Appalachian State vs. Texas State Prediction, Odds for College Basketball on Friday, Feb. 27

I don't know if I've ever seen a conference with standings this close heading into the final games of the season. Just one game separates the top seven teams in the Sun Belt Conference. Four teams are tied for first at 11-6, and three more teams are one game behind them at 10-7. In total, 13 of the 14 teams in the conference are within five games of the lead.

That makes tonight's game between the 11-6 App State Mountaineers and the 18-12 Texas State Bobcats a big one. Let's dive into it.

App State vs. Texas State Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

App State -1.5 (-104)
Texas State +1.5 (-118)

Moneyline

App State -118
Texas State -102

Total

OVER 134.5 (-115)
UNDER 134.5 (-105)

App State vs. Texas State How to Watch

Date: Friday, February 27
Game Time: 8:00 pm ET
Venue: Strahan Arena at the University Events Center
How to Watch (TV): ESPN+
App State Record: 19-11 (11-6 in Sun Belt)
Texas State Record: 18-12 (10-7 in Sun Belt)

App State vs. Texas State Betting Trends

App State is 13-7 ATS in its last 20 games
The UNDER is 6-3 in App State's last nine games
Texas State is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games
Texas State has won eight straight home games

App State vs. Texas State Key Player to Watch

DJ Hall, F - Texas State Bobcats

DJ Hall is leading Texas State in both points per game (15.4) and rebounds per game (7.4), which makes him the most important player on the court for the Bobcats. He's been on fire of late, scoring 18+ points in four straight games and 21+ points in three of them. Let's see if he can have another strong performance tonight.

App State vs. Texas State Prediction and Pick

The overall shooting and defensive numbers between these two teams are extremely similar. They rank 222nd and 239th in effective field goal percentage, as well as 70th and 127th in defensive efficiency.

Where App State has the advantage is in the style of play between these two teams. App State is primarily a three-point shooting team, but Texas State has struggled to defend the perimeter all season, ranking 323rd in opponent three-point field goal percentage, allowing teams to shoot 36.6% from beyond the arc.

Meanwhile, Texas State has the second-highest two-point shot rate in college basketball, but App State is one of the best interior defensive teams in the country, ranking 21st in opponent two-point field goal percentage, keeping teams to shooting 46.7% from two-point range.

That's enough for me to back App State.

Pick: App State -1.5 (-104)

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