two years ago and 83 wins last year.

They made some late moves to add the likes of Freddy Peralta, Bo Bichette, and Luis Robert Jr., but I still have to take the UNDER on the Mets.

New York Yankees Win Total Projection

90.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

The Yankees are starting to feel some heat in the AL East, but they still won 94 games for the second straight season despite finishing second in the division.

However, New York only re-signed a few players while losing Devin Williams and Luke Weaver. I’m not sure if that drops them four wins, though, so I have to lean to the OVER.

Philadelphia Phillies Win Total Projection

89.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

The Phillies are more or less running it back again. Adolis Garcia replaces Nick Castellanos and Harrison Bader as an outfield bat, and they’re hoping for some in-house replacements for Ranger Suarez and Matt Strahm.

Re-signing Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto were the big moves, though, and Philadelphia should be able to get at least 90 wins for the fourth straight season. Give me the OVER.

Pittsburgh Pirates Win Total Projection

78.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

The Pirates haven’t won more than 76 games since winning 82 games back in 2018. They did make some good moves in the offseason to bring in some bats, so Paul Skenes may finally get some support this season.

I still don’t see the Pirates getting close to .500, though, so give me the UNDER.

San Diego Padres Win Total Projection

85.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

The Padres saw Dylan Cease, Robert Suarez, Luis Arraez, and Ryan O’Hearn all leave in the offseason, which are some key departures for San Diego. The Friars have won 89 or more games in two straight seasons and three of the last four, though, and still have a formidable lineup.

I’ll take the OVER as the Padres don’t have the luxury of letting up in the regular season like the Dodgers do.

Seattle Mariners Win Total Projection

89.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

The Mariners are once again favorites in the AL West after winning 90 games last season. However, they may be due for a bit of a letdown season after deadline additions helped them last year.

I still think Seattle is a dangerous team and will make the playoffs, but I will take the UNDER at +100.

San Francisco Giants Win Total Projection

80.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

The Giants are as mediocre as they come in recent seasons. Since winning 107 games in 2021, they won 81, 79, 80, and 81 games in the last four years.

San Francisco did what they had to do in the offseason, but none of its moves was particularly exciting. I have a slight lean to the OVER here.

St. Louis Cardinals Win Total Projection

69.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

The Cardinals are rebuilding, but they still won 78 games last season and haven’t won fewer than 70 games in a full season since 1978. They were trending that way in 1994 and 1995, but didn’t play the full 162 games.

You can’t just look at history, but this is a decent young team and is still a proud franchise that will get OVER their win total here.

Tampa Bay Rays Win Total Projection

77.5 (Over +100/Under -120)

The Rays are a team that always seems to play better than expected. They finished with 77 wins last season, which was their lowest total in a full season since 2016.

Tampa Bay traded away Shane Baz and Josh Lowe for prospects, but also made some additions to the major-league roster. Given the Rays’ track record, I have to take the OVER at even money.

Texas Rangers Win Total Projection

83.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

The Rangers haven’t been the same team since winning 90 regular-season games and the World Series in 2023. They took a big step back in 2024 with 78 wins before finishing at .500 last year.

Texas is now a top-heavy team that is relying on Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, and MacKenzie Gore in the rotation. I’ll fade that and take the UNDER.

Toronto Blue Jays Win Total Projection

88.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

The Blue Jays are looking to prove that last year’s improvement from 74 wins to 94 in the regular season and, more importantly, their World Series appearance wasn’t a fluke. They lost Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer, but replaced them with Dylan Cease in the rotation.

I’m not too confident either way in Toronto, but will lean to the OVER for the Jays.

Washington Nationals Win Total Projection

65.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Last, and not quite least, is the Nationals. Since winning the 2019 World Series, Washington hasn’t finished over 71 wins, but also won at least 66 games in each of the last three seasons.

Given the firepower in the NL East, I have to take the UNDER here.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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