Alcorn State vs. Alabama State Prediction, Odds for SWAC Tournament 1st Round

Monday’s college basketball action gets underway with a first-round matchup in the SWAC Tournament between the No. 11-seeded Alcorn State Braves and the No. 10-seeded Alabama State Hornets.

Both of these teams finished well under .500 in the regular season, but they’ll have a standalone game on Monday with a chance to advance to the second round of the tournament on Tuesday.

Alabama State won the lone regular-season meeting between these teams by 15 points, and oddsmakers have set the Hornets as 6.5-point favorites on Monday.

However, Alcorn State closed out the regular season pretty strong, winning four of its final eight games to match the Hornets’ record in conference play (both teams were 7-11).

Can the Braves pull off an upset and advance to Tuesday’s second-round action?

Here’s a look at the betting odds, a player to watch and my prediction as the madness of conference tournament season is upon us.

Alcorn State vs. Alabama State Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Alcorn State +6.5 (-110)
Alabama State -6.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Alcorn State: +225
Alabama State: -278

Total

141.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Alcorn State vs. Alabama State How to Watch

Date: Monday, March 9
Time: 2:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Gateway Center
How to Watch (TV): ESPN+
Alcorn State record: 8-22
Alabama State record: 10-21

Alcorn State vs. Alabama State Key Player to Watch

Asjon Anderson, Guard, Alabama State

Senior guard Asjon Anderson leads the Hornets in points per game (14.5) this season while shooting 35.0 percent from the field and 31.0 percent from 3. He has not been very efficient, but Anderson did score 23 points in his lone meeting with the Braves this season.

Alabama State relied heavily on Anderson early on in the campaign, but his minutes have come down as of late. He hasn’t played more than 22 minutes in a game since Jan. 24, and he’s recently come off the bench.

However, Anderson is a player to watch because he can score the ball at a high rate when he’s on, making him an X-Factor in this game for Alabama State off the pine. Alcorn State is just 328th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, so this could be just what Anderson needs to get back on track.

Alcorn State vs. Alabama State Prediction and Pick

Both of these teams have struggled on the offensive end in the 2025-26 season, which is why I’m targeting the total in the first-round battle in the SWAC Tournament.

Alcorn State is the No. 351 team in KenPom this season, ranking 349th in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Braves are also 314th in effective field goal percentage and have struggled turning the ball over all season long (342nd in turnover rate).

So, it’s going to be tough to trust this offense – which scored just 66 points against Alabama State earlier this season – to put up a 70-plus points on Monday. In fact, Alcorn State is averaging just 66.9 points per game this season and has failed to crack 70 points in three games in a row.

Meanwhile, Alabama State has hit the UNDER 17 times this season while ranking 325th in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Hornets are actually a worse shooting team (330th in effective field goal percentage) than the Braves and are 294th in turnover rate.

Alabama State does force a lot of turnovers (54th in opponent turnover rate) which should help it get some easy baskets in this game. Still, I’m not buying the Hornets’ offense, which has put up just over 73 points per game this season.

These teams did clear this total in their first meeting, but Alabama State has lost four of five, scoring 71 or fewer points in every loss. I’ll fade both of these poor shooting teams in an afternoon tilt.

Pick: UNDER 141.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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