AFC West Division Odds and Preview for 2025 Season (Will Chiefs Win Again?)

Despite a new wave of high-profile coaching hires and promising young quarterbacks across the AFC West, I'm afraid the Chiefs still set an unreachable bar. They've now won nine consecutive division crowns and reached seven straight AFC title games. The Chiefs have seen some turnover through their dynasty, but as long as Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are, hope may be all that the other three teams have to usurp them.

Kansas City went a preposterous 12-0 in one-score games last season, including a narrow AFC Championship win over Buffalo, yet skeptics expecting regression might be in for disappointment. Their projected win total in 2025 is still comfortably ahead of the pack, two games clear of the Broncos and Chargers, and four above the Raiders. Yes, the schedule is tough — seventh-hardest in the NFL — but the Chiefs have won the AFC West by at least three games in five of the past six seasons. Until further notice, I don’t see things changing.

Oddsmakers’ boost in Denver’s projection took me by surprise as they are at +280 and second-shortest in the division. Bo Nix helped snap a nine-year playoff drought and showed flashes of future stardom before things unraveled in a lopsided Wild Card loss to Buffalo. The biggest question in Denver this year is whether Nix can avoid the second-year dip he suffered in college. The defense remains tough and this team’s greatest asset, and Nix is still on his rookie deal, giving Denver a narrow window. But betting on a leap forward while sharing a division with Mahomes and Harbaugh? There’s really little value here, especially with a win total that matches Los Angeles.

Jim Harbaugh’s first season in Los Angeles was an unqualified success: an 11-win campaign that restored relevance and toughness to a franchise long known for underachievement. And yet, even with that improvement, the Chargers still finished four games behind the Chiefs.

Harbaugh’s track record suggests the team won’t take a step back — he’s never posted a losing NFL season and has averaged 11 wins despite shorter schedules in the past. Even so, Los Angeles is likely still playing for a Wild Card spot again — and at only +330, the upside just doesn’t justify the risk.

Las Vegas is rebuilding — again — but this time with structure. New general manager John Spytek and new head coach Pete Carroll bring credibility, and Chip Kelly’s arrival as offensive coordinator adds intrigue.

The offense has talent: Geno Smith, top rookie Ashton Jeanty in the backfield and star tight end Brock Bowers give this team some pop. But talent doesn’t always translate into wins, especially in a division this loaded. Carroll’s history also suggests no early overperformance. With three playoff-caliber teams ahead of them, expecting the Raiders to end a 23-year division title drought is just wishful thinking at best.

AFC West 2025 Division Title Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Kansas City Chiefs: -110
Denver Broncos: +280
Los Angeles Chargers: +330
Las Vegas Raiders: +1200

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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