Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview: Picks, Predictions, Odds for Bay Hill

The PGA Tour is ready for its third signature event in four weeks when it heads to Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The No. 1-ranked golfer in the world and two-time winner, Scottie Scheffler, is back in action this week as he tries to figure out why he continues to get off to bad starts. An uncharacteristically bad Thursday round has cost him the win in three straight tournaments. Can he figure it out this week, or is there someone else we should look to bet on?

Let’s find out what the oddsmakers think.

Arnold Palmer Invitational odds

Top 15 odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Scottie Scheffler +340
Rory McIlroy +1000
Tommy Fleetwood +1900
Matt Fitzpatrick +2500
Collin Morikawa +2500
Xander Schauffele +2500
Russell Henley +2700
Hideki Matsuyama +3000
Si Woo Kim +3000
Cameron Young +3300
Patrick Cantlay +3500
Robert MacIntyre +3500
Ludvig Aberg +4000
Ben Griffin +4000
Jake Knapp +4000

Arnold Palmer Invitational how to watch

Thursday: 2–6 p.m. ET (Golf Channel)
Friday: 2–6 p.m. ET (Golf Channel)
Saturday: 12:30–2:30 p.m. ET (Golf Channel), 2:30–6 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock)
Sunday: 12:30–2:30 p.m. ET (Golf Channel), 2:30–6 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock)

Arnold Palmer Invitational purse

Date: Thursday, Mar. 5–Sunday, Mar. 8
Purse: $20 million ($4 million to winner)
2025 champion: Russell Henley

Arnold Palmer Invitational best bets

Matt Fitzpatrick +2600 (DraftKings)

Matt Fitzpatrick has been one of the best golfers on the PGA Tour this season, but we’re still waiting for him truly contend. I think there’s a great chance that finally happens this week.

He’s leading the Tour in ball striking heading into this week, and he ranks 12th in par-5 scoring, which is crucial at Bay Hill. He also has a strong history in this course, posting four straight top-10 finishes from 2019 to 2022, including a runner-up in 2019. Now that he’s been playing some of the best golf he’s played over the past two seasons, he’s poised to once again be in contention to get a win at Arnold Palmer’s tournament.

Jake Knapp +4000 (FanDuel)

Until Jake Knapp’s level of play falls off, or the betting market adjusts to how he should be priced, I’m going to continue to bet on him whenever he competes. He’s second on the PGA Tour in scoring average, third in total strokes gained, and he's leading all golfers in par-5 scoring average at 4.17. To win at Bay Hill, golfers have to take advantage of the scoreable par-5s, and no one has the ability to do that better than Knapp.

The only argument against Knapp is his lack of experience at this event, playing here only once in 2024, which resulted in a T57 finish, but I can’t look past how well he's played lately, especially at 40-1. He has finished in the top 11 in all five of his starts this season.

Alex Noren +8500 (Bet365)

If the winds pick up this week, Alex Noren could end up being a great bet. He’s one of the best scramblers on the PGA Tour, and he’s fourth in the field in strokes-gained putting over the past three months and ninth in strokes-gained around the green. He’s also coming off a T12 finish at the Genesis Invitational, and let’s not forget he won twice on the DP World Tour during the fall swing and then finished as the solo runner-up at the Hero World Challenge in December.

He's worth a look this week at 85-1.

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