3 Best Players to Bet to Win NFL MVP in 2024 Season (Why It's Fine to Bet Patrick Mahomes as MVP Favorite)

NFL MVP always centers around the quarterbacks and becomes an incredibly heated argument.

Last season, Lamar Jackson prevailed as the Baltimore Ravens put together the best record in the NFL, but is it time for Patrick Mahomes to return to the top of the league and win his third MVP? The Kansas City Chiefs are set to make a run at a third straight Super Bowl, and a revamped offense may do the trick for Mahomes to make good on being the preseason betting favorite.

Here's how I view the NFL MVP betting market and my favorite bets ahead of the season, including why I'm fine laying it with Patrick Mahomes as a favorite, as well as two valuable bets further down the board.

NFL MVP Odds

Patrick Mahomes: +500
Josh Allen: +800
C.J. Stroud: +1000
Joe Burrow: +1000
Jordan Love: +1400
Lamar Jackson: +1500
Jalen Hurts: +1600
Brock Purdy: +1600
Tua Tagovailoa: +2000
Dak Prescott: +2000
Justin Herbert: +2000
Jared Goff: +2500
Aaron Rodgers: +2500
Matthew Stafford: +3000
Kirk Cousins: +3000
Trevor Lawrence: +3000
Anthony Richardson: +3400
Kyler Murray: +5000
Christian McCaffrey: +5000
Caleb Williams: +5000

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Best Bets for NFL MVP

Patrick Mahomes: +500
Jalen Hurts: +1600
Kyler Murray: +5000

Patrick Mahomes

Lame, I know.

But, I think Patrick Mahomes is rightfully the favorite to win NFL MVP, and I believe that there can be a coronation of sorts this season for Mahomes, the two-time MVP winner.

As the Chiefs gun for a third straight Super Bowl, the team may be sitting on a big performance with a revamped offense that floundered last season in the team’s Super Bowl run. The Chiefs added the likes of Xavier Worthy in the first round of the NFL Draft and are expected to bounce back after a down year relative to expectations for Mahomes-led offenses.

Kansas City is the overwhelming favorite to win the AFC West, so winning likely won’t be an issue, and if the Chiefs are able to return to form on offense, it’s likely that it resembles the type of unit that helped Mahomes win his second award in 2022.

It’s boring because he’s the favorite, but Mahomes is the favorite for a reason, and there’s a path where he runs away with it if KC puts together a strong 2024 season that lacks the perceived drama of a failing offense like last season. The media loves Mahomes, the best quarterback in the league. If there isn't a glaring knock on him, then he's correctly the favorite, and arguably the best bet on the award.

Jalen Hurts

Hurts was the betting favorite at different points the last two seasons, but injuries and some untimely poor play derailed his ability to win.

Priced as the (tied) seventh choice in the market, I think the Eagles quarterback is being quite underrated.

He has been able to rack up touchdowns with his ability to score from in close, even if that slows down this season due to the retirement of Jason Kelce and last season’s injuries, for gaudy numbers. As well, he will be leading arguably the most talented team in the NFC in the Eagles that refurbished its secondary in the draft and added running back Saquon Barkley in free agency.

The reason why Hurts is priced behind the likes of Jordan Love is due to narrative. The Eagles flamed out last season after a stellar start that featured a 10-1 beginning of the season. However, with a new offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore, the team may be just as good as last season, if not similar to the Super Bowl runner up team from 2022.

If Hurts plays to expectation, he will surely be in the MVP conversation until the end of the season. He is mispriced based on how we last saw Philadelphia, not with how this season will go.

Kyler Murray

Finding a long shot to take at MVP is tricky as I think the win equity is correctly priced at the top, but I’ll take a stab at Murray.

I think the Cardinals have a ton of upside in 2024 especially after showing out down the stretch of the season with Murray back under center.

Cardinals were a top-10 offense in EPA per play, yards per play and TD drive % with Kyler Murray under center in Weeks 10-18 last season pic.twitter.com/RIJdJWqdVx
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) February 19, 2024

So, the Cardinals offense may be elite in 2024 as the unit added top five pick Marvin Harrison Jr. to be the No. 1 wide receiver for a fully healthy Murray.

Murray showed little limitations after coming back from ACL surgery, and if he can have this offense performing at a high level, can the team surprise in 2024?

With the San Francisco 49ers going through some roster turmoil in different places, the Los Angeles Rams continuing to age, and the Seattle Seahawks possibly trending down, can the Cardinals be this season's Houston Texans, going from worst to first in the division?

If that's the case, Murray will surely get some MVP consideration as a long shot bet.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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