2026 NFL Draft Odds: Fernando Mendoza Enters Combine as Heavy Favorite to Go No. 1

Welcome to NFL combine week! Yes, the Super Bowl felt like it was just yesterday, but as we all know by now, the NFL never rests.

All the prospects for April's NFL Draft are getting ready to show their stuff to prove they're worthy of selection. That makes this the perfect time to take a look at the latest odds to be the No. 1 overall pick by the Las Vegas Raiders.

To no one's surprise, the Heisman Trophy winner and national champion, Fernando Mendoza, is the overwhelming favorite.

2026 NFL Draft No. 1 Pick Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Fernando Mendoza -20000
Rueben Bain Jr. +8000
David Bailey +8000
Arvell Reese +8000
Ty Simpson +10000

Mendoza is set as the -20000 favorite to be selected with the top picks, which is a 99.5% implied probability. It makes too much sense, as the Raiders are desperate to find their quarterback of the future, and Mendoza is the obvious option. There could be an argument to be made if Dante Moore for Trinidad Chambliss entered the draft, but both opted to return to school for another year. That leaves Mendoza as the only reasonable option to be the top quarterback selected.

If something crazy happens and the Raiders decide to pick a different quarterback, Ty Simpson is the only name that is conceivable. He's set at 100-1 to be the top overall pick, but at this point of the year, no analyst is giving the Alabama quarterback a realistic chance to be selected with the top pick.

If the Raiders trade their pick to a team that doesn't need a quarterback, or if they decide to draft a defensive player instead, three names could be the top pick. Rueben Bain Jr., the defensive end from Miami, David Bailey, the linebacker from Texas Tech, and Arvell Reese, the linebacker from Ohio State, are all second on the odds list to be the No. 1 pick at 80-1.

Plenty of things can, and will, change between now and the NFL Draft, but we can feel confident that the Indiana Hoosier, coming off a dream season, will be the No. 1 pick.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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