American Express Picks, Props and Predictions: Betting Si Woo Kim, Matt Fitzpatrick And Longshots

Scottie Scheffler makes his 2026 debut and is a massive betting favorite at the American Express. No one on the SI Golf betting panel is picking him!

The SI Golf Betting panel features SI Betting insider Iain MacMillan, Inside Sports Network Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner, Betting analyst Brad Thomas, The Model Maniac Byron Lindeque, FanSided content director Cody Williams and Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra. Each Wednesday, we post our betting picks for outright and longshot winners, first-round leader, our favorite prop bet and a final score prediction.

Our first week was highlighted by Iain and Byron hitting their prop bet (Nick Taylor Top 20 +145) at the Sony Open. The rest of us are looking for stronger performances after failing to hit a bet for the panel.

The American Express is a unique tournament because it’s played on three different courses with a 54-hole cut. Plenty of longshots have won this tournament in the past, using this as a jumping off point to bolster their career. It’s also a low-scoring event, with the average winning score being 27-under the last three years.

Shots Gained: Putting is an important metric to consider when picking a winner at this tournament, but approach, especially with wedges, is also critical. Birdies, as mentioned, should be flowing.

First-round leader odds were not out by Tuesday night, so we had to punt on that for now. We will update this story with our FRL picks before Thursday’s round, if possible. For now, check out our outright picks and props for the event.

AmEx Betting Picks. | Sports Illustrated

Outright

Iain MacMillan: Si Woo Kim +3500 (DraftKings)

My strategy this week is to bet on golfers who showed good form at last week’s Sony Open, and stay away from those who are making their 2026 debut. Si Woo Kim led the field in strokes-gained tee to green in Hawai’i, posting a T11 finish. Now, he returns to an event he won back in 2021. He checks all the boxes I’m looking for in an outright bet at PGA West.

Brian Kirschner: JT Poston +7500 (FanDuel)

Poston has shown that he can win at many different types of courses throughout his career and I think that the AmEx would be a great spot for his fourth PGA Tour win. JT has played great here during his career due to his great wedge play and putting. He has finished top 25 in his last four trips with a T4 in 2023.

Brad Thomas: Si Woo Kim +3500 (DraftKings)

Si Woo Kim had one of the most dreadful starts to his week at the Sony Open, standing on the 9th tee at four over par. He rallied by playing his final 10 holes five under and clawed his way back into the tournament. Those birdie runs are exactly what make Si Woo Kim dangerous in a birdie fest. His ball striking is world-class, and he can go low with the best of them. Having won here already, he’s demonstrated that he can win at a tournament that demands scores of -20 or better.

Byron Lindeque: Patrick Rodgers +8500 (Bet365)

Scottie Scheffler finished no worse than T8 in his last sixteen (16!) tournaments. Patrick Rodgers has played in 313 PGA events and for the first time in 12 years Rodgers has strung together back-to-back top 10s (T3 Sony, T7 RSM). He also finished T6 in Mexico only four starts ago and now has three top 7 finishes in his last four starts with a blustery Bermuda MC not concerning me at all. Watching him miss numerous putts by a dimple on Sunday, heading to a putter intensive venue he putted way better than his Sony stats would suggest, and it would be very fitting for him to win in California, where he played some incredible collegiate golf as a Stanford Cardinal.

Cody Williams: Alex Noren +5500 (DraftKings)

Can I interest anyone in a player who is: 19th in SG: Approach, second in SG: Putting, and third in Birdie or Better Gained Percentage over the last 36 rounds? If I can, then you’re going to love Alex Noren this week at PGA West. The 43-year-old is playing the exact right type of game to take advantage of easy scoring conditions this week, and has found some success here in the past as well.

Brian Giuffra: Matt Fitzpatrick +4000 (DraftKings)

Fitzpatrick has enjoyed a renaissance offseason highlighted by beating Rory McIlroy in a playoff at the DP World Championship. He had three other Top 10 finishes on the DP World Tour and was 2-1-1 at the Ryder Cup. This is his first time playing this event, but I just feel like big things are in store for him this year. He hasn’t won on the PGA Tour since 2023. I think that streak ends early this season and possibly this week.

Longshot

Iain MacMillan: Patrick Rodgers +8500 (Bet365)

Patrick Rodgers is fresh off a solo third finish at last week’s Sony Open, and has now posted a T7 or better in three of his last four starts. The American Express has been described as a putting contest by Tour members in the past, which is good news for Rodgers, who gained over a stroke per round on the greens last week.

Brian Kirschner: Max Greyserman +8000 (DraftKings)

Greyserman has shown high-end finishing ability with five runner-up finishes on the PGA Tour in his short career. I think this is the week he breaks through for his maiden victory. Greyserman finished T7 here last year, recording one of his best iron weeks of his entire career. He has never shined away from going low, as he lost in a playoff this summer at Rocket at -22.

