Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina Prediction, Odds for Australian Open Final

Two-time Australian Open winner Aryna Sabalenka is back in the final, as she’ll take on No. 5 Elena Rybakina for the 15th time in her career.

Sabalenka, the No. 1 player in the world, dominated Elina Svitolina in the semifinals, winning 6-2, 6-3 to reach her fourth consecutive Australian Open final. Sabelenka fell short in the final in 2025, but she’s favored to win this match with Rybakina.

The No. 5 player in the world, Rybakina has knocked off No. 2 Iga Swiatek and No. 6 Jessica Pegula in back-to-back rounds, and she has yet to drop a set at this year’s Australian Open. Rybakina has not been in a Grand Slam final since she lost to Sabalenka in the 2023 Australian Open final.

Can the 26-year-old get revenge in 2026?

Here’s a look at the odds, each player’s path to the final and my prediction for this match.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina Odds and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

Aryna Sabalenka: -165
Elena Rybakina: +135

Total

22.5 (Over -120/Under -120)

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina How to Watch

Date: Saturday, Jan. 31
Time: 3:30 a.m. EST
How to Watch (TV): ESPN/ESPN+

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina History and Path to Final

This is the 15th time that Sabalenka and Rybakina have met in their careers, and they’ve played some classic matches.

Sabalenka has the all-time edge with eight wins to Rybakina’s six, but they have split their last 10 matches dating back to the 2023 Australian Open final. In 2025, Rybakina beat Sabalenka in the WTA Finals and the Cincinnati Open while the No. 1 player in the world won their meetings in the quarterfinals in Wuhan and in Berlin.

These two are about as evenly matched as it gets, but Sabalenka has had more Grand Slam success in her career, winning four titles to Rybakina’s one.

Aryna Sabalenka

The two-time Australian Open champ has not lost a set at this year’s tournament, but Rybakina will be the first top-10 player that she’ll face.

Sabalenka is in her fourth consecutive Australian Open final, so there’s no doubt that she can win at Melbourne Park. However, Rybakina has given her trouble in the past, even though Sabalenka has won both of their matches at a Grand Slam event.

The 27-year-old is favored to win this match, as she’s won four of the last six Grand Slams on hard courts (the U.S. Open and Australian Open).

Elena Rybakina

This is the best performance Rybakina’s had at the Australian Open since 2023, and it’s just her third appearance in a Grand Slam final.

Rybakina has knocked off back-to-back top-six players, and she’s lost no more than seven games in all but one of her matches (the semifinal against Pegula) in this tournament.

She also defeated Sabalenka in their last meeting in 2025 at the WTA Finals.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina Prediction and Pick

Eight of the 14 matches between these two stars have gone to three sets, so I don’t mind bettors that want to make a play on the OVER in total games in this Grand Slam final.

However, I can’t pass up Sabalenka at this price in an event that she’s dominated the past three years. The No. 1 player in the world has been nearly unbeatable on hard courts, and she is one of the few players who wins more of their service games than Rybakina.

The No. 5 player in the world enters this match winning 81.2 percent of her service games in 2026, but Sabalenka has won a whopping 90.7 percent of her service games. In addition to that, the two-time Australian Open champion is winning more of her return games (40.9 percent) than Rybakina this year.

Now, Rybakina has converted 55.0 percent of her break points (far better than Sabalenka’s 39.8 percent), but I ultimately side with the world’s top player to bounce back from her loss at Melbourne Park in 2025.

Rybakina has played in just two Grand Slam finals in her career, and as great as she’s been in this tournament, she needed 22 games (and a tiebreak) to get past Pegula in the semifinals.

It may not be fun to make a chalky pick, but Sabalenka is a steal at -165 given her recent dominance.

Pick: Sabalenka to Win (-165 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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