AFC South Division Odds and Preview for 2025 Season (Texans Enter Season as Favorite)

No division in football has better embodied the term “up for grabs” than the AFC South over the past half-decade. Since 2020, all four teams have cycled through a losing season, a franchise quarterback reset, or both — sometimes simultaneously. But 2025 offers a more layered picture: Houston is now the hunted after two straight playoff wins, while the rest of the division has either hit rock bottom or is still searching for stability. With three new starting quarterbacks and two new head coaches, this race is less about firepower and more about who can grow up the fastest.

With C.J. Stroud already a top-10 quarterback and DeMeco Ryans leading the Texans to the playoffs in both his years as head coach, Houston has become the class of this feeble division. The Texans won 11 games last season and cruised through the AFC South with a 5-1 record. Replicating intra-division dominance is far from guaranteed as their rivals reset, and at just +110 to win it, the price doesn’t offer much upside. Still, in a division built on chaos, Houston is the only team offering any kind of certainty.

In comes Liam Coen as the new Jags head coach from Tampa Bay’s staff, inheriting a team that spent big in free agency and drafted Heisman winner Travis Hunter No. 2 overall — a rare two-way talent expected to see the field on both offense and defense. Jacksonville’s win total is depressed by a brutal early schedule but there may be buying value after Week 6 if you’re bullish. Longshots in the AFC South are never truly out of it — especially when nine wins might get it done.

The Colts somehow, someway hung around the playoff hunt longer than they should have last year when they had absolutely no business there. But Shane Steichen has now posted back-to-back second-place finishes in the division. The biggest issue is that Indy’s quarterback situation — now led by Daniel Jones — as it leaves much to be desired. There’s a low ceiling and a low floor here, and not much separating the two. You can squint and see a path to overtaking the division, but proceed with caution.

The Titans’ freefall hit bottom last season with a 3-14 record, their worst since 2014, but books aren’t expecting much better in 2025. Hope arrives in the form of Cam Ward, the No. 1 overall pick and a big-armed playmaker from Miami.

Rookie struggles are baked into the price, yet Tennessee’s soft opening stretch offers a clear path to early relevance if Ward can hit the ground running. From coaching staff to quarterback, everything’s new — but that’s a welcome change for a franchise desperate for some forward momentum. My thoughts? If you really believe in Ward before he takes an NFL snap, buy low on Tennessee.

AFC South 2025 Division Title Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Houston Texans: +110
Jacksonville Jaguars: +300
Indianapolis Colts: +320
Tennessee Titans: +700

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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