Arnold Palmer Invitational Live Odds and Prediction: Collin Morikawa is Poised to Win at Bay Hill

The Arnold Palmer Invitational has lived up to its hype so far this week and we're in for an exciting final round at Bay Hill on Sunday.

Collin Morikawa holds a one-stroke lead heading into the fourth round of the tournament. Russell Henley is one stroke behind him, Corey Conners is two back at solo third, and Jason Day is three back in solo fourth. Unless we see some carnage today, which is possible but not probable, the winner is likely to come from that group of four.

So, who will it be? Let's take a look at what the oddsmakers think and then I'll give my take.

Arnold Palmer Invitational live odds ahead of final round

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Collin Morikawa +100
Russell Henley +280
Corey Conners +650
Jason Day +1100
Tony Finau +3500
Michael Kim +4500
Rory McIlroy +5500
Shane Lowry +6000
Scottie Scheffler +8000

Who Will Win the Arnold Palmer Invitational?

I don't typically like to give out the favorite as a live bet heading into the final round, but it's warranted in this situation. +100 odds for Collin Morikawa implied a 50% chance he closes the deal today, but I think the probability is slightly higher.

His ball-striking numbers and improved putting this season already made him a great option this week, but he has further proven that he's the main to beat in this field. He has gained an average of +1.87 strokes with his approach play per round so far, and he's coming off his best round of the tournament where he gained an eye-popping +3.45 strokes with his irons.

Amongst the other contenders, the only one I can see giving him a run for his money is Corey Conners. Russell Henley has gained an unsustainable +2.18 strokes per round with his chipping, and Jason Day's +2.00 strokes per round with his putting is likely to regress. If Conners can sustain his strong approach play today, he'll give himself plenty of birdie opportunities, but his driver has abandoned him at times this week, and he doesn't have a great history of closing big events.

The odds may not be exciting, but Morikawa is the play. He's available at +105 at FanDuel this morning.

Pick: Collin Morikawa +105 (via FanDuel)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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