Brad Thomas: Kevin Yu +10000 (FanDuel)

I’m either being cheeky here, or Kevin Yu is going to miss the cut, and everyone will laugh in my face. But at +10000, I’m looking for a golfer who can spike at any moment and give me a real chance heading into Sunday, and Yu fits that mold. When you look at his profile, the upside is obvious. He has plenty of quality in the bag, especially in tournaments where scoring is mandatory. If Yu rolls a hot putter early and rides it through the weekend, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in contention.

Byron Lindeque: Ryan Gerrard +6500 (DraftKings)

A ball striker of elite magnitude who is almost as equal a bad putter. He will be making his second start at the AmEx after a maiden T51 last year. He finished second at the Mauritius Open on the DPWT, the final finish in 2025 that locked up a Masters invite! He then followed that up with a chance to force a playoff at the Sony but came up just short on the 72nd hole, placing second for the second time in two starts. At the Sony, he lost -2.4 strokes putting in R1 but gained +3.6 SG:P in his next three rounds. He was fourth in iron play last week and something about this line is fishy since you can sniff another win looming for the '25 Barracuda Champion!

Cody Williams: Sami Valimaki +14000 (DraftKings)

If Sami Valimaki wins this week, I have no doubt it’s going to be a rollercoaster – that’s just kind of the deal with the Finnish up-and-comer. At the same time, he’s been better than everyone in the field, Scottie Scheffler included, in SG: Approach over the last 36 rounds, and is Top 15 in SG: Putting as well. In a birdie fest where the winning score is going to be wildly low, I’ll take an ultra longshot on Valimaki.

Brian Giuffra: Jacob Bridgeman +10000 (DraftKings)

Bridgeman was T4 last week at the Sony, gaining shots across the board. He has success at low-scoring events like this, and was T21 here last year. An elite putter and one of the absolute mules on the PGA Tour last year (30 events played), this could be a breakthrough tournament for him, as it has been for so many in the past. FYI: There’s a wide discrepancy on Bridgeman’s odds at DK vs FD (+7000), so make sure you bet on the right book.

Prop Bet

Iain MacMillan: Sudarshan Yellamaraju Top Canadian +750 (DraftKings)

There has been a lot of whispers going around about the latest PGA Tour member from Canada, Sudarshan Yellamaraju. He’s been described as a grinder who has significantly improved his game over the past year. He proved he can compete at the PGA Tour level last week when he posted a T13 finish at the Sony Open. It may be time to invest in Yellamaraju before the betting market starts to catch on.

Brian Kirschner: Harry Hall Top 20 incl. ties +165 (DraftKings)

I am not sold on the winning ability of Harry Hall just yet, however his top 20 rate is undeniable. His worst finish in his last six PGA Tour starts is T22. I am not going to reinvent the wheel here. Just going to bet a top 20 on a golfer that has consistently shown he can get there throughout his career.

Brad Thomas: Patrick Cantlay Top 20 incl. ties +110 (FanDuel)

Ball striking and course history, what more do you want at The American Express? Patrick Cantlay profiles as one of the better Top 20 options on the board, especially when you can grab him at plus money. Cantlay has finished inside the Top 20 in four of his seven starts at this event. Even with a mixed season by his standards last year, the overall game is still strong. He remains one of the best ball-strikers in the field. It also helps that he’s had a ton of success in shootouts.

Byron Lindeque: JT Poston Top 20 incl. ties +250 (FanDuel)

I have a tool that tells you how much you would have made on a specific golfer, in a specific market, betting to win $100 each time. THE best bet you could have made at the AmEx in the last six years is a JT Poston Top 20 ($221). He has cashed a trio of top 20s for $300 at odds of +200, +150 and +220 with a T25, MC and T35 losing T20 bettors -$79. Attempting to Top 20 for a fourth consecutive AmEx, we have stamped our name on a +250 ticket that pays ties out in full. If you want your heart ripped out by dead heats bi-monthly, you can ride that +320 (FD) into the La Quinta sunset without ever looking back.

Cody Williams: Sami Valimanki Top 40 incl. ties +140 (BetMGM)

Okay, so maybe 140/1 for Valimaki to win is a bit too aggressive for your liking. The good news is I can still get you plus odds for him to finish inside the Top 40 this week. When you talk about a player who is striking the ball as well as Valimaki and isn’t giving it away on the greens, that’s an enticing bit of upside that could get us on the board with a cashed bet this week.

Brian Giuffra: Min Woo Lee Top 20 incl. ties +220 (FanDuel)

After a disappointing run following his Houston Open win last year, I feel like Min Woo Lee is primed for a strong season. He had two Top 5 finishes, a T11 and a T14 this offseason (plus a missed cut). He was T21 in his only previous AmEx start. A generally solid putter who likes to move the ball, which is great on courses like these, I feel confident he cooks a bit this week.

Winning Score

Iain MacMillan: -27
Brian Kirschner: -24
Brad Thomas: -26
Byron Lindeque: -27
Cody Williams: -28
Brian Giuffra: -25